(March 23): US inflation remains at a disquieting level for Federal Reserve officials, just as the Trump administration moves forward with tariffs that risk keeping price pressures elevated.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — probably rose 0.3% in February for a second month, based on a Bloomberg survey. The so-called core gauge is estimated to have accelerated to a 2.7% annual pace.

The government’s report on Friday is also expected to show consumer spending firmed after a tepid start to 2025, while income growth moderated after rising a month earlier by the most in a year. Consumer outlays, unadjusted for price changes, are forecast to have climbed 0.5% after the biggest weather-driven retreat in nearly four years. Personal income is seen rising 0.4%.

“Monthly core PCE inflation likely rose to 0.35% in February (vs. 0.28% prior), double the pace consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. Price increases across goods, health care, and financial services more than offset declines in other sectors. Given firm inflation and solid spending, the Fed’s decision to hold rates at the March FOMC meeting and revise up inflation forecasts will likely appear justified,” said Bloomberg Economics.

The latest inflation and spending numbers provide a snapshot of price pressures and economic activity leading up to President Donald Trump’s planned April 2 announcement on reciprocal tariffs — which Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day in America.” General uncertainty about the impact of the duties help explain why Fed officials kept interest rates unchanged last week.

After the meeting, Fed chair Jerome Powell said policymakers have scope to stand pat on rates to get a better handle on how the administration’s policies will impact the economy and inflation. Fed governor Adriana Kugler and St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem are among the US central bankers speaking in the coming week, while Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic will appear on Bloomberg TV on Monday.

Other economic data on the agenda include February durable goods orders, which may offer a sense of whether companies are becoming more cautious about their capital spending plans. Economists will also use a report on February merchandise trade to help shape estimates of first-quarter gross domestic product. The imports data, however, will probably be skewed once again by a surge in inbound gold that won’t be included in the government’s GDP estimate.

On Friday, the University of Michigan will issue its final March consumer sentiment survey, including year-ahead and long-term inflation expectations.

In Canada, investors await Prime Minister Mark Carney’s likely call for an election. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada will release a summary of deliberations that led to its seventh straight rate cut, as officials weighed a pickup in core inflation against the economic impact of Trump’s trade threats.

Also due in Canada are GDP data, including a flash estimate for February, which may reflect a surge in exports as US importers scrambled to front-run higher tariffs.

Below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

The week is looking fairly light for major economic data and central banks.

First on the docket is an early look at manufacturing activity in March, with preliminary purchasing managers index readings from Australia, Japan, and India. Factory activity has been relatively anemic in recent months, barring a few exceptions, as tariffs loom and domestic and international demand cools.

There’s also a series of inflation readings for February, starting with Singapore consumer price data on Monday set to show a slight slowdown. Australian CPI is out on Wednesday, as price increases likely held around 2.5% — above the central bank’s comfort level.

Japan producer prices for services, also reported on Wednesday, are expected to show inflation continuing to pick up in line with the government’s goal.

Wednesday is also likely to see Sri Lanka’s central bank keep rates unchanged.

As the world veers closer to April 2 and expected reciprocal tariffs from Trump, there’ll be a closer look at trade data. That comes in the form of import and export figures from Hong Kong on Tuesday, then Sri Lanka and the Philippines on Friday.

Tokyo department store sales are reported on Tuesday, as is March consumer confidence in South Korea that’s expected to show lingering pessimism amid economic and political challenges. The following day, a composite survey of manufacturers provides another look at sentiment.

Taiwan’s industrial production activity in February comes Tuesday, and will provide a gauge of demand for chips and other technology as tariffs loom. That’s followed a day later by Singapore industrial production numbers, expected to show a drop in monthly activity.

Other signals on the regional economy come in the form of February Macao hotel occupancy data on Thursday — the prior month showed a 90% rate — and Pakistan GDP figures on Wednesday that are set to show a growth pickup in the fourth quarter. Figures on February car sales in Thailand are released some time during the week.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will present her UK fiscal update to parliament on Wednesday, and probably unveil cuts to spending and welfare. Borrowing is on track to overshoot her projections in the fiscal year that ends imminently, and independent forecasts may show a need to heap on more debt.

The same day, UK inflation will be a highlight after Thursday’s Bank of England’s decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged in the face of heightened trade uncertainty. Price growth is seen slowing slightly, to 2.9% — still well above the 2% level targeted by policymakers.

Retail sales come on Friday, as well as a final reading of GDP for the fourth quarter. Also of interest will be appearances by BOE governor Andrew Bailey on Monday, followed on Thursday by Swati Dhingra, the sole official who voted for a cut.

In Germany, where a huge fiscal package to retool the country’s defenses passed its final parliamentary hurdle on Friday, the closely-watched Ifo index of business confidence will be released on Tuesday, with all gauges expected to show improvement.

In the wider eurozone, PMIs are coming on Monday, and economic confidence along with the European Central Bank’s measure of inflation expectations will arrive at the end of the week. Consumer-price readings from France and Spain are also due on Friday.

Several policymakers are scheduled to speak, including ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel in London on Thursday.

Turning to the Nordics, Sweden’s Riksbank on Wednesday releases minutes from its latest meeting, where officials kept rates on hold and reiterated an end to easing. The country’s economic tendency survey is due the same day.

Norway’s central bank faces a close decision on Thursday on whether to deliver its long-communicated first rate cut from 4.5%. A surprise surge in inflation in the past two months, together with data showing a resilient labor market and stronger economic activity, might prompt another postponement.

Increased uncertainty about whether Norway could suffer from Trump’s expanding trade war is further clouding the outlook for governor Ida Wolden Bache and colleagues. Analysts at Nordea Bank Abp have already scrapped forecasts for any easing by Norges Bank this cycle.

Several other central bank decisions are scheduled across the wider region:

In Brazil, the central bank posts minutes of its March 18-19 meeting, where policymakers delivered a third straight 100 basis-point rate hike, to 14.25%.

The post-decision statement was less hawkish than some had expected, with forward guidance confined to tipping a smaller hike at the next meeting in May. Analysts see a further 100 basis points of tightening before the fourth quarter.

On Thursday, the central bank’s quarterly monetary policy report may sound much like December’s: expect higher rates and slower growth along with persistently elevated inflation prints. The mid-month inflation report will likely show consumer prices drifting further above policymakers’ 3% target from mid-February’s 4.96% print.

Chile will report February unemployment while the central bank there posts its quarterly inflation report. Growth and inflation are above its forecasts, suggesting output is running above potential.

Banxico policymakers get fresh economic growth and consumer price data ahead of their Thursday rate decision. Inflation is back within the target range but more to the point, analysts are marking down Mexico’s 2025 and 2026 GDP forecasts, with the OECD even predicting a recession this year and next.

Analysts in the latest Citi survey unanimously expect Banxico, led by governor Victoria Rodriguez, to cut the key rate by a half-point for a second straight meeting on March 27, to 9%.

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