This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 29, 2024 - May 5, 2024

Candidates contesting the upcoming Kuala Kubu Bharu by-election, a semi-urban seat located in the Hulu Selangor district, have started executing their campaign strategies over the weekend. The by-election is being held following the demise of its incumbent, Lee Kee Hiong from DAP, on March 21 due to cancer.

Pakatan Harapan announced that it is fielding DAP’s Pang Sock Tao for the by-election scheduled on May 11, while Perikatan Nasional has named Hulu Selangor Bersatu acting division chief Khairul Azhari Saut as its candidate.

Meanwhile, it will be a short work week as most economies around the world, including Malaysia and Singapore, will be closed on May 1 in conjunction with Labour Day.

On the economic front, all eyes will invariably be on the US Federal Reserve’s decision in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from April 30 to May 1.

“There is near universal agreement that the Fed will stay on pause again in this meeting. The expectation is for the Fed to announce changes to the pace of its quantitative tightening programme in the May 1 FOMC meeting, likely to slow the pace of the monthly reduction of US Treasuries to US$30 billion (from US$60 billion currently) and mortgage-backed securities to US$20 billion (from US$35 billion currently). While FOMC chair Jerome Powell is not expected to move on the policy rate, markets will be hoping for any insights on the Fed’s potential timeline for rate cuts in 2024 (if any),” UOB Global Economics and Markets Research said in its weekly report last Friday.

So far, nothing has been scheduled for Powell yet after his FOMC press conference.

Other central bank monetary policy decisions scheduled are those from the central bank of Pakistan (SBP) on April 29 and the Norges Bank on May 2.

Bloomberg estimates are that SBP and the Norwegian bank’s overnight policy rate will likely remain unchanged at 22% and 4.5% respectively.

Closer to home, Singapore will report the first quarter of 2024 (1Q2024) Labour Market Advance Release on Tuesday, for which Bloomberg estimates that unemployment will likely be unchanged at 2% (since 3Q2023), while the Monetary Authority of Singapore will release the money supply and bank loans data for March on the same day.

The focus for the first few days of May will be on the April official Singapore Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), to be released by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) on Thursday, and the March retail sales on Friday.

Asia-Pacific will release a slew of key data, including Taiwan’s and Hong Kong’s 1Q2024 gross domestic product (GDP) data on April 30 and March 2 respectively. Based on Bloomberg estimates, Taiwan is expected to record year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 5.65% while Hong Kong’s will be 0.5%.

Other 1Q2024 GDP data due include Europe’s 1Q2024 GDP prints on April 30.

In China, people will be watching for its official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys for April and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which will both be released on Tuesday.

April manufacturing PMI for Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia will be released on Thursday.

Vietnam will be the first major Asian economy to report its April trade data with Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Production Index (IPI) for April on Monday, followed by South Korea’s trade data on Wednesday, as well as its April CPI on May 2. Indonesia’s CPI will be released on the same day.

Over in the US, market attention will stay on its corporate earnings season with more than 1,600 US firms reporting from April 29 to May 3, with 167 in the S&P 500.

“The focus will be on some of the ‘Magnificent Seven’, consumer discretionary, carmakers, chipmakers, pharmaceuticals and MNCs,” UOB noted.

It will be a packed US data docket at the start of May, including the April Conference Board consumer confidence on April 30; ISM manufacturing for April, March construction spending and ADP employment change for April on May 1; March factory orders on May 2; April Labour Market Report by BLS on May 3; and initial jobless claims on May 4.

On the local corporate front, Bursa Malaysia-listed companies set to hold their annual general meeting include CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Petronas Dagangan Bhd and NETX Holdings Bhd on April 29 (followed by its extraordinary general meeting on the same day); while that of Westports Holdings Bhd, MISC Bhd, Nestlé (Malaysia) Bhd and Bintulu Port Holdings Bhd will be on April 30, the same day Boustead Heavy Industries Corp Bhd will have its EGM.

Over at the courts, the 1Malaysia Development Bhd-Tanore trial will resume this week.

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