(Jan 15): Singapore home sales beat forecasts in 2024, due to a resurgence in demand that has renewed speculation the government may take steps to cool the market.

Developers likely sold more than 6,500 new units last year, based on preliminary calculations by Bloomberg, after figures for December were released Wednesday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

That surpasses the 6,421 transacted in 2023, exceeding forecasts from consultancies including CBRE Group Inc and Jones Lang LaSalle Inc, which had expected a drop from 2023. The full-year rebound came despite a typically quiet December, dominated by a year-end school vacation and the Christmas holiday, in which just 203 units were sold.

Analysts had downgraded their forecasts after developers opted to sit pat for most of the year, driving a significant slowdown in new sales. But a rebound during the last quarter — driven by the release of mass-market projects and a rush of demand from buyers motivated by decreasing borrowing costs — has changed the dynamic. In a sign of how lopsided the market was, more new homes were sold in the last quarter alone than the first three combined.

That has also renewed concerns among analysts about the sustainability of the rally and possible government intervention to cool resurgent prices with elections due later this year. In recent years, Singapore authorities have sought to calm the market by introducing multiple rounds of measures. This included doubling the stamp duty for most foreigners to 60%, one of the highest rates in the world.

Barclays plc, Citigroup Inc and Morgan Stanley have sounded the alarm on possible new curbs, pointing to growing speculation among buyers seeking to make a hefty profit reselling new units. Home prices have rebounded, climbing 3.9% for the year, according to preliminary estimates. Final price figures for the fourth quarter are set to be released later this month.

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