This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 14, 2025 - April 20, 2025

China’s President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to Malaysia from April 15 to 17 as part of his Southeast Asia tour, marking a high-profile personal diplomatic engagement for Xi amid escalating trade tensions with the US. It was reported that Xi will visit Vietnam from April 14 to 15, followed by Malaysia and Cambodia from April 15 to 18. His last visit to Malaysia was 12 years ago.

All eyes will be on the meeting between Xi and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, given Malaysia’s chairmanship of Asean this year.

Xi’s visit coincides with President Donald Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods entering the US.

Malaysia’s advance gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter of 2025 (1Q2025) is scheduled for release on April 18. Bloomberg and UOB Global Economics & Markets Research estimates show that the country’s economy could grow by 4.8% year on year, slightly lower than the 5% y-o-y growth in 4Q2024.

Bank Negara Malaysia has maintained its 2025 GDP forecast of 4.5% to 5.5%, despite the tariff changes initiated by Trump, but Bank Negara governor Datuk Seri Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said last week that the figure is now under review as the 24% tariff on Malaysian exports to the US was higher than anticipated.

Also on April 18, the Department of Statistics Malaysia will announce March trade data. UOB Global estimates that export growth will moderate to 1.5% y-o-y in March, compared with 6.2% y-o-y in February. Imports are estimated to grow by 1%, down from 5.5% in February. Nevertheless, the research house projects that the country’s trade surplus will increase to RM13.4 billion in March from RM12.6 billion in February.

Regionally, China is also set to release its 1Q2025 GDP on April 16, with Bloomberg consensus estimate at 5.2% y-o-y growth and UOB Global projecting 5.4%.

Other key releases from China this week include March trade numbers, retail sales, industrial production and property investment figures.

The Bank of Korea (BoK) is the only major central bank in Asia-Pacific scheduled to make a monetary policy decision this week. According to a Bloomberg survey (as of April 11), all three economists polled (including UOB’s Ho Woei Chen) expect BoK to keep the policy base rate unchanged at 2.75%.

“The forward guidance in the February meeting indicated that BoK may pause in April, after which we think the BoK may deliver an additional 25-basis-point cut at the May 29 meeting before stopping to reassess if further monetary easing is needed. An earlier rather than later rate cut will be more favourable for the economic outlook, but the central bank will also consider the impact on the currency as well as the size and timing of the extra budget,” UOB Global said in an April 11 report.

Across the causeway, the key event will be the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s April quarterly Monetary Policy Statement which will be released on April 14 (Monday) together with the Ministry of Trade & Industry’s advance 1Q2025 GDP data.

UOB Global’s economist has downgraded Singapore’s full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% (from 2.5% previously).

Thailand’s markets will be closed for the Songkran festival on April 14 and 15, while several Asia-Pacific economies, including Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Singapore, India and Indonesia, will be closed for Good Friday on April 18.

Several senior officials at the US Federal Reserve are due to speak this week. The main focus will be on chair Jerome Powell, who will speak to the Economic Club of Chicago on April 17.

A slew of economic data will be released this week in the US, with markets watching retail sales, industrial production figures and US initial jobless claims.

The US corporate earnings season is another highlight of the week, with the early focus still on major US banks.

In the local courts, 1MDB’s US$6.59 billion civil suit against former CEO Arul Kanda and Tan Sri Irwan Serigar continues, with Arul Kanda to be cross-examined by 1MDB’s counsel.

The 1MDB-Tanore trial continues on Tuesday (April 15), with Brian Chia, a former partner at Wong & Partners — the legal firm which advised the troubled state strategic development firm — expected to take the stand.

On Wednesday (April 16), the Kuala Lumpur High Court will hear an application by Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to initiate committal proceedings against former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad for contempt of court. The proceedings relate to a defamation suit brought by Mahathir against Zahid.

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