(March 25): Asia’s economy will avoid a slowdown this year even as US President Donald Trump escalates his campaign to put pressure on countries by raising tariffs, according to a report issued at China’s premier international conference.

Forecasts released by the Boao Forum for Asia on Tuesday showed growth across the continent is expected to reach 4.5% this year, slightly higher than last year’s 4.4%. South Asia is set for the fastest expansion in the region with a gain of 5.9%, researchers including those at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state think tank, said in the annual report.

“Asia’s trade and investment will come under strain but stand to benefit from a number of bright spots,” they said. “Despite increasing global economic uncertainty, Asia has remained a key growth engine for the world economy.”

The view expressed at the forum, sometimes referred to as “China’s Davos”, offers a rare upbeat note for Asia, with Trump poised to unleash a barrage of new levies as early as next week. China and India are among the economies most exposed to risks from the US president’s vow to impose reciprocal tariffs on partners.

By contrast, other economists are taking a more dim view of Asia’s growth prospects. The region’s economies are set to expand 4.2% in 2025, revised down from a prior estimate in anticipation of a hit from US trade levies, according to a January report from AMRO, or the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office.

Trump is set to roll out plans for universal, reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2 — a date he’s referred to as “liberation day”.  The deadline for a US review of Beijing’s trade compliance is April 1.

Inflationary pressure in Asia will likely worsen in 2025, driven by rising wages, higher logistical costs, supply chain restructuring and currency depreciation, Boao’s report said. It sees the overall unemployment rate for Asia at about 4.4% this year, lower than the global level of just under 5%.

“Today’s world is undergoing profound changes,” Zhang Jun, the forum’s secretary general, said at a news conference to launch the report. “Challenges and uncertainties are piling up and concerns in the international community are growing in the face of the various turmoils in the whole world.”

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