Note: The headline and first paragraph of this article has been amended for accuracy

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 7): Genting Singapore may bid for a casino and integrated resort licence in Thailand, should the Thai government open up the industry, according to Maybank Investment Bank Research (Maybank IB).

Citing the research house, industry magazine Inside Asian Gaming (IAG) said the company would look to form a joint venture for a Thai IR licence, based on its previous exploits in Korea and Japan.

“While we acknowledge that Thai IRs are more likely to be a threat to Genting Singapore than to (Resorts World Genting operator) Genting Malaysia, we note from history that Genting Singapore is not averse to expanding overseas to partially stave off competition.

“Recall that Genting Singapore tried to expand into Jeju, South Korea until November 2016, and Yokohama, Japan until September 2021, in order to partially stave off competition from them.

“Thus, we do not discount the possibility that Genting Singapore may form a joint venture to bid for a Thai IR licence, should Thailand liberalise its casino industry,” it said.

Maybank IB expects Genting Singapore’s earnings to return to pre-Covid levels in 2024, shrugging off the liability of recent tax increases, thanks to the return of Chinese tourists.

“We expect most of the growth in gaming revenue this year to come from Chinese tourists.

“Even before 3Q2023, the mass market (which traditionally contributes around 75% of earnings) was already hitting pre-Covid levels, despite the lack of Chinese tourists, due to new migrants and wealth created by higher property prices.

“The return of Chinese tourists en masse in 3Q2023 drove mass market gross gaming revenue to 8% above the FY2019 quarterly average, and VIP volume to 36% above the FY2019 quarterly average. In fact, the 3Q2023 VIP volume of SG$11.3 billion was the highest since 2Q2015,” it said.

Maybank IB expects this growth to consolidate and continue in FY2024, as seat capacity for flights from China to Singapore recovers.

“December 2023 seat capacity from China to Singapore currently stands at 87% of December 2019 levels. Singapore also recently granted a 30-day visa free entry to Chinese visitors. Thus, we hope that Chinese visitation to RWS will recover completely this year.

“In the long term, we expect Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) VIP volume and mass market gross gaming revenue to exceed 2019 levels by around 20%.”

Maybank IB estimates Genting Singapore’s revenue to reach SG$2.66 billion (US$2.0 billion) in 2024, with adjusted Ebitda (earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) climbing to SG$1.25 billion (US$941 million).