KUALA LUMPUR (July 26): Global recoverable oil reserves held largely steady at around 1,500 billion barrels, down some 52 billion barrels from 2023, according to Rystad Energy.
In a statement on Thursday, the Oslo-based research firm said that of this year-on-year decrease, 30 billion barrels were due to one year of production, and 22 billion barrels were mostly due to downward adjustments of contingent resources in discoveries.
Rystad Energy said the largest downward revisions were seen in Saudi Arabia, where development priorities shifted from offshore capacity expansion to onshore infill drilling.
It said the only country with any significant increase was Argentina, with a gain of four billion barrels, thanks to the derisking of shale projects in the Vaca Muerta formation.
Rystad Energy said the total recoverable oil resources of 1,500 billion barrels give an upper limit of how much oil can be produced over the next 100 years or more.
It said this upper limit is only realistic and economical if oil demand is not impacted by the energy transition, meaning oil prices would rise far above US$100 (RM466.45) per barrel. In this theoretical “high case”, total oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 million barrels per day (bpd), then decline steeply to 85 million bpd in 2050.
Rystad Energy’s estimates of total recoverable oil resources have fallen by 700 billion barrels since 2019 due to reduced exploration activities.
It said exploration had fallen as investors feared new discoveries would remain stranded due to the ongoing electrification of vehicles, and an expected slump in both oil demand and crude prices.
Rystad Energy head of analysis Per Magnus Nysveen said the world’s remaining oil reserves are insufficient to support oil demand if there is no transition to electric vehicles.
“Attempts to limit the supply of oil will have hardly any effect on limiting global warming. Instead, the only feasible way of keeping global temperatures rising less than 2°C is to ensure fast electrification of road transportation,” said Nysveen.