This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on January 8, 2024 - January 14, 2024

It will be a relatively busy economic calendar this week with inflation and trade data from a number of countries, notably China.

Locally, Malaysia will release its foreign reserves data as at Dec 29, 2023, on Monday. The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to US$112.8 billion as at Dec 15, 2023.

Malaysia is also set to release its manufacturing sales value and industrial production for November 2023 on Thursday. Manufacturing sector sales value fell 1.4% year on year to RM156.7 billion in October 2023, while industrial production rebounded in October 2023, recording a y-o-y growth of 2.7%.

Across the Causeway, attention will be on the news flow relating to the upcoming Singapore Budget 2024 statement to be delivered by Finance Minister Lawrence Wong in parliament on Feb 16.

Eyes will also be on the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s announcement of the January monetary policy statement date, which should be no later than Jan 29, as indicated in its Advance Release Calendar.

China will be releasing its December 2023 foreign reserves on Sunday, and its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and trade data and M2 money supply data for December 2023 on Friday.

A Bloomberg poll shows that analysts expect China’s inflation rate to fall 0.3% y-o-y in December, from -0.5% y-o-y in November, and December Producer Price Index (PPI) to improve slightly to -2.7% y-o-y, from -3% y-o-y in November.

Taiwan’s data releases will include December trade data on Tuesday, which Bloomberg estimates will show exports improving to between 4.9% and 5.1% y-o-y, from 3.8% y-o-y in November, while imports also recover to a range of -10.5% to -6.4% y-o-y, from -14.8% y-o-y the month before.

“Trade surplus will likely come in at between US$8.6 billion and US$9.96 billion, from US$9.8 billion in November,” UOB Global Economics and Markets Research economist Alvin Liew said in a Jan 5 report.

India will also release its December CPI and November industrial production data on Friday, while Australia will announce data for its November retail sales and building approvals on Tuesday, November CPI on Wednesday and November trade data the next day.

“[Australia’s] November CPI is estimated to fall to 4.5% y-o-y from 4.9% in October, while the trade data is estimated to amount to a trade surplus of A$7.5 billion (RM23.33 billion) from A$7.129 billion in October,” Liew said.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea (BoK) will be the first major Asian central bank with a monetary policy decision for 2024 due on Thursday. According to a poll on Bloomberg, all three analysts expect the BoK to stand pat in January.

“We also expect the BoK to keep rates unchanged in this meeting. The BoK appeared to have softened its hawkish stance in November. It still sees inflation continuing its underlying trend of a slowdown. We think the interest rate has peaked but with inflation more persistent and household loan growth staying strong, we have pushed back our call for BoK’s rate cut to start in 3Q2024 instead of 2Q2024,” Liew noted.

Over in the US, key data releases will be its December CPI and core CPI on Thursday. Inflation is understood to have cooled faster than anticipated late last year.

“The core measure of personal consumption expenditures price inflation showed prices fell 0.1% in November, taking the annual rate of increase below 3%. The core rate, for which 2% is targeted by the Federal Open Market Committee, fell to 3.2%, its lowest since March 2021,” S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a report last Friday.

“Markets will be watching for whether this good news will be repeated in the coming week, which sees further inflation insights from the CPI. Annual CPI cooled in November to 3.1%, with a core rate stuck at 4%. Further progress lower is not a sure thing, especially as forward-looking survey data hint at some stickiness above the 2% level in the coming months,” it added.

Bloomberg estimates the US’ December CPI will notch up to 3.3% y-o-y from 3.1% in November, while core CPI is predicted to dip to 3.8% in December, compared with 4% in November.

People will also be watching for consumer credit for November on Monday, NFIB Small Business Optimism for December on Tuesday, final US November wholesale inventories on Wednesday, as well as US initial jobless claims and December PPI final demand in the next two days.

Meanwhile, trade data from Canada is due out on Tuesday, while a series of data releases from the United Kingdom will include its November monthly gross domestic product, industrial production, index of services, construction output and trade this week.

Over in the local courts, the 1Malaysia Development Bhd hearing before presiding judge Datuk Collin Lawrence Sequerah continues on Monday, while Thursday will see the hearing of Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi opposing the Malaysian Bar’s move to review the deputy prime minister’s discharge not amounting to an acquittal.

On the corporate front, Bursa Malaysia-listed companies that will hold their annual general meetings (AGMs) include UWC Bhd on Monday, Top Glove Corp Bhd and Saudee Group Bhd on Wednesday, and KESM Industries Bhd and Trive Property Group Bhd on Thursday. Astino Bhd’s AGM will be held on Friday, while PIE Industrial Bhd will hold its extraordinary general meeting on the same day.

Save by subscribing to us for your print and/or digital copy.

P/S: The Edge is also available on Apple's App Store and Android's Google Play.