This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 11, 2024 - November 17, 2024

The main focus at home this week will be on the final reading of third quarter (3Q) gross domestic product (GDP), which will be released by Bank Negara Malaysia on Friday (Nov 15).

Advanced estimates last month indicated the economy likely grew 5.3% year on year in 3Q, following 5.9% growth in 2Q. UOB Global Economics & Markets Research says it expects the country’s real GDP to expand at a “robust” pace of 5.7% y-o-y in 3Q, primarily underpinned by increased manufacturing production, robust construction works and resilient service activities that will help to cushion the weakness in the agriculture and mining sectors.

“Year-ago low base effects, ongoing implementation of initiatives outlined in national master plans and government fiscal policy support are also impetus to sustaining the growth momentum,” UOB says in a Nov 8 outlook report.

There will be four new listings on Bursa Malaysia this week, kicking off with construction outfit Azam Jaya Bhd and security seals manufacturer Mega Fortris Bhd on the Main Market on Monday, followed by drinks producer Life Water Bhd (Wednesday) and Metro Healthcare Bhd (Friday) on the ACE Market. Metro Healthcare, which specialises in fertility as well as obstetrics and gynaecology services, is currently listed on the LEAP Market.

Over in the courts, the High Court on Monday (Nov 11) will decide whether to grant leave (permission) to the Malaysian Bar to challenge the Federal Territory Pardons Board’s decision to halve the prison sentence of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak from 12 years to six years, as well as reduce the RM210 million fine to RM50 million.

Meanwhile, the appointment of a new Federal Court judge and the elevation of several individuals to the Court of Appeal and High Court are expected to take place in Putrajaya on Tuesday (Nov 12).

Climate issues will be brought to the fore at the UN Climate Summit 2024, better known as COP29, which kicks off in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov 11.

In China, there will be interest in how e-commerce players such as Alibaba Group and JD.com will fare with the Nov 11 Singles’ Day, which is the world’s largest online shopping event. Shopping campaigns for the event had kicked off several weeks ago.

Key data releases from China this week include new and used home prices, industrial production, retail sales and the surveyed jobless rate — all for the month of October — on Nov 15.

Meanwhile, India markets are closed on Nov 15 in conjunction with the holiday to commemorate Guru Nanak’s birthday. The country’s October Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be released on Nov 12, and Bloomberg has estimated it at 5.9% y-o-y, compared with 5.49% in September.

Japan’s 3Q GDP and Hong Kong’s final reading of 3Q GDP are expected to be announced on Nov 15.

Indonesia will release October trade data on Nov 15.

All eyes will be on political developments in the US after Donald Trump won the presidential election in the world’s largest economy last week.

The US will celebrate Veteran’s Day on Nov 11 and thus, no government data releases are expected on that day as federal offices are closed. While US stock exchanges (the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Composite Index) will be open for normal operation hours, the US bond market will be closed. Canadian markets are closed on Nov 11 in conjunction with Remembrance Day.

Key data expected in the US this week include October CPI (Nov 13), Producer Price Index (Nov 14), advanced retail sales (Nov 15), industrial production (Nov 15) and September business inventories (Nov 15). Bloomberg estimates that the CPI will increase to 2.6% y-o-y, from 2.4% in September. Core CPI is seen at 3.3% y-o-y, the same as in September.

The UK’s preliminary 3Q GDP will be released on Nov 15. UOB estimates that the UK’s 3Q GDP grew 1.3% y-o-y in 3Q from 0.7% y-o-y in 2Q. Last week, in a widely expected move, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in the second such reduction this year.

The UK’s International Labour Organisation unemployment rate for September is expected on Nov 12. A rate of 4% was recorded in August.

Meanwhile, the eurozone’s final 3Q GDP is expected on Nov 14. UOB believes that the GDP is likely to grow 0.9% y-o-y, unchanged from preliminary estimates.

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