(March 25): US consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest in four years on concerns about higher prices and the economic outlook amid the Trump administration’s escalating tariffs.

The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7.2 points to 92.9, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 94.

A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped nearly 10 points to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years, while a gauge of present conditions declined more modestly.

Consumer sentiment surveys from The Conference Board and University of Michigan have been dismal of late as households fear a resurgence in inflation from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Companies have warned of higher prices and less demand, coinciding with economists’ forecasts that suggest a risk of stagflation and rising odds of recession.

Inflation expectations over the coming year increased to the highest level in two years. A similar metric from the Michigan survey climbed in early March to the highest since 2022.

While the sentiment readings, and other “soft data” like surveys of businesses and homebuilders have been decidedly downbeat in recent weeks, “hard data” in government statistics suggest the economy is on solid footing. Unemployment remains low and manufacturing activity picked up in February, while another report showed inflation eased last month.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labour market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

Respondents said their expectations for future finances declined to the lowest level since July 2022. The share anticipating a recession held at a nine-month high.

The big question for economists and Federal Reserve policymakers now is if the weak sentiment trend translates into observable behavior, like a marked pullback in spending. Consumers are also contending with persistent inflation, high borrowing costs and a softer job market, which are all weighing on household finances.

Buying conditions for big-ticket items like appliances and electronics picked up, which may reflect plans to buy before tariffs kick in, according to the statement. Data on February inflation-adjusted spending on goods and services spending is due Friday.

Federal Reserve officials held their benchmark interest rate steady for a second straight meeting last week as they wait for more clarity about the impact of Trump’s policies. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates in the year ahead rose to the highest in almost a year, according to the confidence report.

Uploaded by Magessan Varatharaja