This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on September 9, 2024 - September 15, 2024
Local investors will be keeping a keen eye on 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd’s (KL:99SMART) listing on the Main Market on Sept 9, being the largest initial public offering (IPO) on Bursa Malaysia in seven years.
With its listing price set at RM1.65 per share, the mini market player would have a market capitalisation of RM13.86 billion upon listing, based on an enlarged issued share capital of 8.4 billion shares.
Its IPO aims to raise RM2.36 billion, including RM1.7 billion from the sale of 1.028 billion shares by CEO Lee Thiam Wah and his wife Ng Lee Tieng.
Regionally, it will be a busy week for China, as a slew of economic data is set to be released before the nation heads into the mid-Autumn festival holidays happening on Sept 15 to 17.
On Monday, the world’s second-largest economy will be releasing its inflation data and Producer Price Index (PPI) for August. Economists estimate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August to see a growth of 0.7% year on year from 0.5% growth in July. If the official numbers come in line with economists’ expectations at 0.7% y-o-y, it would still only be the fastest since February’s 0.7% increase.
China has been plagued with weak domestic demand, while exports have been crimped by rising trade tension with the US. Tariffs on Chinese goods add to the recovery woes.
Last July, Chinese policymakers announced stimulus for a trade-in policy for consumer goods to help boost consumption. However, some quarters opine that the response has not been as expected. Some believe that the Chinese government should focus on fighting deflationary pressure, as fears that an entrenched deflationary situation would create a bigger problem for the country.
Meanwhile, economists expect China’s August PPI to decline 1.4% y-o-y, a steeper drop than the 0.8% decline in July.
China’s August external trade data will be announced on Sept 10. Bloomberg estimates put exports at 6.7% growth y-o-y from 7% in July, while imports are expected to increase 15% to 24.2% y-o-y from 16.2% in July.
Safe to say that the CPI, PPI as well as external trade data will be closely watched for a gauge on the need for further economic policy support.
Meanwhile, India will also be releasing its August CPI data during the week, on Sept 12, where the expectation is that it will grow 3.7% y-o-y from 3.54% in July.
In the US, CPI and PPI data for August will be announced ahead of the upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept 17 and 18.
Bloomberg estimates the headline inflation to grow at 2.6% y-o-y from 2.9% in July. August PPI final demand has been forecast to grow at 1.7% y-o-y from 2.2% in July.
“Softening price pressures have been outlined by the latest S&P Global Flash US PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), which showed average prices charged for goods and services rising at the slowest rate since January 2020. The latest development is supportive of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting and we will seek to confirm the trend with the CPI update,” says S&P Global Market Intelligence in a report dated Sept 6.
In US politics, Sept 10 will see Democrat presidential nominee vice-president Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s debate, which will be held in Philadelphia — marking their first televised public debate.
According to an article by Reuters, it said that most opinion polls show Harris to be slightly ahead nationally and in the majority of battleground states, but Trump remains well within striking distance to win the Nov 5 election.
Over in Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be announcing its monetary policy decision on Sept 12. The latest Bloomberg poll shows that all five analysts unanimously expect a 25-basis-point (bps) cut to the ECB deposit facility rate to 3.5% from 3.75%, says UOB Global Economics and Markets Research in a Sept 6 report.
It added that the survey consensus is also expecting the main refinancing rate to be lowered by 60bps to 3.65%, while the ECB marginal lending facility is projected to be lowered by 60bps to 3.9%.
“At this juncture, we too expect a 25bps September rate cut, followed by another 25bps cut in December. Recent economic data has been downbeat as the region struggles to show a convincing recovery after more than a year of near-zero growth figures,” says UOB.
Locally, economic data is scant. Only July Industrial Production Index (IPI) data will be released. In June, the growth came in at 5%. Economists are looking at an expansion of between 5.3% and 7% y-o-y for July.
In the courts, the 1MDB-Tanore trial submission is set to continue this week where former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak faces four counts of abuse of power for using his position to receive gratifications worth US$620 million. He also faces 21 money laundering charges.
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