This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on October 20, 2025 - October 26, 2025
Malaysia is hosting the 47th Asean Summit from Oct 26 to 28, which is expected to see the attendance of US President Donald Trump and a partial closure of certain parts of Kuala Lumpur.
Apart from Trump, a number of world leaders are expected to attend, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Leaders from the region — Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Laotian Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone and Timor-Leste’s Jose Alexandre Gusmao — will also be present.
The summit is expected to focus on regional economic integration, security cooperation and energy transition, alongside sideline dialogues with major partners such as the US, India and China.
Also this week, Malaysia will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September on Oct 22.
According to Bloomberg and UOB Global Economics and Markets Research, headline inflation is forecast to rise 1.4% year on year (y-o-y), up slightly from 1.3% in August, reflecting higher food and transport costs.
It will be a short trading week for the stock markets of Malaysia and Singapore as both will be closed on Oct 20 for the Deepavali holiday.
Across the Causeway, attention will turn to Singapore’s September CPI and industrial production (IP) data. On Oct 23, the September CPI data is to be released, and both Bloomberg and UOB estimate headline inflation at 0.6% y-o-y (from 0.5% in August) and core CPI at 0.2% y-o-y (from 0.3%). September IP data will be announced the following day (Oct 24) and consensus projects a rebound of 8.6% month on month (m-o-m) after August’s -9.7% decline. But output is still forecast to contract 2.2% y-o-y. UOB projects a slightly stronger recovery of 9.2% m-o-m and 0.5% y-o-y, reflecting gradual improvement in the electronics sector.
Elsewhere in the region, attention will centre on China’s Fourth Plenum of the 20th Communist Party Central Committee which convenes from Oct 20 to 23 to discuss proposals for the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The blueprint outlines the economic, social and environmental development goals for the period.
UOB economist Ho Woei Chen expects policy efforts to double down on strengthening national security, bolstering high-tech manufacturing, expanding consumption (including for services), strengthening the social safety net, structural reforms and opening up of the economy.
China will release its 3Q gross domestic product data on Oct 20, which both Bloomberg and UOB estimate at 4.7% growth y-o-y. The release will be accompanied by September data on IP, retail sales, surveyed jobless rate and new home prices.
Two major central banks are due monetary policy decisions this week, starting with Bank Indonesia on Oct 22, where five out of nine analysts expect a 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut to 4.5%, while the remaining four project rates will be kept steady. UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja notes that the monetary easing cycle in Indonesia is not done yet, though it is close to reaching the end of it. He expects a further 25bps cut at this October meeting to 4.5% and subsequently another 25bps in 1Q2026 to reach 4.25% and to remain there throughout 2026.
The attention shifts to the Bank of Korea on Oct 23, with markets divided, although most expect the policy rate to stay at 2.5%.
Elsewhere, Australia and India will release their October PMI surveys on Oct 24 while New Zealand reports September trade data on Oct 21.
Thailand’s September exports (Oct 20) and Taiwan’s industrial production (Oct 23) will also provide further cues on the region’s manufacturing outlook.
It will be a huge earnings week in the US with the “Magnificent 7” releasing their third-quarter results as well as 90 S&P 500 companies.
Investors will also focus on the rescheduled September CPI report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, due Oct 24 after being postponed from Oct 15.
Bloomberg expects headline CPI to rise 0.4% m-o-m and 3.1% y-o-y (from 0.4% m-o-m and 2.9% y-o-y in August) with core CPI at 0.3% m-o-m and 3.1% y-o-y, unchanged from the previous month.
If the US government shutdown extends further into October, this CPI report may be the last major data release before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct 28–29, UOB says.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings will conclude on Oct 18 with final-day appearances by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB policymakers Joachim Nagel and Piero Cipollone.
In the local courts, submissions will begin in former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s 1MDB–Tanore trial, which has been ongoing for nearly seven years but is inching closer to a verdict.
The prosecution and Najib’s defence will present their submissions before Court of Appeal judge Datuk Collin Lawrence Sequerah over nine days, after which he will set a date to deliver his verdict on the 25 charges of abuse of power and money laundering against Najib.
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