This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 8, 2024 - July 14, 2024
What can we learn about coping with climate change from the crash of the cargo ship Dali into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, the US? Dali lost both engine power and its generator at the same time, leaving it adrift and unable to correct its course. The bridge was fully up to code when constructed in 1972, but the size of cargo ships has increased more than tenfold since then.
Dali had an experienced pilot who recognised the impending disaster. With just three minutes to act, he alerted authorities to close the bridge and took emergency measures to slow the ship, saving many lives. However, he was unable to prevent six deaths, the collapse of the bridge and the resulting closure of the nearby Baltimore port. Insurers now face claims of up to US$3 billion (RM14.13 billion).
The crash shines a spotlight on inherited physical and institutional infrastructure designed for different times and circumstances that leave us vulnerable as the world changes.
Today, experts and leaders are sounding warnings and attempting emergency action on climate change, global conflicts, emerging diseases and more. Yet governments, societies and economies are weighed down by inertia and seemingly ageing systems that are unable to avert disaster and limited in their ability to mitigate consequences in a poly-crisis world where failures in seemingly disparate systems — such as climate resilience and retirement savings — can coincide to create catastrophes faster than we can act.
Those disparate systems — climate and an ageing demographic — are in play now in Malaysia. Between February and March, the Malaysian Meteorological Department issued about 700 heatwave alerts, with the Malaysian Agriculture Research and Development Institute estimating that the rising heat will reduce this year’s rice yield to 62%.
The composition of Malaysia’s population aged 65+ years will nearly double from 7.4% in 2023 to 14.5% by 2040. Meanwhile, economic turmoil and the lack of jobs indicate that less than 40% of formal workers between the ages of 51 and 55 in Malaysia are on track to achieve basic savings of RM240,000 (about US$50,000) via the Employees Provident Fund (EPF). That booming ageing demographic will collide with rising global warming.
These two trends will have many areas of confluence. Climate change will demand major government investments in climate adaptation and economic restructuring even as an ageing society results in a declining tax base and a corresponding increase in demand for government services and social protection. As these trends intersect, it raises the question of how this will all impact Malaysia’s development.
The systems that contributed to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge represent a sobering snapshot of the colliding web of global development challenges we face.
This year, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) launched its Trends Report, examining how 32 global trends intersect across 13 themes, including declining trust in public institutions, green transition, health in a changing climate and increasing migration due to environmental and economic shocks induced by climate effects.
The analysis in the Trends Report goes beyond extrapolating from past data to thinking critically about future implications. Because the world is fluid and dynamic, merely projecting the past and present into the future is misleading. But by identifying uncertainties and signals to watch for, we can better understand the underlying drivers and systems that generate these trends and better anticipate and prepare for a range of potential futures.
Extreme weather events will raise the cost of food and other amenities, placing financial pressure on retirees with limited savings and few options for work. And the transition towards a green and climate-resilient economy will both create and displace jobs, which will disproportionately impact older workers who lack new skill sets.
These and other confluences of climate and demographic transition mean that failures in both systems could have multiplier effects that spiral out of control, leaving people and governments rudderless and at the mercy of climate and economic currents.
As the government begins to prepare its Thirteenth Malaysia Plan (13MP), paying attention to trends, understanding their drivers and anticipating the range of implications can help build more agile institutions and policies that can blunt the socio-economic risks from climate change.
The 13MP will take Malaysia from 2026 through 2030, which is also the deadline for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It is time to accelerate towards meeting those goals and look even further: to set Malaysia on a course of peace, prosperity and sustainability for all its peoples in a changing climate future.
Niloy Banerjee is resident representative of UNDP Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Darussalam. David Tan is head of experimentation of the UNDP Malaysia Accelerator Lab.
Save by subscribing to us for your print and/or digital copy.
P/S: The Edge is also available on Apple's App Store and Android's Google Play.