This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on May 6, 2024 - May 12, 2024

The global food price crisis in 2022 and 2023 was exacerbated by the sheer unavailability of some food items, principally grains, as climate change, the Russian attack on Ukraine and, generally, an agriculture community just starting to plant again after the Covid-19 lockdowns.

The threat was very real. Not only did countries face sharply higher food prices, but also the spectre of not having enough food even if they tried importing it. So it was with Malaysia, and the breaking point came when rice, the population’s staple food, was not only rising in price but also started to be hard to obtain. For a country that was only two-thirds self-sufficient in rice supply, it was a real crisis. Thankfully, that crisis never hit the rakyat as the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and all its arms moved decisively to ensure plentiful supply. Congratulations and thanks must be conveyed to the minister and his staff.

The near crisis raised some very disturbing questions. First, could it have been predicted? Second, what pre-emptive measures could have eliminated such a crisis? Third, what is the strategic posture of the country in ensuring its people have plentiful food? One of the things I noticed when travelling to richer countries is how cheap it is to eat and buy groceries there. Friends who have taken up residence there are aghast at how much they have to pay for groceries here. I have heard of a restaurateur in a rich, neighbouring country who cannot open a branch in Malaysia because the cost of groceries here is too high.

To address this, the solution must be to put the best brains in the country to work in an independent think tank. Why independent? Celebrated intellectual thinker Noam Chomsky put it best when he said, “It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies.”

Lies? Chomsky was most probably referring to the time-honoured act of rear-covering, where no lie is too big to save oneself.

In Malaysia, we have the Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development Institute, or Mardi as it is popularly known. It appears that Mardi does everything, from strategic conceptualisation to actual science and agricultural research that brings forth new strains and seeds, for example.

The recommendation for a new think tank by no means belittles Mardi’s fine achievements, but there is something to be said for a decision-maker to have as many opinions as possible. Plus, tightly focused think tanks often deliver much sharper opinions than those whose resources may be stretched too thin or are not deep enough. Competition, after all, brings out the best in people. Collaboration is, of course, an open door for the sake of the rakyat.

In the past crisis-that-hovered-but-never-fell-on-the-rakyat, it became clear that there were several weaknesses that had not been eliminated. That they were strategic in nature ought to have been highlighted in discussions and debates long before those strategic shortcomings became weaknesses that could have hurt the rakyat.

One is the lack of self-sufficiency in food production, especially of staple foods. The belief then was that, in order to maximise the country’s productive capacity, resources would be diverted from agriculture to manufacturing and services. That which we did not have enough of, we could buy from overseas. Hence, much cultivable land was left barren and there was a distinct migration of young members of the labour force from the rural, agricultural areas to the manufacturing areas. Even the agricultural university, Universiti Pertanian Malaysia, changed its name to Universiti Putra Malaysia. De-emphasis would be the term to reflect this.

The real problem with that line of thought is that when a global shortage happens, where will Malaysia find food for its people, and at what price? That nightmare scenario did happen recently. 

Hence, strategic thinking is a real need. Some additional areas for strategic thinking would be crop-mix on a national level. It would be too much to believe we can close all the gaps of insufficient domestic production. Resource constraints is a very real thing, and not just something economists speak about. Yet, this mix of optimal crop production is something that must be addressed. Let not one country’s ban on the export of onions, for example, cause a sharp rise in the price of Malaysia’s favourite roti bawang (prata with onions).

There is also a need to continually train farmers, not just in optimising their crop yields, but also how to grow alternative crops between seasons, and manage farm finances, including how to use futures prices to plan future crops (something American farmers actively do). This maximising of farmland use is the doctrine of agriculture in countries like the US.

Such a think tank can also put together forecasts of crops, and prices into the future, tying in information available from varied sources such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and geological services and meteorological services globally.

Further, with mechanisation now full on in Malaysia’s agricultural sector, there is a need to familiarise farmers with the best machines to help them in their labour, and to use their feedback to create machines that are custom-built for the country’s crops, for instance, for plucking oil palm fresh fruit bunches in a speedy, economical manner.

Land management is another area that such a think tank could help the state governments with — identifying arable lands, working out infrastructure needs and planning crop mixes. Then there is the key issue of getting it to market: how, how fast and in what form? Should the raw food be processed further before being brought to market? Canned fish or fresh fish, for example? How does one create and site such industries? Is industrial clustering based on crops possible? 

Labour needs for agriculture can also be considered, not just the national total, but also the trade-offs happening with agricultural machinery coming into the picture. In other words, current and future needs must be identified and updated as time goes by.

Finally, can a mercantile exchange where important foodstuff is available for trade on a spot and a forward basis be created? This would certainly be a hallmark of Malaysia’s agriculture sector. Imagine, durian futures being traded and snapped up internationally!

In short, there are a million issues that such a specialised agriculture think tank can work on. Ideas and policy proposals generated can be submitted to the proper level of government, federal or state, for implementation. It should not attempt to do everything all at once, of course, but to play to its strengths and prioritise the issues that need to be dealt with. Battles need to be fought as and when they come but strategic movement towards winning the war must be maintained.

With such a think tank in existence, contributions to the betterment of food supply for the people can be increased, not just in terms of quantum, but also in resilience, quality, diversity and, if properly executed, the lowering of prices thereof. 

Huzaime Hamid is chairman and CEO of Ingenium Advisors, Malaysia’s financial macroeconomics advisory

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