(Jan 1): Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his government would spend the next year “rebuilding” Britain, as he acknowledged the scale of the challenge he faces in turning around the UK’s stagnant economy and high cost of living.
“I know there is still so much more to do, and that for many people it’s hard to think about the future when you spend all of your time fighting to get through the week,” the prime minister said in a New Year’s message released by his office. “Until you can look forward and believe in the promise and the prosperity of Britain again, then this government will fight for you.”
That rhetoric appeared to be a nod to public opinion polls showing widespread dissatisfaction with the Labour administration after less than half a year in government. The party won a landslide in the UK’s July 4 election, ending 14 years of Conservative rule, but Starmer’s first six months in office have been overshadowed by a series of economic and political difficulties that are likely to continue into 2025.
The UK economy has contracted for two straight months, according to the latest data, while a tax-raising budget at the end of October was widely criticised by businesses as crimping jobs, investment and growth. Private-sector activity is set for a “steep” decline in the next quarter, according to a pre-Christmas warning from the Confederation of British Industry that piles pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to find more ways ways to stimulate economic growth.
Starmer used his New Year’s message to repeat a pledge to reduce immigration into the UK, though the failure of successive governments to prevent small boats carrying asylum seekers across the English Channel was put into focus once again over the holiday period. More than 1,500 people have entered the country via that route since Christmas Day, according to Home Office statistics, taking the total for the year to more than 36,000 — the second highest on record.
Irregular migration is one factor in the rise of Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK party, which a recent poll suggested was surging in support and could threaten Labour’s chances of winning another majority at the next election, due in 2029. That Sunday Times survey suggested Labour would lose nearly 200 seats if an election were held today.
An Ipsos poll released on Dec 16, meanwhile, found some 61% of Britons are dissatisfied with Starmer, and 70% are unhappy with his government. His personal rating is the weakest of any prime minister measured by Ipsos going back to the late 1970s.
While the next general election doesn’t have to be held for another four and a half years, Starmer does face a reckoning with voters in a round of local elections in May.
In some 176 council by-elections held since Starmer’s national win in July, Labour have lost a net 27 seats, while the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform UK have all made gains, according to analysis published on Wednesday by local elections expert Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer.
Moreover, the trend has accelerated, with a bigger proportion of results where Labour suffered “truly calamitous” drops in vote share of more than 30% happening since late October, Hayward said.
The peer said Labour should still expect to make gains in the May elections, because they will be held in seats last fought in May 2021, when the Conservatives benefited from a so-called “vaccine bounce” after the roll-out of protection against Covid-19. But he added that those advances won’t now be as deep as would previously have been expected.
“Despite being in government, because of where the elections will be held and the results in 2021, Labour should still expect substantial gains but not at the massive levels which previously appeared likely,” Hayward said. “Only a few months ago, the Conservatives were expecting to suffer massive losses. They are possibly now facing somewhat fewer losses.”
Defending his record in office so far, Starmer said he had already overseen a record rise in the minimum wage.
“Returns of foreign national criminals — up 20%,” the prime minister said, offering a list of his achievements. “Billions of pounds worth of new projects in clean British energy making our country more secure. And over £25 billion (US$31 billion or RM139.87 billion) invested in our National Health Service (NHS) starting to cut waiting lists in your local hospital.”
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