This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on April 1, 2024 - April 7, 2024
This week will be relatively quiet on the corporate and economic fronts. But parliament is set for an important debate as the upper house scrutinises the supplementary budget proposal for 2023.
The Supplementary Supply (2023) Bill 2024 was tabled in the Dewan Rakyat on March 14 to pave the way for the government’s request for RM23.48 billion from the consolidated fund to accommodate additional expenditure in 2023. The additional expenditure will involve 10 services, with the largest allocation going to Treasury General Services, amounting to RM14.49 billion, followed by Contribution to Statutory Fund, RM4.2 billion, and the Ministry of Education, RM1.97 billion.
Last year, the federal government tabled a RM60.17 billion supplementary budget for the year 2022.
The upper house will also be discussing the approved 10 amendments to the Police Act 1967 by the Dewan Rakyat, which include establishing the role of honorary commissioner-in-chief of the Royal Malaysian Police to be assumed by the King of Malaysia.
On Thursday, the Election Commission will hold a special meeting to set the dates for the Kuala Kubu Baharu state by-election in Selangor. The seat fell vacant following the death of its assemblywoman Lee Kee Hiong, 58, on March 21 due to cancer. Lee had held the seat for three terms since 2013.
On Monday, the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March will be released for Malaysia, as well as for Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan.
Across the Causeway, Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry will issue preliminary first-quarter 2024 gross domestic product data.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to confirm the release date for the next Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) this week. “As the MAS typically announces the MPS release date seven days in advance and the MPS is scheduled to be released no later than April 12, we therefore expect the confirmation of the April MPS date in the week of April 1-5 and the MPS will most likely be held on April 12,” UOB Global Economics and Markets Research says in a report.
Other key economic data to be released this week include the preliminary 1Q2024 URA private home price index (Monday), the official PMI for March (Tuesday), the S&P Global Singapore PMI (Wednesday), and February retail sales (Friday).
Elsewhere, China will be releasing its official March manufacturing PMI data, which Bloomberg estimated at 50.3 from 49.1 in February. The Republic will also be announcing its non-manufacturing PMI, March Caixin manufacturing PMI and March foreign reserves data.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to make a monetary policy decision on Friday. According to a Bloomberg survey, all four economists polled expect the RBI to keep its policy repo rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility steady at 6.50% and its cash reserve ratio unchanged at 4.50% at the meeting.
“With headline inflation likely to remain above RBI’s 4% target from January to June 2024 and may momentarily fall below target in July to August 2024 on base effects, we expect RBI to keep peak policy rates unchanged for some time to anchor the disinflation process, with a 25-basis-point rate cut in October to December 2024 plausible,” says UOB.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release its March policy meeting minutes on Tuesday.
For inflation-related data that is closely watched as it affects monetary policy decisions, Indonesia (Monday), South Korea (Tuesday), Thailand and the Philippines (Friday) will be releasing their respective Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the month of March.
In the US, the financial result season announcement will ensue, with S&P 500-listed firms and regional US banks reporting the week after April 12.
This week will also see substantial US economic data releases with the focus on February Personal Consumption Expenditure deflator, ISM manufacturing survey for March, February construction spending, US February factory orders, trade data for Feb 4, initial jobless claims for the week ending March, labour market report and unemployment rate.
Key European data out this week include the preliminary March CPI from the eurozone (Wednesday) and core CPI, while the European Central Bank will release the Account of March Rate Decision (Thursday).
At the local courts on Monday, impeachment proceedings will continue in the ongoing Penang undersea tunnel project corruption trial of former Penang chief minister Lim Guan Eng.
The 1Malaysia Development Bhd-Tanore (1MDB-Tanore) criminal trial before Judge Datuk Collin Lawrence Sequerah continues over Monday to Thursday. Datuk Seri Najib Razak faces four counts of abuse of power for using his position as then prime minister, finance minister and chairman of 1MDB’s board of advisers to receive gratifications worth RM2.27 billion. He also faces 21 money laundering charges.
Also on Thursday is a final hearing for former Umno Supreme Council member Datuk Lokman Noor Adam who failed in his representation bid to set aside his conviction for intimidating a 1MDB witness, for which he was sentenced to a month’s jail.
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