This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on January 20, 2025 - January 26, 2025

The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the US on Jan 20 will be closely watched, with vice-president-elect J D Vance also taking the oath of office. Trump, a Republican, previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021. His first presidential speech then described a broken country, saying, “This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.”

Political consulting group Eurasia noted that Trump’s first day in office will focus on toughening immigration policies and trade, with an increased risk of tariffs on Canada, Mexico or — less likely — the European Union, as well as targeted actions against China.

Global attention will also be on Trump’s response to President Joe Biden’s outgoing administration cracking down on Chinese vehicle software and hardware, citing national security concerns. This regulation will effectively bar nearly all Chinese cars and trucks from the US market.

Additionally, the US is set to begin its ban on the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok on Jan 19 but Trump’s administration is seeking to extend that deadline.

The US Federal Reserve will also enter a communications blackout period from Jan 18 to 31, limiting the public speaking and interviews of Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff.

This week’s key US data includes initial jobless claims and the January S&P Global manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys.

In the stock market, 459 US companies will report quarterly earnings between Jan 21 and 24, with 39 of them being S&P 500-listed firms across sectors including airlines, technology, social media, multinational corporations, financials, consumer discretionary, pharmaceuticals and healthcare.

From Jan 20 to 24, the 55th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum will take place in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, under the theme “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age”. Several senior officials from the European Central Bank (ECB), including President Christine Lagarde, will be speaking at the event.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to announce its monetary policy decision on Jan 24.

According to UOB Global Economics and Market Research’s Jan 17 weekly outlook report, eight of the nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the BoJ to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% while one predicts the central bank will hold rates steady.

“The shift in expectations came about after recent comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino strengthened market expectations for a potential interest rate hike.

“Admittedly, we too feel a Jan BoJ hike has shifted from a remote possibility to a highly probable one. That said, we note that the BoJ decision will take place a few days after Trump comes into the White House and any significant US policy decisions could influence the BoJ decision,” it said.

In the region, South Korea will announce its 4Q2024 gross domestic product (GDP) on Jan 16.

“Our economist, Ho Woei Chen, expects South Korea’s GDP growth to have stayed muted in 4Q24 (Bloomberg: 1.6% year on year, UOB: 1.8% y-o-y) with easing private demand further weighed by the political crisis that ensued following suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law attempt on Dec 3,” UOB says.

The research house expects South Korea’s GDP growth for the full year of 2024 to be in line with the recently revised official forecast of 2.1%.

Taiwan will release its 4Q2024 GDP growth and December export orders on Jan 17.

In Malaysia, the Department of Statistics is expected to release December 2024 inflation and trade data.

UOB estimates Malaysia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to grow by 1.8% y-o-y in December, matching November’s rate. The research house forecasts 8.5% y-o-y growth in exports and 6% growth in imports for December.

Bank Negara Malaysia will announce its key interest rate on Jan 15.

The central bank is expected to maintain its overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3%, according to the Bloomberg consensus of six economists.

UOB economists Julia Goh and Jasrine Loke believe that the OPR will remain unchanged at 3% through 2025 as Bank Negara awaits clarity on domestic price policy and the impact of Trump’s foreign policy.

Across the causeway, Singapore will release its headline CPI inflation, core inflation and industrial production data for December.

In the local courts, former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak will continue to be cross-examined by the prosecution in the 1Malaysia Development Bhd-Tanore trial.

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