This article first appeared in Forum, The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 8, 2024 - April 14, 2024

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken got some stick when he said at the Munich Security Conference in February that if you are not at the table in the international system, you are on the menu.

Actually this is not anything new. It is the iron law of world politics, even if it may give discomfort to less powerful international actors.

This is why it is so important that when those less powerful states get together, they should use their combined weight in international relations to protect or promote their interests.

Last month, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim stated in a public lecture at the Australian National University that, when Malaysia takes the chair of Asean next year, it would seek to breathe new life into Asean-led forums, like the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) and the Asean Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus, to achieve “something of consequence”.

Developments within the region, and what is happening outside it, with many lessons that can be learnt from the horror in Gaza, make this intention necessary and urgent — even before Malaysia assumes the chair.

The tension and incidents in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China have to be addressed by Asean if they are not to get out of control.

Asean has not acted in any urgent way to contain, let alone resolve, the various disputes some member states have with China, which has the outlandish claim to almost the entire sea. It has been 22 years since the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea was made by Asean and China, with negotiations on a code of conduct taking forever.

Asean should take the lead to hold a conference with China to renew that declaration, instead of always just expressing the hope that the code of conduct will be completed soon, despite the fact it has been stuck, mainly over whether or not it should be legally binding.

Asean has this tendency to concentrate primarily on the economy, where it is doing well, in the wish that other more difficult things will take care of themselves. The danger is — and it is a grave one — the South China Sea will blow up in its face.

Malaysia should initiate the process, in partnership particularly with Indonesia, with whose leaders Anwar has long and deep relations, to propose the holding of this conference as soon as possible. Malaysia has good relations with China, while not being in its pocket. It has good relations with major Asean member states. It has its own territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, which it has been managing gently despite provocation, and so can show both actual interest in the matter and how it has bent over backwards in managing it in a non-antagonistic way.

China has been difficult. From the time it was a rising power in 2002, it has now risen. It must now show all its statements of good intentions and being a different kind of major power are not empty rhetoric.

These statements also mean, specific to the South China Sea, that Beijing will not act as if the whole of Southeast Asia is its backwater, like the US Monroe Doctrine in South and Latin America.

By calling for a conference of renewal and rededication of the 2002 declaration, Asean would not be shifting any goalposts. The main intention would be to arrest deterioration of the situation at sea between China and one of its member states, the Philippines, following which, all the good intentions of the 2002 declaration should be adhered to, including a legally binding code of conduct.

Asean will also be putting all its faith in China by having the conference with it, and not entertaining any other interested parties, even as some kind of amicus curiae.

Asean will also not be taking other routes such as reference to the arbitral decision in 2016 that China’s extensive claim to the South China Sea had no basis in international law.

Less still would Asean be putting pressure on China by working through the UN General Assembly and seeking, for instance, the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the claims to the South China Sea, as has been done by 52 states, Malaysia and Indonesia included, with respect to the legal consequences of Israeli actions in Occupied Palestinian Territory.

Neither is Asean trying to put China in the position where Beijing might have to ignore invocations by the ICJ, as Israel has done in Gaza and the Middle East, as Tel Aviv murders and starves Palestinians in Gaza, even as it occupies Palestinian lands since 1967 in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions.

No, Asean wants, evident from its restraint, to keep the South China Sea a regional matter with China alone. To reciprocate, China should show, as it so often states, that that is China’s true desire too by agreeing to a rededication to the 2002 declaration.

Asean leaders have been more than restrained in their statements on the South China Sea over the years. In the ARF and ADMM Plus, convened by Asean, the regional grouping has been the voice of moderation, ensuring China is not put on the mat.

These “Articles of Faith” in China show a commitment to keep the South China Sea disputes at the regional level, as Asean’s preferred choice. China must in turn reciprocate and show good faith by agreeing to a rededication to the 2002 declaration.

Of course, individual Asean states have the right in particular situations, as the Philippines is doing just now, to engage support from any power where it feels threatened and bullied. It is precisely to avoid this kind of situation that the 2002 declaration renewal should be proposed. It would calm things down. It would revisit peaceful conduct. It would encourage cooperation for development.

Like Asean as a whole, its business people do not like dealing with geopolitics. I know from my many years at the Asean Business Advisory Council. I know from my present position as president of the Asean Business Club and chairman of CARI Asean Research and Advocacy.

Like Asean governments, they hope these thorny problems will go away. But they will not. And the South China Sea situation is becoming highly dangerous. If China and Asean do not get together at the regional level, who else will? Whoever else does, the situation will get more complicated and volatile.

Asean business people should also understand more deeply the consequences of conflict. It is an oft repeated fact that almost 60% of international maritime trade worth more than US$3 trillion (RM14.3 trillion) goes through the South China Sea.

Yes, it would be calamitous for trade. The green shoots of what could become a burning inferno can be seen in the Red Sea. In the South China Sea, it could become even worse, as in the Red Sea where there is overwhelming military might arraigned against the lone Houthis. This uneven balance will not be the case in Southeast Asia.

These risks may not be evident now, but once there is an outbreak of conflict, and it spreads, the impact on the regional economy will be deep and damaging.

At present, as the Asean power grid is developed, for instance, the cost of the laying of transmission cables on the South China Sea seabed, for green energy, say from Vietnam to Singapore, or from Sarawak to Peninsular Malaysia, will be higher than otherwise would be the case, given tensions and uncertainties. Insurance premiums, at both the construction and operating stage, will take into account South China Sea disputes risks.

When Israel attacked Gaza, the first thing it did before the slaughter was to cut the energy supply. While it is not likely there will be genocidal and anti-humanitarian acts in the event of any military clashes in Southeast Asia, war is war and stuff happens. Governments and businesses should note that an outbreak of conflict in Southeast Asia would be an existential threat.

So, an initiative on containing the situation in the South China Sea is urgent, even before Malaysia takes the Asean chair next year. Anwar, because of his fiercely independent foreign policy, is well placed to lead the Asean charge to calm the waters by seeking a renewal of the Declaration of Conduct of 2002.

He is respected by China and other Asean leaders although, of course, there will have to be deep consultation with other important Asean member states before the regional initiative is launched. The diplomatic homework is critical. The stakes are high for China and Asean.

It is good to prepare for 2025, and the prime minister is absolutely right to stress the need for Asean to be at the table, to be active and driven in the forums it leads. There are other forums too, like the G20, which Asean should be deeply involved in to protect its geoeconomic interests. Indeed, there are many matters to be identified with implementation strategies against the practiced Asean art of inertia.

However, there is this urgent South China Sea matter that cannot wait. It cannot wait for regular Asean meetings and summits. It has to be a singular and focused effort independent of set piece scheduled events, or of holding the chair.

Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid is chairman of CARI Asean Research and Advocacy

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