Attention will be on the monetary policy decisions of central banks across several regions this week, as well as inflation data in several important economies.

Across the Causeway, of interest is the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and whether its release date will coincide with the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s issuance of the advance third-quarter (3Q) gross domestic product (GDP) data.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economist Alvin Liew said in a report last Friday that he is certain the October MPS will be released on Oct 14 (Monday) as MAS did not make the announcement last Friday.

“In our MAS preview we reiterate our projection for a ‘slight’ reduction (by 50bps [basis points]) to the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate slope in the upcoming October MPS. Data-wise, we have September foreign reserves data on Monday (Oct 7) and another round of COE (certificate of entitlement) auction mid-week (Oct 9),” said Liew.

The expectation is that Singapore’s 3Q2024 GDP grew by 3.1% year on year (y-o-y), supported by stronger than expected manufacturing activity in the quarter. “With sticky core inflation, a tight labour market, and economic activity still healthy, the MAS is likely to keep its policy stance unchanged this October,” economists at Deutsche Bank Research predicted in an Oct 4 report.

Three other major Asia-Pacific central banks — The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and The Bank of Korea (BoK) — will announce their monetary policy decisions on Oct 9 and Oct 11 (BoK).

A Bloomberg poll as at Oct 4 showed that 11 of the 13 analysts polled expect RBNZ’s overnight cash rate to be cut by 50bps to 4.75% for October while the remaining two expect a smaller 25bps cut.

All 10 analysts unanimously expect no change to the RBI repo rate at 6.5% and the cash reserve ratio at 4.5% for October.

Bloomberg polling data for BoK revealed that six of the seven analysts (including UOB) expect the policy rate to be cut by 25bps to 3.25% for October while a lone analyst expects the BoK to remain on hold.

Over at The Reserve Bank of Australia, the minutes for its September policy meeting will be released on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Vietnam will likely to be the first economy in the world to release its 3Q2024 GDP when it posts its data on Sunday (Oct 6), with Bloomberg projecting 6% y-o-y growth against 6.9% in 2Q. Vietnam will also announce its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data then, with Bloomberg predicting 2.7% y-o-y growth in September compared with 3.45% in August.

Other economies releasing their CPI data include Thailand on Monday, Taiwan on Tuesday, and China on Sunday (Oct 13).

China will return from its week-long National Day holidays on Tuesday, coinciding with the release of a tally of domestic tourism data for the period by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. The numbers are expected to indicate the extent of the boost to consumer confidence arising from the China central bank’s stimulus package on Sept 24, which cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its new benchmark, by 0.2 percentage points to 1.5%, as well as other interest rates.

Other noteworthy regional data include August industrial production from Malaysia and India on Friday; China’s September money supply, aggregate financing and renminbi new loans data between Oct 9 and 15.

Key data from Japan will be its August preliminary leading index on Monday as well as August labour cash earnings nominal wages and August household spending the next day.

“Newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Oct 4 instructed his cabinet to propose a new economic package that will aim to reduce the impact of high prices and support growth, including cash handouts for low-income households and regional economies. According to top spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi, the Japanese government will submit an additional budget to parliament after the Oct 27 general election. Such additional budgets have become near annual affairs despite the extra burden on Japan’s already significant fiscal debt,” said Liew.

Over in the US, people will be watching for the data on August consumer credit on Monday, August trade balance on Tuesday, September CPI and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday and Producer Price Index final demand for September on Friday.

On the local corporate front, Bursa Malaysia-listed companies holding their annual general meetings include Bermaz Auto Bhd (KL:BAUTO) on Tuesday, Analabs Resources Bhd (KL:ANALABS) on Thursday and Marine & General Bhd (KL:M&G) on Friday. Pekat Group Bhd (KL:PEKAT) will hold its extraordinary general meeting on Thursday.

At the courts, the death sentence of Chief Inspector Azilah Hadri, who was convicted of murdering of Altantuya Shaariibuu, will be up for review at the Federal Court on Thursday. Also to be reviewed on Wednesday is the death sentence imposed on four men convicted of the murder of businesswoman Datuk Sosilawati Lawiya.

On Wednesday Datuk Seri Najib Razak will testify in his own defence in the RM4 billion civil suit against him for misusing the RM4 billion Retirement Fund Incorporated (KWAP) loan given to SRC International Sdn Bhd.

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