This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on October 28, 2024 - November 3, 2024
The holiday-shortened week ahead will be packed with economic data, corporate earnings and the final leg before the US presidential election on Nov 5. Japan is scheduled to hold a snap general election on Oct 27, nine days before the US chooses a new president.
All eyes will also be on the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. UOB Global Economics and Market Research in a report last Friday expects the BoJ is unlikely to raise its interest rate.
“While our call was for a rate hike in 4Q2024 (likely in October), that call is now unlikely to materialise as BoJ governor Ueda told reporters on Oct 24 that the Japanese central bank has ‘enough time’ to consider its next policy steps, potentially signalling the BoJ will not hike on Oct 31.”
According to the Bloomberg poll as of Oct 25, almost all of the 56 economists surveyed expect the BoJ to stay on pause (except UOB which is projecting a 25-basis-point hike to 0.5%).
Japan will also announce its unemployment rate for September, Consumer Confidence Index for October, September retail sales and industrial production
numbers this week.
At home, the debate of the Supply Bill 2025, involving an allocation of RM421 billion, will resume in the Dewan Rakyat. However, markets will be closed on Thursday as the country celebrates the Deepavali holiday.
On the corporate front, two companies — Sorento Capital Bhd and OB Holdings Bhd — will be making their trading debuts on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.
Corporate earnings season will start on Nov 1 (Friday) for the period from July to September.
The S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October is set to be released on Thursday, together with Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan. PMI data will help guide on the latest global production, trade and industrial price trends.
“Recent PMI survey data, including October’s flash numbers, have clearly highlighted how economic growth is being subdued by heightened geopolitical uncertainty. October saw business activity contract for a second successive month in the eurozone and also slip into decline in Japan. The UK, meanwhile, saw growth weaken sharply as uncertainty ahead of the imminent government spending review in the autumn budget exacerbated broader geopolitical risk worries. One area showing notable resilience is the US services economy where, despite a further drop in manufacturing production in October, the sector continues to drive robust economic growth,” S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a report last Friday.
Across the Causeway, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will release its semi-annual MAS Macroeconomic Review October 2024 on Monday and the third-quarter 2024 Labour Market Advance Release on Tuesday. Singapore’s overall seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is expected to remain low at 1.9% in September, according to UOB.
Other key data for the week include Singapore’s deposits and money supply data for September on Wednesday while the official PMI for October will be released on Nov 2.
Elsewhere, the US will kick-start its corporate earnings season with more than 1,400 firms reporting 3Q earnings, of which 161 are S&P 500 companies. Focus will be on the technology giants known as the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla) and oil majors.
In the US, focus will be on its 3Q gross domestic product (GDP) advanced estimate on Thursday. A Bloomberg poll showed the US to record 3% quarter-on-quarter growth, UOB at 2.1% from 3% in 2Q.
All eyes will also be on the US October labour market report that will include nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage growth, which will give new clues on the upcoming US Federal Reserve’s meeting on the interest rate.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period begins from Oct 26 to Nov 8.
In Europe, key economic data are the 3Q2024 GDP and preliminary October Consumer Price Index (CPI) for France, Spain, Germany and Italy on Wednesday and eurozone 3Q GDP, preliminary CPI and September unemployment on Thursday.
Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, key data includes Hong Kong and Taiwan’s 3Q GDP, China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys for October, South Korea’s September industrial production and trade data, as well as Indonesia’s October CPI.
In the courts, the Kuala Lumpur High Court will deliver the verdict on whether former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has a case to answer for or be acquitted with regards to four counts of abuse of power and 21 charges of money laundering of RM2.27 billion of 1Malaysia Development Bhd funds on Wednesday.
The defamation suit of former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who has been hospitalised at the National Heart Institute, against deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will resume hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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