This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 15, 2024 - July 21, 2024

THE spate of recent flight mishaps involving different airlines — from engine cover and door panel falling off, tyre blowing off mid-flight to planes skidding off runways or encountering severe turbulence — has raised safety concerns among air travellers. However, aviation experts maintain that air safety is stronger than ever.

Christopher McGregor, flight safety officer at Franco-Italian turboprop maker ATR, says overall aviation safety performance continues to surpass previous years, including those before Covid-19, citing the International Air Transport Association (IATA) 2023 annual safety report.

“From a manufacturing perspective, the supply chain disruptions have an economic impact, but our high safety and quality standards remain unchanged. As an aircraft manufacturer, our priority is to build and maintain trust, and support our customers within a safe and sustainable aviation system,” he says in an email response to questions from The Edge.

“We are continuously developing our customer support capabilities to maximise aircraft availability, minimise operational disruptions and enhance safety margins,” adds McGregor, who was one of the panellists at the recent Asia and Pacific Turboprop Safety Conference (APTSC) organised by the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA).

AAPA director-general Subhas Menon dismisses the idea that aviation has become less safe. “Far from it. It only indicates an increase in reporting by the media, especially with the rise of social media. In fact, IATA in its latest safety report showed that airlines had their safest year on record in 2023 even though the return to operations was quite rapid (following Covid-19). Safety is never compromised. There is no fear that safety is at risk. Air transport is the safest mode of transport,” he tells The Edge.

According to the report by IATA — which represents more than 80% of global air traffic, or some 330 of the world’s airlines, from at least 120 countries — jet operations saw no hull losses or fatalities last year. However, there was a single fatal accident involving a turboprop aircraft — a loss-of-control accident in Nepal in January 2023 that resulted in 72 fatalities. This compares with five fatal accidents in 2022, and an improvement on the five-year average (2019-2023), which also stood at five.

Subhas also points out that safety concerns raised on US plane maker Boeing do not reflect a shortfall in the industry’s safety: “Boeing by its own admission needs to reorganise and restructure [its operations] to address some of these issues, and it is doing all these while it is under the spotlight.

“The fact of the matter is that in the industry, there are very few suppliers because regulators and airlines are very stringent in the application of safety. Not everyone can start producing aircraft and engines. They are pre-qualified, always audited, and regulators are always making sure that new safety regulations are introduced to keep everyone on their toes. That is why the industry has such a good safety record,” he notes.

It was reported that Boeing’s safety woes, which date back to 2019, resurfaced in January this year, when an emergency door plug blew off an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9. According to news reports, some passengers are now deliberately avoiding flying on Boeing planes in the wake of its safety issues.

“This underscores the complexity of our industry. We view the industry as an interconnected system and must not assume this issue is unique to one stakeholder. We now have the opportunity to learn from these experiences and strengthen our own safety management systems,” says McGregor.

Still, the aviation experts say it is unlikely that the supply chain disruptions will return to normal any time soon.

“We can observe small improvements within the supply chain, but it will take time to normalise. ATR is taking all available actions to protect the production and in-service support activities,” says McGregor.

Subhas says it is difficult to predict when the supply chain problems will end because many of the production and maintenance delays in the face of supply issues are due to government actions.

“Many governments are imposing trade sanctions and tariffs because of their economic rivalry with other countries. For instance, some of the aircraft parts may have been produced in Russia, Ukraine or China and if there are trade sanctions [against firms in these countries], these components don’t get to the plane manufacturers that are in Europe or the US in time,” he says, adding that airspace and sea lane closures by governments due to conflicts are also delaying the delivery of aircraft parts.

“Thus, how long the disruptions will last is really in the hands of the governments to ensure that the supply chains are working as they used to.”

Reports of unruly passengers on flights are also on the rise. “What we found, at least among Asia-Pacific airlines, is that quite a bit of these are alcohol-induced. It is a bit tricky because a lot of the time this kind of incident happens in no-man’s land. Where do you prosecute these offenders? They are in-between countries quite often,” says Subhas.

