(Dec 21): UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s pursuit of closer ties with China has raised private questions from Donald Trump’s incoming administration, European diplomats and even some senior British officials.

It’s a courtship that risks leaving Starmer isolated among his allies. Last month, he became the first British prime minister to meet with President Xi Jinping for seven years, and next month, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is due to meet top officials in Beijing early with priorities that include deepening financial ties between Shanghai and the City of London.  

The new Labour government is trying to fix a relationship that has gone from a “golden age” in 2015 under the then Conservative prime minister, David Cameron, to outright gloom. Ties all-but froze following Beijing’s crackdown on pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a wave alleged cyberattacks and spying operations in Britain. 

Starmer is eager to tap the world’s second-largest economy to help make post-Brexit Britain greener and more productive. But he’s going against the political currents in Brussels and Washington, where British allies have increasingly come to the view that Chinese ties bring more threats than opportunities. 

Last week, those risks returned to the fore as it emerged that a Chinese business adviser to the king’s brother, Prince Andrew, was barred from the UK over security concerns. Starmer said in response that while national security was his priority, the government’s China policy would be based on “Three Cs”: Cooperate, challenge and compete.

The early signals from Downing are that it’s keen to emphasise the first “C”. Foreign Secretary David Lammy went ahead with a visit to Beijing in October, even after China launched widespread military exercises around democratically governed Taiwan. Starmer passed up a chance to condemn the sentencing of Hong Kong democracy advocates hours after his meeting with Xi. 

That has left key Western officials — in particular Trump’s team, but also European nations — questioning Starmer’s China stance, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity disclosing private discussions with UK allies.

“This government appears to be placing its China strategy firmly out of sync with Europe and the US on a variety of issues ranging from tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, forced labour-screening on goods coming from Xinjiang, to the adoption of a foreign agents register,” said Sam Goodman, a senior policy director at the China Strategic Risks Institute in London.

Reeves is seeking closer cooperation centred on financial services and clean energy during her Jan 11 visit to Beijing. City of London firms, in particular HSBC Holdings plc and Standard Chartered plc, have lobbied for better relations after Cameron’s pint-glass-clinking with Xi gave way to rounds of sanctions and countersanctions. 

The timing is awkward just nine days before Trump’s inauguration. Members of the president-elect’s team have expressed concerns to Starmer’s administration that the UK shouldn’t let China see it as a weak point in Western resolve, some of the people said. The Americans don’t see the UK going all-out to boost ties with China as consistent with its claim to be America’s No 1 ally, one said.

A hint of that divide came in October, just ahead of Trump’s election. Florida Senator Marco Rubio — later named as Trump’s pick for secretary of state — warned that Starmer’s deal to give Mauritius control of the Chagos Islands, where a key US military base is located, posed a “serious risk” and would aid Beijing. While Starmer has tapped his close ally, Peter Mandelson, as his US ambassador in a bid to deepen relations with Trump, the incoming envoy’s long advocacy for closer China ties may not endear him to the new US administration.

Some senior European Union (EU) officials have also questioned the timing of the UK’s outreach to Beijing when the commission and several EU states have pushed a tougher approach, particularly over the Asian nation’s support for Russia, some of the people said. One EU diplomat asked how the UK could seek closer economic ties just weeks after ramping up sanctions on Chinese firms accused of arming the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Some European states have also privately noted that the UK is an outlier in not following the EU and US lead on imposing tariffs on electric vehicles from China.

There’s also a risk of alienating other allies. Starmer appears to be expending more effort on defining how to deal with China than strengthening Indo-Pacific alliances with Japan and Australia, according to Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy in East Asia at King’s College London. “That defines a sense of uncertainty some allies are having,” he said.

An ally of Starmer’s rejected the claim that he risked upsetting allies, noting that Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese had overseen his own thaw in relations with Beijing this year, albeit while US President Joe Biden was also seeking to stabilise ties with China. 

The prime minister faces critics at home, too. The Home Office is said to disagree with his expected decision not to put China on the so-called enhanced tier of Britain’s foreign influence registration programme, which would have imposed tougher restrictions on business with Beijing.

Some senior UK officials are wary of Starmer’s approach, citing ongoing espionage and cybersecurity risks and escalating Chinese activity aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine. Those challenges were more significant than ever, they said.

An ally of former prime minister Rishi Sunak’s said that as the chancellor and then prime minister, he had rejected proposals from Treasury officials to agree a closer economic and financial relationship with China. By contrast, Starmer and Reeves appear to have accepted them, they said, fuelling a narrative that the prime minister allows the Treasury to drive policy.

One senior government official characterised Starmer’s China policy as a shot in the dark. They conceded it was far from certain whether the UK would see any tangible economic benefit from the thaw, but argued it was worth trying in the pursuit of much-needed growth.

“It appears that the UK government’s policy is to deepen trading relationships with the US, EU and China simultaneously,” said Simon Finkelstein, a former Treasury and Foreign Office adviser. “Unfortunately, this strategy appears to forget that Donald Trump is becoming the US president next month.” 

Based on his experiences working with the first Trump administration, Finkelstein predicted the president would “try to force an ‘us or them’ choice.” Sooner or later, Starmer will have to pick a side. 

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