This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on November 4, 2024 - November 10, 2024
Investors are bracing for a busy week packed with economic data, the third-quarter earnings season and, more importantly, the results of the US presidential election on Tuesday.
Americans will go to the polls on Tuesday to vote for a new president and, at the same time, there will be elections for the US Senate (33 out of the 100 seats contested), House of Representatives (all 435 seats across each of the 50 states contested), state governorships and state legislatures.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held on Wednesday and Thursday, with a decision due on Friday, the delay of one day due to the US elections. UOB Global Economics and Markets Research and the market expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slash its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at this meeting.
“We think that September’s jumbo 50bps rate cut is a one-off and that the Fed is likely to continue to ease but at a gradual pace. The not-so-cool September core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) certainly dialled back those more aggressive expectations of Fed rate cuts but it probably was not hot enough to grind the Fed to a pause. Post-FOMC decision, we only have Fed Governor Bowman speaking on banking topics on Friday,” UOB said in its weekly outlook report last Friday.
The week will be intensified by the release of US corporate earnings reports, with over 1,700 US firms, including 100 S&P 500 companies, announcing their third-quarter earnings.
At home, Bank Negara Malaysia is also due to make a monetary policy decision on Wednesday. According to a Bloomberg survey, all four analysts expect the central bank to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 3%.
On Thursday, Bank Negara will release its international reserves as at Oct 30. The international reserves amounted to US$119.6 billion (RM523.75 billion) as at Oct 15, slightly down from US$119.7 billion as at Sept 30.
According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, the services Producer Price Index for the third quarter of 2024 will be released on Wednesday, followed by the performance of wholesale and retail trade for September and the volume index of wholesale and retail trade for the third quarter of 2024 on Thursday. The Labour Force Statistics for September 2024 and Index of Industrial Production for September 2024 will be published on Friday.
Across the Causeway, the official Purchasing Managers’ Index for October is due on Saturday (Nov 2); the S&P Global Singapore PMI and the September retail sales on Tuesday; the mid-week Certificate of Entitlement (COE) auction on Wednesday and the official reserves data for October on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, G7 monetary policy decisions that will take place mid-week include the Bank of England (BoE), Norway’s Norges Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank Bank on Thursday.
China will release its data on October trade and foreign reserves on Thursday as well as October PPI and inflation on Saturday. “The October PMIs suggest that deflationary pressure may have eased slightly,” said Liew.
Meanwhile, Vietnam will release its October CPI, IP, retail sales and trade data on Wednesday.
On the corporate front, annual general meetings by Bursa Malaysia-listed companies include those of Harn Len Corp Bhd (KL:HARNLEN) and IOI Corp Bhd (KL:IOICORP) on Tuesday, Hong Leong Industries Bhd (KL:HLIND) on Wednesday, IOI Properties Group Bhd (KL:IOIPG) and KUB Malaysia Bhd (KL:KUB) on Thursday. An extraordinary general meeting by Harvest Miracle Capital Bhd (KL:HM) will be on Tuesday, while that of IOI Properties Group Bhd and AME Elite Consortium Bhd (KL:AME) will be on Thursday.
On Thursday, the courts will see Putrajaya’s appeal hearing against the Kuala Lumpur High Court’s order to transfer ownership of 263.272 acres (106.54ha) of land in Mukim Batu, Kuala Lumpur, to Semantan Estate Sdn Bhd (SESB) within three months.
The 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) suit against former top executives at 1MDB Arul Kanda Kandasamy and Tan Sri Irwan Serigar at the High Court will continue throughout the week.
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