This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on December 8, 2025 - December 14, 2025

THE dust has barely settled after the Nov 29 Sabah state polls and already, political parties — both in the government and the opposition — are recalibrating their strategies for the next election cycle.

The immediate focal point is Melaka, where the Barisan Nasional (BN)-led state assembly’s five-year term ends next December. While the 16th general election (GE16) is only due by February 2028, there is increasing speculation that parties may push for a coordinated national polls to run concurrently with the Melaka state contest.

Within the unity government, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) has been the most vocal proponent of aligning federal and state polls to save costs and streamline campaigning. But the party is now grappling with its own electoral setback in Sabah.

Party sources indicate that DAP is considering reviewing its role in the unity government by mid-2026 if key reforms it has been pushing for do not materialise. 

The trigger for this is the sharp swing in Chinese votes in Sabah away from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which they had backed solidly for more than a decade. The development also prompts the question: Is the sentiment among Chinese voters in Sabah a reflection of that of their counterparts in the peninsula?

DAP lost all eight of the seats it contested in Sabah — including six seats it won in 2020, five of which it secured with supermajorities of more than 50%.Its average vote share plunged from 78% to just 27%, as reported by Bangi member of parliament (MP) Ong Kian Ming.

Its coalition partner, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), also struggled, winning only one of the dozen seats it contested, compared to two wins in the 2020 state election. And this sole victory came from a candidate who had parachuted from Sabah-based Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

Three days after the devastating defeat, DAP convened an emergency Central Executive Committee (CEC) meeting on Dec 2. Following that, secretary-general Anthony Loke issued a statement acknowledging that “it is undeniable that this election reflects a serious crisis of confidence faced by both DAP and PH”.

Loke pledged that the party would work with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to accelerate reforms “over the next six months”. While it is unclear at this point which reforms are at the top of the list, party adviser Lim Guan Eng has repeatedly urged the government to review the expanded sales and service tax, e-invoicing and other tax requirements that he claims are hurting small businesses.

DAP currently has 40 MPs in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat, out of the 153 MPs aligned with the unity government. The tally includes six ex-Bersatu MPs who back the government but remain seated with the opposition bloc. A simple majority requires 112 MPs.

Political analyst Oh Ei Sun, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia, tells The Edge that the coalition is being perceived as “compromising on its reformist brand” on matters like corruption, due to its partnership with BN and GRS, whose leaders are linked to numerous graft allegations.

This stance has “alienated its core reformist supporters”, says Oh, adding that the same dynamics are “applicable at the federal level” — hence the alarm bells ringing at PH.

Despite this, Oh thinks the Sabah polls outcome will “not really” move up the GE16 timeline to 2026. He points to Anwar’s comment that the current cabinet line-up would remain in place for “a year plus or a year and a half” — a remark widely read as signalling an election window around then.

Oh says the unity government could instead choose to stretch the term to its full length and delay GE16 until 2028, to allow its policies time to work and build public support. He cautions, however, that external risks, including a slumping world economy “that could further dent [the incumbent’s] chances”, make that path uncertain as well.

Under Malaysia’s federal system, parliament and state assemblies have separate constitutional terms, though they often dissolve simultaneously. This pattern changed after the 2021 political fragmentation triggered by the Sheraton Move, which led several states to hold their elections independently.

While parliament is dissolved at the discretion of the prime minister, state assemblies are dissolved by their respective menteri besar or chief ministers.

For Anwar, the Sabah results and DAP’s position place both him and PH at a crossroads.

Some observers argue that Anwar has taken for granted the multi-ethnic core that backed PH up to the Sabah polls, focusing instead on competing for Malay voters — more than half of whom swung to Perikatan Nasional (PN) in 2022 and 2023.

“The PM needs to decide on his next course of action, whether to woo back PH’s core supporters or continue to work on penetrating the Malay heartlands,” an insider says.

The same insider nonetheless dismisses speculation of rifts within PH, saying: “PKR and DAP have been together through thick and thin and will continue to do so.”

It was reported that the prime minister will take a few weeks’ leave to reflect on the situation, including the composition of his three-year-old cabinet. The insider suggests that a major cabinet reshuffle will signal that GE16 will be held later rather than sooner.

Meanwhile, Sunway University political scientist Prof Wong Chin Huat warns that synchronising federal and state polls could cut both ways for the incumbent.

“Putting all eggs in the same basket is a big gamble,” Wong says, adding that allowing Johor and Melaka to vote before federal and other state elections could enable more localised campaigns and give parties room to experiment and fine-tune strategies.

According to Wong, DAP’s next moves will be heavily influenced by Anwar’s willingness to address corruption allegations involving his allies, and to curb what critics see as a “minority witch-hunt” by figures such as Umno Youth chief Datuk Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh.

“DAP would be hard-pressed to consider loosening its ties with Anwar before GE16. Very likely, the party would split in the middle,” he says.

Melaka has a history of serving as a test bed for national strategy.

In 2021, when Umno’s Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob was prime minister, BN relied on its core base to secure a two-thirds majority in the state assembly, winning 21 of 28 seats with a turnout of just 65.85%.

Johor followed in March 2022, where BN again won two-thirds control with 40 of 56 seats. Voter turnout slipped to 54.92%, as many younger and automatically-registered voters under Undi18 stayed home.

Those two contests emboldened BN’s leadership and grassroots to push for an early general election. Ismail Sabri eventually agreed and dissolved parliament in October 2022, about 10 months before the deadline. The gamble failed. BN recorded its worst-ever performance in a general election, winning just 30 seats, compared with PH’s 82 and PN’s 74.

On the other side, PN’s largest component, PAS, is also understood to be preparing for a possible nationwide vote as early as end-2026, to coincide with the Melaka election season. After Melaka, Sarawak’s state election is due in April 2027 and Johor’s in June 2027 (see Table 2). It is worth noting that since Malaysia’s formation, Sarawak has traditionally held its state polls separately from the general election.

If GE16 is brought forward to match Melaka’s timeline, it could follow the GE15 playbook: an election held in November after the federal budget is tabled but before the monsoon intensifies.

Staging it in the first quarter of 2027 (1Q2027) is seen as unlikely, given that Ramadan and Hari Raya fall during that period. It also makes sense from the perspective of campaigning and costs, according to one party member.

At the same time, PH is not the only bloc in need of a reset after Sabah.

PN’s Bersatu, like DAP, was wiped out in the state, hampered by limited machinery and funding. The party is facing growing grassroots discontent and “no longer enjoys the incumbent advantage”, Oh says.

During campaigning in Sabah, some areas had two operations rooms — each set up by the warring factions that support either president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin or opposition leader Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin. With Bersatu mired in internal disputes, its main partner PAS is pressed to reassess its alliances and future strategy.

Umno managed to hang on to just five seats, while GRS and Warisan consolidated their positions as the main poles of Sabah politics.

With both PH and Bersatu weakened in Sabah, some Umno factions are expected to continue exploring their options ahead of GE16, though discussions remain at an early stage.

The rise in Warisan’s vote share to about 25% of the popular vote underscores the people’s appetite for a fresher alternative. But unlike in Sabah, where Warisan could position itself as an option distinct from both PH and PN, no similar third force has emerged in Peninsular Malaysia. Warisan is also unlikely to expand aggressively westward, wary of again being seen at home as neglecting Sabah rights — a perception that cost it dearly in GE15, as it managed to secure only three parliamentary seats, down from the eight it held before that.

See also “Tax issues play havoc with DAP’s support”  

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