This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on December 2, 2024 - December 8, 2024

This will be a relatively quiet week, perhaps, except for the scheduled testimony of Datuk Seri Najib Razak in his 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) trial, without any major events in Malaysia. In the region, however, several countries will announce their third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) as well as inflation figures.

Across the Causeway, the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November will be released on Monday while the November S&P Global Singapore PMI will be out on Wednesday and October retail sales on Thursday. Singapore will hold another round of Certificate of Entitlement (COE) auction on Wednesday while its November foreign reserves data will be announced between Dec 6 and 11.

The virtual meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (Opec+), which was originally scheduled for Dec 1, has been postponed to Thursday (Dec 5).

The only major monetary policy decision in Asia-Pacific this week is that of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday. According to a Bloomberg survey, as at Nov 29 all 10 analysts expect the RBI to keep the policy repurchase option (Repo) rate on pause at 6.5%, while seven analysts expect the cash reserve ratio to be unchanged at 4.5%.

“Our economist Jester Koh agrees that the RBI will be on hold in December as India’s headline inflation is likely to still hover in the 5% to 6% range in the months ahead. Hence, he expects RBI to commence monetary policy easing only at the February 2025 monetary policy meeting (MPC), with risks that the easing cycle could be further delayed should food inflation remain sticky,” Global Economics & Markets Research economist Alvin Liew says in a Nov 29 report.

In Asia-Pacific, several countries will announce their PMI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Australia will announce its third-quarter GDP results on Friday. Bloomberg and UOB expect the rate to hold steady at 1% — essentially unchanged from the second quarter.

Other key Australian data include the Melbourne Institute inflation for November as well as the October building approvals on Monday. October retail sales will be announced on Monday while October trade data will be out on Thursday.

China’s official PMI for November was scheduled to be released on Nov 30. The Caixin PMI manufacturing data for November will be out on Monday while November’s official foreign reserves will be announced on Saturday.

The November CPI will be announced by Indonesia on Tuesday, by South Korea on Wednesday, the Philippines and Taiwan on Thursday and Thailand on Friday. Bloomberg estimates a year-on-year dip to 1.5% from 1.71% in October for Indonesia, an increase to 1.71% from 1.3% in October for South Korea, an increase to 2.4% from 2.3% in October for the Philippines, to 1.9%-2.2% from 1.69% in October for Taiwan and an increase to 1.2% from 0.83% in October for Thailand.

South Korea will release its November trade data on Sunday (Dec 1), with Bloomberg estimating exports to grow 2.8% y-o-y from 4.6% in October, imports to record -0.9% y-o-y growth from 1.7% in October, while the trade surplus could reach US$4.9 billion from US$3.15 billion in October.

Vietnam’s November monthly data, including trade, industrial production and CPI, will be released on Friday.

Several US Federal Reserve officials will be speaking during the week of Dec 2 to 6, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period from Dec 7 to 19.

“The key person in focus will be Fed chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak in a moderated discussion at The New York Times’ DealBook Summit on Thursday. There is no G7 monetary policy decision taking place this week, but the Fed will release its latest Beige Book report on Thursday, while the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will publish the latest Economic Outlook report on Wednesday,” said Liew.

It will be a heavy week of US data and eyes will be peeled for the October construction spending data and US ISM manufacturing index for November on Monday; the JOLTS job openings for October on Tuesday; the US October factory orders, US ISM services index and ADP employment change for November on Wednesday; US October trade balance on Thursday; and US November Labor Market report on Friday.

Japan will release its third-quarter capital spending report and third-quarter company profits on Monday and October household spending on Friday.

On the local corporate front, Bursa Malaysia-listed companies that will hold their annual general meetings include Kim Teck Cheong Consolidated Bhd (KL:KTC), Destini Bhd (KL:DESTINI) and Divfex Bhd (KL:DFX) on Monday; Jentayu Sustainables Bhd (KL:JSB) and REDtone Digital Bhd (KL:REDTONE) on Tuesday; Edaran Bhd (KL:EDARAN) on Wednesday; and Gamuda Bhd (KL:GAMUDA), YTL Power International Bhd (KL:YTLPOWR), YTL Corp Bhd (KL:YTL) and Malayan Cement Bhd (KL:MCEMENT) on Thursday.

In the scheduled continuation of the 1MDB trial of Najib, the former prime minister is expected to testify in his defence. The trial will run throughout the week.

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