KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 9): Malaysia Smelting Corporation Bhd (KL:MSC) will see its earnings rebound in 2026, thanks to rising tin prices amid tightening supply and demand growth, Apex Securities said.
Net profit will likely moderate this year from lower feedstock availability and downtime at its Pulau Indah smelter, the research house flagged in an initiation note on the company. Once production returns to normal, however, earnings could jump 50% in 2026, according to its estimates.
“Output is anticipated to stabilise and gradually improve by 2027, supported by better plant utilisation at Pulau Indah and improved input supply,” the house said.
Apex Securities is joining coverage of MSC with a “buy” call and target price of RM1.51. UOB Kay Hian is the only other research house covering the stock, also with “buy” call and target price of RM1.37.
Shares of MSC, one of the world’s largest producers of tin metal and tin-based products, have risen 17% so far this year, thanks to strong prices. The company could refine up to 60,000 tonnes of tin annually from ores out of its mines in Perak and Pahang.
Prices of tin, used to make tinplate for food packaging and solder for electronics, surged to over three-year high in March amid supply disruption from Indonesia and Myanmar. A gas pipeline explosion in April also disrupted production at MSC that produces about a quarter of the annual global refined tin supply, and helped keep prices elevated.
The metal has since eased off highs to around US$34,262 per tonne, but still well above the 10-year pre-pandemic average of US$20,000 to US$22,000.
“We believe this uptrend will persist, underpinned by persistent supply constraints and robust demand stemming from the proliferation of electric vehicles, increased consumption of electronic devices, and the global push towards ESG (environmental, social, and governance)-aligned initiatives,” Apex Securities said.
Global tin supply remains limited by Myanmar’s export ban, mining curbs in Indonesia and Africa, and declining ore grades worldwide, the house noted.
As one of the few smelters certified by the London Metal Exchange with partial upstream integration, “MSC is well-positioned to benefit from tighter spreads, elevated smelting premiums, and rising tin prices,” Apex Securities added.