This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on March 11, 2024 - March 17, 2024
The local economic calendar turns light this week, with only Malaysia’s industrial production figures for January due on Tuesday. The country’s industrial production index (IPI) slipped 0.1% year on year (y-o-y) in December 2023 – after recording positive growth for two consecutive months – weighed down by the manufacturing sector.
The IPI rose 0.6% y-o-y in November 2023 after a 2.4% y-o-y increase in the month before.
A highlight of the week will be the release of Singapore’s 4Q2023 final labour market report on Thursday, where the December unemployment rate is estimated to be unchanged at 2%, says UOB Global Economics and Markets Research.
Elsewhere in Asia, China is set to announce its February consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data on March 9. In a report last Friday, UOB expects China’s CPI for February to increase 0.3% y-o-y after falling 0.8% y-o-y in January. February PPI, which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, is estimated to edge down 2.5% y-o-y, the same as January.
China is also set to release its money supply, aggregate financing and new CNY loans for February between March 9 and 15 and February new home prices on Friday.
India’s February CPI figures are due on Tuesday, which UOB expects to increase 5.05% y-o-y, compared with 5.1% y-o-y in January. India’s February trade data will be released the following day. UOB expects India’s trade deficit to worsen to US$18.75 billion (RM87.86 billion) from US$17.5 billion in January, while its wholesale price index-based inflation for February is due on Thursday.
Indonesia is also set to unveil its trade data on Friday, and UOB expects exports to slow by 5.2% y-o-y from an 8.2% y-o-y growth in January, while imports are expected to rise 11.49% y-o-y from 0.28% in January. Indonesia’s trade surplus in February is likely to fall to US$1.9 billion from the previous month’s figure of US$2.015 billion, according to UOB.
Indonesian markets will close on March 11 and 12 for the Hindu Saka New Year holidays.
Over in the developed economies, the key economic data of the week will be the US’ CPI data for February on Tuesday, which will be closely watched to help shape monetary policy and growth expectations. S&P Global Market Intelligence is also set to release key findings from its latest business outlook surveys for major developed economies, and the US Investment Manager Index on Tuesday.
According to S&P Global, while some stickiness may be anticipated according to consensus expectations, further easing of inflationary pressures should not be ruled out in the coming months, given the signals from purchasing managers’ index (PMI) prices data, which could be supportive of eventual rate cuts. Having said that, the market caution observed ahead of the prior jobs report may well be seen again ahead of the next US CPI update.
The UK is set to release its monthly output and employment data this week. In Japan, the key data releases will be on its 4Q2023 gross domestic product final print on Monday and its February PPI figures and January tertiary industry index the following day.
In the local courts, all eyes will be on the Court of Appeal’s verdict on Thursday on the appeal by the six men sentenced to death after they were convicted of killing Deputy Public Prosecutor (DPP) Datuk Anthony Kevin Morais eight years ago. The men are former pathologist Col Dr R Kunaseegaran, money lender S Ravi Chandaran and unemployed individuals R Dinishwaran, A K Thinesh Kumar, M Vishwanath and S Nimalan.
On Monday, the hearing of SRC International Sdn Bhd’s US$1.18 billion civil suit against Datuk Seri Najib Razak continues. The suit, in relation to an alleged breach of trust and breach of statutory duty involving the RM4 billion Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) loan to SRC International when Najib was prime minister, is being heard before the Commercial High Court.
On Thursday, lead defence counsel Tan Sri Muhammad Shafee Abdullah is expected to resume his cross-examination of former 1Malaysia Development Bhd general counsel Jasmine Loo, who had denied that she was a “key component” in the entire 1MDB scam.
In this trial, Najib faces four counts of abuse of power for using his position as prime minister, finance minister and chairman of 1MDB’s board of advisors to receive gratifications worth RM2.27 billion. He also faces 21 money-laundering charges.
On the local corporate front, national oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd will announce its 4Q and full year 2023 financial results on Friday.
Save by subscribing to us for your print and/or digital copy.
P/S: The Edge is also available on Apple's App Store and Android's Google Play.