(March 14): Top cocoa grower Ivory Coast’s upcoming mid-crop is expected to be smaller this year following unfavourable weather, threatening to limit a recovery from a huge global shortage.

The second and smaller harvest of the season — which typically starts in April — should total about 400,000 tons, the average estimate of six traders and analysts in the country surveyed by Bloomberg show. That compares with about 440,000 tons last year, according to people familiar with government data.

The market is keeping a close eye on crop prospects after poor West African harvests caused a massive global deficit and sent prices surging to a record last year, boosting chocolate costs. While futures have eased from a peak set in December amid an outlook for a more balanced market this season, cocoa is still historically expensive and stockpiles remain strained.

Le Conseil du Cafe-Cacao, Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, said it’s too early to forecast this year’s mid-crop and declined to comment on last year’s volume.

The mid-crop has been hit by heat and extended dryness that started in November, in addition to a harsh Harmattan — the seasonal dusty winds that blow from the Sahara. It’s a reminder of how vulnerable crops are to weather and climate change in a region that’s struggling with structural issues like crop disease and low farmer pay that stifles investment in ageing plantations.

There’s also added uncertainty for the mid-crop because harvesting is likely to be delayed by roughly a month to give pods more time to mature and ripen.

Still, the tail end of the harvest could benefit from rains that usually start from next month, according to the traders and analysts surveyed. Some western areas of Ivory Coast are already experiencing showers.

The International Cocoa Organization last month said the global market should move into a 142,000-ton surplus this season as higher prices helped boost output and curb demand, though some analysts have forecast a small deficit.

Ivory Coast’s mid-crop is typically reserved for local grinders to support domestic processing of beans into products that end up in confectionery around the world. A smaller harvest could leave some Ivorian factories struggling to operate at full capacity.

Grinders said they’re concerned about lower-quality beans following the adverse weather, and some trees seen on a tour from the southern port city of Abidjan to Danane in the west had barely any pods after dryness made flowers drop.

Attention next turns to the much larger main crop, as good rains in the coming months will be crucial for that harvest starting in October.

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