He notes that airlines face challenges in getting the authorities to take action against these difficult passengers.

“The authorities would say the case didn’t happen in their territory, so they are not responsible. However, the only way to deter these offenders is to take action against them because their behaviour on flights can threaten the safety of passengers, flight crews and flight attendants.”

McGregor notes that safety risks between turboprops and jets are the same, regardless of aircraft type.

“However, operational issues can vary, such as higher flight cycles and limited navigation infrastructure. We (ATR) aim for the same, if not higher, safety performance. This is evidenced by the -600 series safety statistics, which are trending positively, comparable to those of the Western-built jet fleet,” he says.

“In the industry, we typically consider rates per million flight cycles. Given variations in reporting, ATR cannot comment on the entire commercial turboprop fleet. However, for the -600 fleet (ATR 42-600, ATR 72-600, and ATR 72-600F), the accident rate is trending positively, similar to the Western-built jet fleet (about 0.1 for the Western-built jet fleet versus approximately 0.14 for the ATR -600 fleet, in terms of fatal accident rate per million flight cycles over a 10-year average),” he adds.

McGregor says society demands high levels of connectivity within a safe and sustainable aviation system.

“Continuous training and innovation, both short and long term, are essential to sustain the safe foundations we have built for the future across all areas of our industry. We need skilled professionals in engineering, flight operations, flight crew, cabin crew, maintenance and air traffic management to meet this demand.

“We are witnessing an increase in aircraft utilisation and passenger numbers across all regions. To sustain this growth safely, it is imperative to invest in the next generation of aviation professionals,” he adds.

McGregor says at ATR, the speak-up policy is a crucial component of its safety management system. “We cannot speak for other manufacturers, but we must remain humble and vigilant, providing maximum support to our colleagues. This ensures we identify not only potential hazards but also safety opportunities. As leaders in our market, our goal is to continuously learn and ensure action and follow-up.”

Subhas concurs. “There is no difference in safety risks between turboprops and jets. The safety parameters and the approach to safety, which is basically risk management, are prevalent throughout the industry.

“It is just that turboprop operations have some challenges that may differ from jets. For example, a lot of times turboprops operate in difficult terrain and extreme weather conditions. Because of that, they have different challenges, so you need to find different solutions to address those challenges. The accident rate in the industry is more or less the same.”

He notes that because the percentage of turboprop operations is lower than jets, a lot of attention goes to the latter. “Many of these turboprop aircraft operate in remote and sparsely populated areas. Because of that, they don’t get the attention they deserve. They are doing a great service to the community and also contribute to the economic and social development of these communities,” Subhas says, adding that this is reflected in the low turnout of regulators from the region at the inaugural APTSC.

“We wanted more regulators from across the region to attend the conference as well, because the turboprop sector tends to draw less attention than jets.”

In the first five months of 2024, air passenger traffic recorded by Asian airlines had reached 89.4% of 2019 levels, according to AAPA.

“Air travel demand is growing around 45% to 50% per month while air cargo demand is growing at 16% per month. It is not an overestimation to say that quantitatively, we should achieve 2019 levels by the end of the year because advance sales for the next few months into 2025 are showing a strong uptick. Demand is continuing, not only for leisure travel but also business travel. We think that the load factors have already recovered to 2019 levels. Optimisation is there. The airlines are already profitable,” says Subhas.

Despite strong demand, some airlines like Australia’s Bonza Aviation Pty Ltd and MYAirline Sdn Bhd have collapsed.

“It is a very tough industry. Costs are already high and rising because of inflation. With interest rates high, [aircraft] lease rates are also rising. Typically for a start-up airline, they may go for lease options, and then they find that the cost is higher than they were before. If they don’t have the financial strength, they may not be able to stay afloat,” Subhas explains.     

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