Sunday 23 Jun 2024
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(May 31): Japan spent a record ¥9.8 trillion (US$62.2 billion or RM299.2 billion) in the past month to prop up the yen after it fell to a 34-year low against the dollar, surpassing the amount it used in 2022 to defend the currency.

The finance ministry disclosed figures Friday for the period between April 26 and May 29. The amount exceeded earlier estimates of ¥9.4 trillion based on a comparison of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) accounts and money broker forecasts. It also surpassed the ¥9.2 trillion spent on all interventions in 2022.

More details of how it carried out the interventions will likely emerge when the government releases its foreign reserves breakdown next week and daily operations data including April and May in the summer.

Japan’s previous monthly intervention record of ¥9.1 trillion was set in very different circumstances when authorities were trying to weaken the yen in autumn 2011. The data for each reporting month typically include the last two working days of the previous month.

The record spending on intervention shows the commitment of Japan’s government to push back against speculators betting against the yen. The huge amount also underscores the scale of action required to have even a short-lived impact on the market.

The monthly data doesn’t indicate how many times Japan intervened, but the two sharp moves a month ago suggest the authorities entered the market twice. That would mean Japan has already spent more on two interventions in 2024 than it did on three interventions in 2022, a measure of the gradually diminishing power of its salvos to defend the currency.

“The amount feels a touch on the large side, but it’s largely in the expected range,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “It didn’t top ¥10 trillion so it doesn’t feel too big and the dollar-yen pair isn’t actually reacting much.”

The yen was down about 0.3% at 157.25 versus the dollar at 7.20pm in Tokyo time, little changed from where it was before the data release.

The yen is expected to remain under pressure given the yawning gap between interest rates in Japan and the US. While the BOJ has finally joined the Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy, Japan’s short-term rate is still just 0.1% compared with the Fed’s 5.5%.

Until there are clearer signs of when US rates will start coming down or of the BOJ pushing more aggressively to raise borrowing costs or cut back its bond purchases, there is little prospect of the tide turning.

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