This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on September 30, 2024 - October 6, 2024

There are three existential developments in the world that, of course, Asean also has to face. They are a crumbling global order, climate change and rapid technological advances.

There are some Asean initiatives with respect to the second two challenges, even if not comprehensive enough. On the first, however, it looks like Asean would just be a spectator taking what comes next from that emaciated world order. This has to change. Asean must play a more active role to call out what is wrong in the global order and to position itself to have a greater role in its reformation as well as in regional security.

It is well known that Asean does not do foreign policy, what more grand strategy. It avoids the big issues and concentrates on the economy, upon which the region has prospered. Next month, the Asean summit in Vientiane, Laos, will end with a note of satisfaction with how the region has progressed and make general reference only to global challenges. It will refer to master plans for the next 10 to 20 years, but will come up with no initiative to manage urgent issues in the global order.

This cannot continue because there are immediate matters that will envelop Asean and undermine precious economic prosperity.

Whatever differences there may be of nuance among Asean member states on Gaza, surely there must be common recognition that the slaughter of well over 40,000 people, for one year now, sitting ducks, overwhelmingly women and children, has to stop. And now with escalation of conflict bringing expanded Israeli attacks on Lebanon, more innocent lives will be lost.

Surely the violation of international law is evident. South Africa has had the courage to bring Israel to book on Gaza despite enormous pressure, especially from the US at Israeli behest, to discontinue its legal action. It has stood fast. Asean should at least laud such courage in protection of the people of Gaza under international law.

The flow of decisions since January by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), not just on Gaza but also on Israeli occupation of conquered territory and Palestinian right to self-determination, should not be treated like so much flotsam if there is to be law and order at all in international society.

There are fundamental tenets in international law sourced in human morality in a civilised order or society of states. There are the laws of war in that order that shelter it from nasty, brutish and short Hobbesian state. There are laws on human rights which do not accept that human beings should be treated like animals. Genocide and acts of bestiality absolutely undermine the very fabric of human civilisation in the law of nations.

So, what can Asean do about it? Well, it can at least say that acts of genocide and gross violations of human rights have no place in the global order. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it best: “What is happening in Gaza is a disgrace to civilisation.” While the West has for so long remained largely silent, can Asean not at least ask: Where is the civilised system of values and laws proclaimed by the West in the global order?

We have reached a tipping point. It is not just about the decline of the West or the rise of Asia or of China. It is not just about a new world order even. It is about the evisceration of values that compose law and underpin order. Their disembowelment is not just a disgrace to civilisation. It moves humanity to a lower order, a less civilised world.

Can and should Asean limit itself to just generalised statements in the midst of all this? Should it not want to speak out as a group in the interest of human civilisation? Should it not want to participate actively in global forums to voice its concern?

While Asean states may act differently in response to Western inconsistency and double standards, such as by seeking to join alternative forums like BRICS to thumb the nose at hypocrisy in the Western-dominant world, there are bodies such as the G20, which was set up after the Western financial crisis of 2008 to recognise the hugely changing world not represented in the G7, then the poster boy of global economic management, brought down by the crisis.

Asean should become a full member of the G20, not just be an observer. The African Union is a member and, even more importantly, the European Union has always been a member, despite the fact that many of its member states are also represented in the G20, such as Germany, France and Italy. So, the fact that Indonesia is already a member of the G20 and Singapore gets to attend as Convener of the Global Governance Group (3G) it cleverly set up to represent 30 smaller and medium-sized countries should not be an issue.

Becoming a G20 member is only a first step. Asean should be active in it, voicing concern on developments that are destroying global order, be they economic, political or legal. For this, Asean should be well prepared, which it often is not. For this, Asean should set up in the secretariat a strategic issues unit to assist Asean leaders to address existential matters in the global order.

Not just for G20 discussions, but also for the summits Asean organises, including the Asean Plus summits, the East Asia Summit and the Asean Regional Forum. There is little point in organising these summits year in and year out if the Asean position on developments of global import is not prepared and expressed clearly. There is no point in going on and on about Asean centrality if it is not used to effectively emphasise issues of grave concern.

In an increasingly valueless and lawless world, many outstanding issues and disputes can spin out of control. In its own backyard, there are the South China Sea claims involving four of its member states and China, which Asean has not taken in hand with any degree of urgency. This is dangerous. US-China rivalry could take matters totally out of Asean control and it will then witness, to match the world’s, the crumbling of regional order — and its economic prosperity.

What is at risk in the South China Sea is huge, some already identified, others not yet imagined. The well over US$3 trillion of global trade that passes through the South China Sea; the exploitation of fish, oil and gas resources, and their conservation; the unthought of and undiscovered phytoplankton blooms on the seabed, which are probably the best natural resources of carbon dioxide removal in the world, for the carbon credit valuation that can be appropriated.

The transmission cables of new green power being planned on the bed of the South China Sea, such as wind energy from Vietnam to Singapore, hydro power from Sara­wak to Singapore and Peninsular Malaysia, which may run through disputed stretches — all are part of the Asean energy network, the lifeblood of the Asean economy.

Remember, the first thing taken out in any conflict, as Israel did when it attacked Gaza in response to the Oct 7 Hamas atrocity, was the power grid.

The overlapping claims in the South China Sea are an existential risk to Asean. It cannot sit on its hands and do nothing because, once a conflict breaks out, it will be too late. Already, the risks involved raise project costs and insurance premiums. They are a disincentive to investment.

So, Asean has to act to protect the region. It should call for a conference with China to revive and revitalise the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and to conclude the Code of Conduct, before actual conflict overwhelms the region, the early signs of which can be seen in altercations between China and the Philippines, with the latter being supported by the US and other Western countries.

Involvement in what may seem to be huge geopolitical matters is not an option. It is essential to protect real interests. For Asean, so enamoured of economic success, the point should be appreciated of the interconnectedness of what is crumbling in the world today with the economic progress it has always concentrated on. Asean has to be seized of the strategic issues to be master of its own destiny.

It may be said that individual Asean states prefer to take their own steps and have their own strategies on matters of their national interest. This is not being denied. What is necessary is that where there is common interest, such as a just world order, no genocide and violation of humanitarian laws in war, a rules-based system that is actually adhered to, likely conflict in its own region, Asean can and should move together. Otherwise, there is no point in having the regional grouping and Asean will fall apart as its member states seek separate affiliations in a world of disorder and conflict.

Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid is chairman of CARI Asean Research and Advocacy

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