This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 15, 2024 - July 21, 2024

As the world’s economic order unravels in tandem with the gradual disintegration of the international rules-based order, we are entering the phase of interregnum — a shift from an order defined by American primacy to one that is yet undefined. A glimpse of what may come was explored at the recent 37th Asia-Pacific Roundtable, one of the region’s top security conferences.

In the words of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, “the geostrategic horizon ahead is overcast with ominous signs of foreboding, foreshadowing the critical risks, hazards and potential catastrophes in our path that we ignore only at our peril”. He emphasised that navigating these treacherous geopolitical waters, Malaysia will continue to uphold its own principles when dealing with major powers in the face of multiple interlocking crises.

In Asia-Pacific, rivalry among the majors has necessitated middle and smaller powers to reassess and adjust their national security interests to address threats, whether perceived or real. This process has revealed that the Asia-Pacific shares more security interests and strategies than previously thought. While that may lend some degree of mutual reassurance, the reality bites hard. That is because the commonality of security interests and strategies brings cold comfort in the face of ongoing strategic competition, economic rivalry and differing visions for the preferred regional order.

The trepidation felt by middle and smaller powers in Asia-Pacific is further accentuated by attempts to bring security-related discussions into trade and economic platforms that have traditionally avoided such controversial topics, for example, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec).

Closer to home, the strategic geography of Southeast Asian nations between the sea links of the Indian and Pacific Oceans means that the major powers have a lingering presence in the region, bringing their rivalries with them and piling on the pressure for the other powers, littoral or otherwise, to pick sides.

China’s re-emergence as a significant player and its attempts to redefine the regional architecture, contrasted with the US’ containment-driven approach, have escalated both powers towards greater confrontation, particularly in the South China Sea.

With the prospects for consensus, cooperation and coordination via multilateral governance mechanisms getting dimmer by the day — thanks largely to institutional inertia and the lack of willingness to find common grounds — small and middle countries can neither let the grass grow under their feet nor afford to be “at the space in between” of the superpower rivalries for too long.

In this regard, Asean and its inclusive regional strategy might be just what the doctor ordered to balance the interests of the outside powers. Asean’s firm foundation of centrality, unity and non-alignment, together with its enhanced collective economic weightage, confers on this regional bloc a position of significance. Asean is also proof that carefully crafted cooperation can benefit its members that are extremely diverse in size, geography, culture, income level and resource endowment.

Malaysia is preparing for its Asean chair in 2025 as we move forward with the Asean Community Vision 2045. It is imperative that Asean punches above its weight and exceeds expectations in promoting trust through diplomacy and sustained dialogues. Asean needs to be free from interstate conflict and able to maintain its balance at the intersection of great power interests in the region. This, in turn, will ensure that Asean remains in the central role in the evolving regional architecture.

Asean plays a crucial role in the global economy. The region’s combined GDP makes it one of the largest economies in the world, fostering significant trade and investment opportunities. The economic integration within Asean enhances the competitiveness of its member states, allowing them to attract more foreign direct investment and benefit from economies of scale. Moreover, its strategic location at the crossroads of global trade routes further amplifies its importance as a hub for commerce and industry.

Given Asean’s prominence in the regional political economy, Malaysia aims to rejuvenate convening and norm-building mechanisms, namely, the East Asian Summit and Asean Regional Forum, by focusing on more contemporary issues. This is essential to clinching more tangible and impactful policy outcomes and revitalising these processes as an effective entity in the overall Asean ecosystem.

Asean will remain unpretentious in its endeavour to get on the front foot and welcome productive yet meaningful relations with our strategic and comprehensive partners as well as friends in the Global South. Yet we should remain committed to maintaining and deepening our relations with the Global North and Asean’s long-standing dialogue partners, the US as well as the European Union. At the same time, Asean should also look forward to enhancing relations with the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States, Gulf Cooperation Council and Mercosur, the South American trade bloc.

Yet difficult issues confront Asean, with the crisis in Myanmar and the South China Sea dispute being among the most intractable, bearing longstanding ramifications for the region and beyond.

Malaysia will be under tremendous pressure to move the needle forward on the crisis in Myanmar. No matter how daunting, it will be essential for Malaysia to work with Asean member states and dialogue partners that have influence with the various stakeholders. Anwar has clearly stated his commitment to addressing the issue, as doing nothing is not an option. Yet we must remain cognisant of the various changes taking place in Myanmar, including discussions by numerous stakeholders on its future as a federation, or if the fighting continues indefinitely, the possibility of Balkanisation.

American writer and civil rights activist James Baldwin opines that “people are trapped in history and history is trapped in them”. Too sweeping perhaps and poet T S Eliot should provide some relief: “History may be servitude, History may be freedom.” Either way, we forget history at our own peril.

It is in times of momentous geopolitical convulsions that we need to cast off our pessimism in favour of the possible and initiate discourse. With the crises and conjunctures happening right now, whether it is the genocide of Palestinians in the Middle East, war between Ukraine and Russia and, in the region, the conflict in Myanmar and rising South China Sea tensions, it is certain that multiple configurations of alliances underscored by the mushrooming of mini-lateral alignments will be unable to serve the cause of peace. There is a need to return to a rules-based approach and values-based leadership, instilled in every type of bilateral or multilateral relationship.

It is more important than ever for all countries to “cling to the law” more firmly or risk more chaotic collapse if the ruptures we are witnessing are not sealed. Whether or not the battle between the major powers will lead to a zero-sum game, we collectively cannot afford to weather another turbulence in the realm of international order. Averting such a debacle warrants a return towards respecting and observing the rule of law and upholding the values of integrity and accountability.

Indeed, the onus is on the major powers to aspire to be responsible participants in the international system and avoid being the “spoilers” of global peace. In our region, it is vital for Asean, through its mechanisms, to lead the major powers in mitigating the worst aspects of their geopolitical rivalry. Malaysia will use its capacity to shape these new contours as we remain steadfast to our non-aligned, open and peaceful foreign policy, as we have done over the last 67 years of independence.

Datuk Prof Dr Mohd Faiz Abdullah is chairman of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia

Save by subscribing to us for your print and/or digital copy.

P/S: The Edge is also available on Apple's App Store and Android's Google Play.