This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 7, 2025 - July 13, 2025
After a 90-day tariff pause and much uncertainty, Malaysia’s trade deal with the US will finally be made known next week. US President Donald Trump had announced last Friday (July 4) that his administration would be sending out “10 to 12 letters to trading partners on Friday and over the next few days” setting unilateral tariff rates, which would take effect from Aug 1.
“I think by the ninth they will be fully covered,” Trump said, referring to a July 9 deadline he had initially set for countries to reach deals with the US to avoid the higher import duties that he has threatened. “They will range in value from maybe 60% or 70% tariffs to 10% and 20% tariffs.”
Trump announced higher “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2 —calling it “Liberation Day” — but delayed implementation for 90 days to allow time for negotiations, while imposing a 10% global baseline tariff in the meantime.
So far, his administration has announced deals with the UK and Vietnam while agreeing to a truce with China as well as a framework for trade negotiations. AmInvestment Bank has projected that Malaysia is likely to secure a trade deal that involves a 10% to 24% levy on exports to the US.
Also due on Wednesday is a monetary policy decision by Bank Negara Malaysia. “Based on the latest Bloomberg survey (on July 4), eight of the 15 economists polled expect Bank Negara to cut its OPR (overnight policy rate) by 25 basis points to 2.75%, but there is a sizeable minority (of seven) expecting another pause at 3%,” UOB Global Economics & Markets Research senior economist Alvin Liew says in a July 4 report. He notes that UOB economists Julia Goh and Jasrine Loke side with the majority, citing recent weak economic data and heightened external uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions that could dampen domestic demand.
“An expected adjustment to the OPR is intended to ensure that the domestic economy continues on a steady growth path amid stable inflation and is supportive of financial intermediation for the Malaysian economy,” Liew says.
The Department of Statistics Malaysia will release Labour Force Statistics for May and Monthly Manufacturing Statistics on Thursday, as well as Industrial Production Index and population projections data (for 2020 to 2060) on Friday. Three major Asia-Pacific central banks are also due to make a monetary policy decision during the week: the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday; and the Bank of Korea on Thursday.
Singapore is likely to release its advance estimates for second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on July 14. Bloomberg estimates growth at 3.1% year on year compared with 3.9% in the first quarter. The city state will also be releasing June foreign reserves data on Monday and a mid-week Certificate of Entitlement on Wednesday.
Other key Asia-Pacific data releases include Vietnam’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI), industrial production, trade and retail sales on July 6.
Key data from China includes its June official foreign reserves finding on Monday, which Bloomberg estimates at US$3.313 trillion, up from US$3.285 trillion in May; CPI and Producer Price Index on Wednesday; and monetary data, including new renminbi loans for June as well as M2, from July 9 to 15.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s June CPI data is due on Monday, while Taiwan will release both its June CPI and trade data on Tuesday. South Korea’s first 10-day trade data for July will be out on July 11.
Over in the US, the Federal Reserve will release its June Federal Open Market Committee minutes on July 10. “The market[s] will look for affirmation of a Fed pause as Fed policymakers wait for additional data to gauge the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy,” says UOB’s Liew.
In terms of data, the NFIB small business optimism survey for June, New York Fed one-year inflation expectation for June, and May consumer credit will be released on Tuesday; followed by May wholesale trade sales on Wednesday; initial jobless claims for the week ended July 5 on Thursday; and Federal Budget balance for June on Friday.
For the corporate earnings reporting season in the US, the focus this week will be on major US banks. Meanwhile, key G7 economic data includes Japan’s nominal labour cash earnings on Monday and May monthly GDP for the UK on Friday.
In Malaysia, Bursa Malaysia-listed companies that will hold annual general meetings include KYM Holdings Bhd (KL:KYM) and SNS Network Technology Bhd (KL:SNS) on Thursday. Pos Malaysia Bhd (KL:POS), Golden Land Bhd (KL:GLBHD) and Scope Industries Bhd (KL:SCOPE) are scheduled to hold their extraordinary general meetings the following day.
Over at the courts, oral submissions in SRC International Sdn Bhd’s RM4 billion civil suit against former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak will be heard in the High Court on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Federal Court will continue to hear Attorney-General Tan Sri Mohd Dusuki Mokhtar’s appeal against a Court of Appeal decision on a purported royal addendum that allows Najib to serve the remainder of his prison sentence under house arrest.
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