KUALA LUMPUR (July 11): Malaysia is projected to undergo a significant demographic shift over the next three decades, with the Bumiputera population expected to make up nearly 80% of the total population by 2060.
According to new demographic projections released by the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), the Bumiputera population is set to rise from 69.4% in 2020 to 79.4% in 2060.
“Although the population will continue to grow from 2020 to 2059, the annual growth rate is projected to slow sharply from 1.7% in 2020 to just 0.1% in 2060,” said chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin in a statement.
In contrast, the proportion of Chinese Malaysians is expected to decline from 23.2% to 14.8%, while the Indian population is projected to shrink from 6.7% to 4.7%.
The ‘others’ category, meanwhile, is expected to grow modestly, from 0.7% in 2020 to 1.0% by 2060.
By gender, the number of men will consistently outnumber women, from a ratio of 1.1 in 2020, to 1.14 in 2060.
Malaysia’s total population is projected to peak at 42.38 million in 2059. However, beginning in 2060, the number is expected to decline slightly to 42.37 million, followed by continued decreases to 42.08 million in 2065 and 41.43 million by 2070.
Despite the overall slowdown, the populations of Kelantan, Pahang, Perak, Terengganu and Putrajaya are expected to continue rising steadily through 2060.
Selangor is projected to remain Malaysia’s most populous state in 2060, with 8.10 million residents, followed by Johor (4.99 million) and Sabah (4.89 million).
Ageing nation by 2036
According to the National Policy for Older Persons, Malaysia will also be classified as an "ageing nation" by 2036, when 15% of the population is expected to be aged 60 and above.
Malaysia’s shift toward an ageing society is also becoming increasingly evident. The proportion of population aged 0 to 14 is projected to decline from 24% in 2020 to 16% in 2060, while the working-age group (aged 15 to 64) is expected to peak at 70.8% in 2030 before falling to 65.7% by 2060.
The share of those aged 65 and above is projected to more than double, from 6.8% in 2020 to 18.3% by 2060. Malaysia is expected to become an aged society by 2048, when more than 14% of the population will be aged 65 and above.
By 2030, most states are projected to see an increase in their working-age populations, with the exception of Penang, Perlis and Terengganu. Putrajaya is expected to record the highest rise, with its working-age population increasing by 13.6 percentage points to 74.2%, up from 60.6% in 2020.
Looking ahead to 2060, Kuala Lumpur is forecast to have the lowest proportion of young people at just 9.1%, while also recording the highest share of elderly residents at 26.2%.
By then, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Penang are expected to become “super-aged societies”, where more than 20% of the population will be aged 65 and above. All other states — except Kelantan and Terengganu — are projected to reach “aged society” status by 2060.