(Sept 24): China’s central bank unveiled a broad package of monetary stimulus measures to revive the world’s second-largest economy, underscoring mounting alarm within President Xi Jinping’s government over slowing growth and depressed investor confidence.
People’s Bank of China (PBOC) governor Pan Gongsheng cut a key short-term interest rate and announced plans to reduce the amount of money banks must hold in reserve to the lowest level since at least 2018, appearing at a rare briefing alongside two of the country’s other top financial regulators in Beijing. That marked the first time reductions to both measures were revealed on the same day since at least 2015.
Those moves were followed by a slew of other announcements that fuelled gains in China’s beleaguered equity market. The central bank chief also unveiled a package to shore up the nation’s troubled property sector, including lowering borrowing costs on as much as US$5.3 trillion (RM22.1 trillion) in mortgages and easing rules for second-home purchases.
For the nation’s stocks, Pan said the central bank will provide at least 800 billion yuan (US$113 billion or RM473.6 billion) of liquidity support, adding that officials are studying setting up a market stabilisation fund.
While several of the measures had been anticipated by investors, the highly publicised rollout showed authorities are taking seriously warnings that China risks missing its growth target of around 5% this year. The policy barrage likely puts that goal back within reach, but doubts remain whether it is enough to break China’s longer-term deflationary pressure and entrenched real estate crisis.
Authorities have yet to unveil more forceful measures to boost demand among consumers, which some analysts view as a key missing ingredient for the economy.
“It’s hard to say what silver bullet can help resolve everything,” said Ken Wong, an Asian equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments Hong Kong Ltd. “While it’s good to have monetary easing measures that are accommodative, more needs to be done in order to help solidify fourth-quarter growth.”
China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index of shares rose as much as 4%, close to erasing losses for the year, though the gauge is still down more than 40% from its recent peak in 2021. Commodities markets gained, and the yuan was little changed against the dollar. China’s 10-year bond yields rose three basis points to 2.06%, erasing an earlier decline to a record low.
Policymakers in Beijing have been trying to revive the economy without resorting to the bazooka stimulus China used in previous downturns, but such piecemeal efforts have been ineffective. Growth recently slowed to its worst pace in five quarters — a deterioration that’s testing the leadership’s tolerance for missing its high-profile annual target for the second time in three years.
“The purpose of today’s (Tuesday) briefing is to inject confidence into the market, judging by the fact that the authorities revealed measures in one go,” said Larry Hu, the head of China economics at Macquarie Group Ltd. “The stimulus push will still need coordination from other policies — particularly follow-up policies from the fiscal side.”
The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) bigger-than-expected half-percentage point slash has given central banks across Asia more room to move. But making money cheaper won’t lift the economy if Chinese consumers don’t want to spend because layoffs are looming amid sliding corporate profits and property prices are still falling. New home prices clocked their biggest decline last month from the previous period since 2014.
Pan’s decisive display of ramped-up monetary policy now sets the stage for the Finance Ministry to unveil its own bid to defend the growth target. A plunge in revenue from land sales has held back fiscal spending this year, crippling indebted local governments’ ability to invest in growth-boosting projects.
“It is too far from being a bazooka,” ANZ chief Greater China economist Raymond Yeung said of the package. “We are not sure how much the mortgage rate cut will induce a property recovery.”
The central bank governor unveiled his big policy shift at his first high-profile press conference since March, appearing alongside securities regulator Wu Qing, and Li Yunze, the head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration. The trio used their collective public debut to roll out steps to salvage investor sentiment and stem a selloff in the stock market.
That included new financial tools to expand liquidity for equities, which would help listed companies and major shareholders buy back shares and raise holdings.
The PBOC chief has displayed a more transparent approach to policy, with Pan on Tuesday effectively mapping out rate cuts and policy moves for the rest of the year. He used a similar briefing in January to announce a reserve requirement ratio cut two weeks before it was effective, as authorities tried to halt a stock-market rout.
“Monetary policy easing came in bolder than expected,” said Becky Liu, the head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered plc. “We see room for bolder easing ahead in the coming quarters, following the Fed’s [expected] outsized rate cuts.”
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