LONDON/SINGAPORE (March 24): European shares rose on Monday on upbeat German data and US stock futures and the dollar firmed at the start of a data-driven week, although the threat of US tariff hikes made investors cautious.

The pan-European STOXX 600 steadied by 0955 GMT with German and French indices both up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, after data showed Germany's manufacturing production increased for the first time in almost two years.

S&P 500 futures were up about 1% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.2%.

This week's data releases include global purchasing managers' survey, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation reading, inflation data in Australia and Japan, a budget update in Britain and major earnings in China.

While the word 'stagflation' has not explicitly been mentioned, "it is clear from central bank forecast projections (except for the Swiss National Bank) that higher inflation and weaker growth are complicating the policy outlook," Bank of America Global Research strategist, Kamal Sharma, said in a note.

But it is likely to be updates on US President Donald Trump's plans for global reciprocal tariffs from April 2 that drive markets, and after a volatile month for stocks, bonds and currencies, analysts said there is no obvious trade ahead.

"It's very difficult to really devise a structural playbook," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

"You've got to put your mind into the head of the consumer and households," he said, since it has been fears of a slowdown in the world's biggest economy that has led to weeks of selling dollars and stocks and a strong rally for Treasuries.

"Anything that feeds into this higher probability of recession, higher probability of a stagflationary environment ... or that price pressures aren't transitory is where we start to get panicky a bit."

Trump has vowed to impose a complicated barrage of tariffs next week, the details of which are not clear save that they are to be calculated to reflect the impact of foreign tariffs as well as foreign value-added taxes on imports.

The S&P 500 eked out a gain on Friday after Trump hinted at flexibility, but after a rollercoaster first two months in power — including tariff hits on China, Mexico and Canada — traders are shy of betting that Trump is ready to cut deals.

Ten-year US treasury yields have fallen 38 basis points from mid-February highs to sit at 4.28%, last up about three basis points.

Japan's Nikkei ended Asia trading down 0.2% while stocks in Hong Kong finished up 0.9% and China's blue chip index finished up 0.5%.

In emerging markets, Indonesia's fragile stock market hit its lowest level since 2021, last down 1.2% while Türkiye's lira was on a knife edge as the jailing of President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival has unsettled investors.

Hong Kong shares are up about 18% so far this year, the largest gain of any major market, but a drop of 4.4% over two sessions late last week pointed to a pause in the flow of money while traders consider their — and Trump's — next moves.

Earnings at Chinese automaker BYD, video platform Kuaishou as well as Chinese banks and several property developers will be in focus. Shares in China's largest food delivery firm Meituan fell 3% after it posted revenue more or less in line with estimates on Friday.

In the US, discount retailer Dollar Tree and up-market athletic clothier Lululemon are on the calendar.

Gold steadied shy of last week's record high, buying US$3,024 an ounce, while bitcoin rose 2.4% to US$87,161.

"Cash and safe havens remain the counterbalance to any larger shift in strategy," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY in a note to clients.

"We expect a series of diplomatic meetings to avert extreme tariffs eventually, but not by April, leaving the sequencing concerns over Trump's policy shifts continuing to move markets with ongoing economic uncertainty."

Uploaded by Magessan Varatharaja