(Oct 25): China’s copper demand will peak around the end of this decade, according to a state-backed government researcher, offering a potential counterpoint to bullish views on the metal’s prospects.

While Beijing Antaike Information Development Co forecasts substantial growth in demand from the renewables sector, the focus of copper optimists, it also sees an impact from a slowing Chinese economy and from buyers switching over to aluminium.

China’s demand growth in the five years up to 2030 will average 1.1%, down from 3.9% in the five years to 2025, Antaike analyst Yang Changhua said at the group’s conference in Wuhan. The copper intensity of renewables investment is falling as industries bid to reduce usage or find alternative materials, he said.

For the past half-decade, there have been a series of eye-watering forecasts for copper, largely resting on the idea that the world’s mines will struggle to keep up with a long demand boom.

Prices this year reached a record above US$11,000 (RM47,821) a tonne amid emerging signs of supply tightness, but have since drifted lower as China’s economy struggles and manufacturing in the rest of the world remains soft. The metal was little changed on Friday near US$9,500 on the London Metal Exchange, heading for a fourth weekly decline.

Key risks to the “peak by 2030” forecast include the future strength of China’s manufacturing exports, or the relocation of factories overseas, Yang said. He didn’t give an outlook for global copper demand.

China’s combined consumption of copper from electric vehicles plus the solar and wind industries will rise to 3.1 million tonnes by 2030, Yang said. That will be 26% of the nation’s total demand, up from 15% in 2023.

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