This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 17, 2025 - November 23, 2025

Malaysia submitted its latest nationally determined contribution (NDC), which is an emissions reduction target, to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat in late October. However, some of the details — such as the projected peak emissions and the scenario used — are unclear.

For context, countries that are party to the Paris Agreement are supposed to submit an updated or enhanced NDC every five years from 2020 onwards. This is the third NDC that Malaysia has submitted.

In this NDC 3.0, the government says current projections indicate that national greenhouse gas emissions are expected to peak between 2029 and 2034. The country aims to peak its emissions by 2030, subject to the availability of support and enabling conditions.

Based on this trajectory, Malaysia aims to achieve an absolute reduction of 15 to 30 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq) by 2035 from the peak level, comprising an unconditional reduction of up to 20 MtCO2eq and a further 10 MtCO2eq reduction, conditional upon the provision of climate finance, technology transfer and capacity-building support from international sources.

This is a step up from NDC 2.0, where Malaysia aimed to reduce 45% of emissions intensity (against gross domestic product) in 2030, compared with 2005 levels.

As at 2021, according to Malaysia’s fourth biennial transparency report (BTR), Malaysia has reduced 37.12% of carbon emissions intensity. The new NDC is more ambitious, promising absolute emissions reduction.

However, what is the peak level of emissions that Malaysia has projected, which it expects to reach by 2030 or at the latest by 2034? And how will this support Malaysia’s announced goal to achieve net zero emissions by 2050?

ESG’s questions to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability had not yet been answered at press time.

According to the Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) document published by the government in February this year, which lays out the path for Malaysia to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, in the “with existing measures (WEM)” scenario, net emissions will reach a high of 148 MtCO2eq in 2030.

But it will decline and then pick up to the same level again in 2050, meaning emissions are not expected to peak by 2030.

The increase in emissions by 2050 is projected to be driven by the expansion in the manufacturing sector under the industrial processes and product use category (IPPU) and by waste sector emissions that will increase with population growth and urbanisation.

It is only in the “with additional measures (WAM)” scenario that Malaysia’s emissions will peak in 2030 (133 MtCO2eq).

To get there, however, there must be at least 70% penetration of renewable energy in the power sector by 2050, electric vehicle sales penetration of up to 80% by 2050, greater carbon capture, utilisation and storage — with an unspecified target — and plant electrification in the oil and gas sector, increased decarbonisation in manufacturing and lower deforestation.

Additionally, the rise in waste emissions is more gradual in the WAM scenario because of an increase in waste-to-energy plants.

If the NDC 3.0 is based on the WAM scenario, where emissions peak in 2030 at 133 MtCO2eq, that means Malaysia will reduce 20 MtCO2eq unconditionally by 2035 to reach 113 MtCO2eq by 2035 or 30 MtCO2eq to reach 103 MtCO2eq by 2035 if the conditional criteria are met.

Under either scenario, if Malaysia achieves its NDC by 2035, the expected net emissions will be lower than projected by the LT-LEDS (refer to table).

It must be noted that under WAM and WEM scenarios, Malaysia would not reach net zero by 2050.

Perhaps, with this new NDC 3.0, the path towards net zero by 2050 could be more achievable but, currently, there is no publicly available information on how Malaysia will get there. It is also unclear how the expected carbon taxes by 2026 will affect the trajectory.

The latest NDC includes accompanying information on adaptation strategies to climate change. The last time these projections were published in an official document to the United Nations was in the Fourth National Communication Report in April 2024.

Average annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.7 to 2.1°C by 2100, which intensifies water demand and heat stress. There will be more variability in rainfall and more severity of floods and frequency of dry spells expected, according to the NDC 3.0 document.

Flood-prone areas in Peninsular Malaysia are expected to expand by more than 5% and rainfall will be reduced by up to 22% in northern regions by 2050. Sea levels may rise by as much as 0.74m by 2100, which could potentially inundate almost 77% more coastal land area.

The National Adaptation Plan to address these risks is scheduled for completion in 2026.

The adaptation priorities include managing water resources and security, where non-revenue water is to be reduced to 30% and reserve margins of at least 15% secured for all states; integrated river basin management is to be expanded; and the national flood forecasting and early-warning systems are to be strengthened.

Other priorities are to mainstream sea level rise adaptation and protect coastal resources; ensure agricultural sustainability and food security; increase resilience of infrastructure and cities; improve public health resilience; and protect and conserve forests and biodiversity.

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