KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 12): MBSB Research expects fourth quarter (4Q) gross domestic product (GDP) growth to come in at 5.9%, above advance estimates.

The upward revision, it said in its note, is mainly due to higher growth from stronger domestic spending and investment activities in addition to faster expansion in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors.

Malaysia is set to announce the 4Q GDP numbers tomorrow on Feb 13, 2026. 

It said based on recent supply data, the services sector is expected to grow faster than the earlier estimate of 5.4% year-on-year, reaching 6.5% in the fourth quarter, driven by most sub-sectors except arts, entertainment, recreation, personal services, private education, and professional/admin support.

Manufacturing growth is expected to match the earlier estimate of 6%, while construction and mining growth could be slower due to weaker construction activity and natural gas output.

MBSB Research said while exports have improved, higher imports limit the net contribution to growth. Construction and mining showed only moderate growth, keeping overall gains in check.

Looking ahead to 2026, MBSB Research expects GDP growth to be more moderate due to a high base and less front-loading of trade. Geopolitical risks and potential trade barriers could also affect business sentiment and global supply chains.