As the saying goes, “nature abhors a vacuum”. When the old order dies and the new order is yet to be born, there will be a vacuum, and with a vacuum comes conflicts, until a new equilibrium is finally reached.

The global shift that we are dealing with could be the greatest change since the end of the Second World War, when most nations in Southeast Asia had not attained independence yet.

But there was a period of volatility which Asean was familiar with. In fact, the founding of Asean 58 years ago had a lot to do with two intertwined historic events.

First, the British withdrawal from the East of Suez. In 1964, the British's defence presence in Malaysia and Singapore was the largest and most expensive component of the country’s world-wide role. As the British economy was in shambles, the Members of Parliament from the ruling Labour Party revolted over the defence policy in early 1967, forcing the Harold Wilson government to withdraw the military bases in Singapore and Malaysia that year. In 1968, the British government announced the full withdrawal of military presence from the East of Suez by 1971.

Up until then, Singapore and Malaysia depended heavily on Britain for external defence. To put this into context, the first two Chiefs of Armed Forces of Malaya were foreigners. The first Malaysian to helm the position was the late General Tunku Osman Mohammad Jewa, who took over in 1964. The first Malaysian Air Force Chief, Air Vice Marshall Tan Sri Sulaiman Sujak, who is 91 years old now, took over from a foreigner in 1968. Likewise, the first Malaysian Navy Chief, Tan Sri K Thanabalansingam, who is 89 years old now, took over as Chief from a foreigner, also in 1968.

Second, the end of the Malaysia-Indonesia Konfrontasi. The British security “umbrella” was even more important because Malaysia (together with Singapore when it was part of the Federation) fought a low-level but no less deadly war with Sukarno’s Indonesia from 1963 to 1965 over the formation of Malaysia.

By 1967, the Suharto government and Malaysia warmed up to each other bilaterally. Yet the peace between the two nations was achieved against the backdrop of the Vietnam War which drew in hundreds of thousands of American troops to Southeast Asia. At the same time, China was mired in the chaotic Cultural Revolution which had spilt over into Hong Kong and other parts of Southeast Asia.

In short, Asean was formed in 1967 to solidify the new found peace between Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as to avoid wars among member states in a time of chaos. It was also influenced by the fear of the domino theory during the Cold War era — if South Vietnam fell to the North Vietnamese communists, other Southeast Asian countries could also become victims of communism.

The lessons that we can draw upon are:

The Kuala Lumpur Declaration of 1971 to make Southeast Asia the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) is a non-aligned vision that we in Asean still hold on to dearly.

I take this tour of history because we are in a time of unprecedented crisis and change, knowing that history gives us the rocks to step upon as we attempt to cross the river into the unknown.

That was then.

Since the end of the Cold War, and as the multiple conflicts in Indo-China drew to a close in the 1990s, Asean has grown by leaps and bounds economically. But just like the East Asian economies, Asean has gotten rich by pursuing an export-led industrialisation strategy that presupposed the US as the final destination for our exports. Asean also benefited from a very young population over the past few decades, enabling the region to prosper.

There was also a lack of concern about climate change and the environment as Asean grew in the past decades. The thinking among most leaders at the time was that to develop means we have to sacrifice the environment.

As the economies were vertically integrated with foreign investors but not exactly linked to each other, often the Asean economies saw each other as competitors.

The prevalent idea then was for the government to negotiate trade deals and to liberalise trade flow, and the rest would be done by the private sector.

This means the Asean Secretariat was not equipped with the capacity and capability to integrate Asean economies beyond just the trade deals that we signed. There was no serious Asean industrial policy, the financial markets were not exactly integrated, and there was no public money or blended financing to advance a common agenda in a big way.

Now we are facing a complex polycrisis. This means we need a bold re-framing of the situation that we are in right now.

First, peace is no longer guaranteed, and misunderstandings could escalate into conflicts very quickly. The recent Cambodia-Thailand border war is a cautionary tale. Asean leaders, especially Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, should be commended for his quick and successful peace-making efforts. But we must go one step further to ensure that we could avoid and prevent wars before even the first shot is fired.

Second, the export-led industrialisation strategy is ending, or at least it is no longer the same. The US doesn’t want to be the consumer of the first or last resort for foreign countries.

We will have to create a middle class among our midst to turn Asean into a consumer base, and not just a production base. To have a strong middle class in Asean means that the world will have more than the current three large consumer markets: namely, the US, Europe, and China, which in turn would enhance Asean’s leverage over other regions.

Third, Asean must grow richer before it gets older, and we need to be more empathetic and inclusive in our economic policies. We are becoming an ageing society at a rapid pace. We cannot afford to have hundreds of millions of people, both poor and old, which is a recipe for political and societal disaster. We need to think about how to grow the incomes of our population and provide better care for our people.

Fourth, climate change is real, and this region is the most vulnerable. We must summon courage, political will, and blended financing that could be deployed to move the needle fast enough to avert the climate crisis. The Asean Power Grid is a great idea that needs financing and it is also crucial that it will improve equitability, bringing power to ordinary people who never had access to energy.

Fifth, Asean needs much more funding to create common goods, such as a Secretariat that has more resources, capacity, and capability.

All these must be done sooner than later. Allow me to borrow the quote from our prime minister during his speech last week in Jakarta when he said:

“… We cannot afford an Asean that is weak, fragmented or in conflict with each other — our national fortunes rise or fall with the region. In these increasingly polarised times, Asean must continue to harness its convening power to advance dialogue, diplomacy, and strategic trust, while fostering space for meaningful cooperation.”

The Asean Community Vision 2045, which was adopted on 26 May 2025 at the 46th Summit in Kuala Lumpur, provides a comprehensive framework emphasising a resilient, innovative, dynamic, and people-centred Asean.

We will strengthen political-security cooperation to sustain peace and stability, accelerate economic integration underpinned by digital transformation and sustainable growth, and foster socio-cultural development that leaves no one behind. Enhanced connectivity within Asean will ensure we are more integrated and agile to face future uncertainties together.

As the Asean anthem goes, “we dare to dream, we care to share”. Let us build a peaceful, resilient, inclusive and sustainable Asean.

This is an excerpt from the keynote address by Liew Chin Tong, the deputy minister of investment, trade and industry, at the commemoration of the 58th Asean Day and the 7th Asean Economic Integration Forum on Aug 8 in Kuala Lumpur.