This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on December 25, 2023 - December 31, 2023

ALTHOUGH the outcome of the six state elections in August did not alter the balance of power within the country, the political ground within certain states shifted just nine months after the 15th general election (GE15) in November 2022.

While the unity government insisted the state elections held for the Negeri Sembilan, Selangor, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu assemblies did not constitute a referendum on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s administration at the federal level, members of the opposition played this to their advantage.

If, indeed, it was a referendum on Anwar’s performance as PM, he has a very tough challenge ahead of him, as the overwhelming results show that the Malays reaffirmed their choice in GE15 and were not swayed towards the unity government.

To be fair, could the unity government have done anything material that would have changed the outlook of the Malays within the short nine months in power? But in politics, a week is a long time, to paraphrase Harold Wilson, who served as UK prime minister twice (1964 to 1970 and again from 1974 to 1976).

After being sworn in as Malaysia’s 10th prime minister on Nov 24, 2022, Anwar called for a vote of confidence in parliament, reflecting his own belief that he had the backing of a majority of the elected representatives in the Dewan Rakyat.

However, this was done after member coalitions of the unity government signed a memorandum of agreement to back Anwar as the PM — leading to opposition leader Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin calling the motion a political gimmick.

Nonetheless, Anwar was reaffirmed as “PMX”, as he is referred to on social media, through a voice vote.

While he sailed through the vote of confidence, at the same time, 10 MPs from Barisan Nasional were said to be backing Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin. So, at that point, the number of MPs who truly supported him as the PM was not clear.

When he was sworn in as PM, he had the support of at least 117 MPs in parliament. However, Anwar claimed to have the support of more than 130 MPs in the Dewan Rakyat. Nevertheless, it was clear that no one else had the majority support in the august house.

This principle that an MP’s support in the Dewan Rakyat is the basis for someone to be appointed as the prime minister by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, not the support of a party or coalition, was tested again starting in October 2023 when five Bersatu MPs declared their support for Anwar.

Prior to the additional support being given to Anwar as the PM by opposition MPs, there had been attempts to topple the government.

In April this year, rumours emerged that a number of MPs from the Barisan Nasional coalition were going to quit their parties and join the opposition in an attempt to topple the government. However, the purported plan did not materialise.

While no real attempts — no motions of no confidence, statutory declarations or government MPs declaring loss of confidence in Anwar — were made, it certainly distracted the government’s efforts to rebuild the country.

Although the Aug 12 elections were for the six state assemblies, the level of campaigning felt like it was for another general election. As this paper reported, it was “State elections like no other”.

From the outset, the six state elections were packaged differently by the coalitions. The unity government coalition presented the narrative that the election was to ensure a streamlining of policies at the federal and state levels, which would require the same coalition being elected into government.

Meanwhile, Perikatan Nasional saw it as an opportunity to take over Putrajaya because if it had won the state elections, the federal government would collapse, and parties supporting Anwar would switch sides to support Muhyiddin, chairman of the coalition.

While the narratives may seem different, both coalitions were effectively saying that the state and federal governments must be led by the same coalition to ensure sustainable economic development.

As the federal government coalition, Pakatan Harapan and BN were basically saying that PN is not capable of governing the states, judging by the poorer quality of basic infrastructure such as water and roads in states where they rule.

This “carrot dangling” was also supported by “revelations” of allegedly corrupt practices by some PN leaders, particularly in Kedah, where Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor was fast becoming the “general” for his party, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and PN.

Home Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail campaigned extensively in Kedah, armed with what he claimed was “proof” that Sanusi, the then caretaker menteri besar of Kedah, had been involved in the theft of rare earth materials in the state. This led to brickbats between the two during the election campaign in the state, seen as the battleground for the Malays’ hearts and minds, as it was a swing state prior to the Aug 12 polls.

Meanwhile, the state elections were also seen as a litmus test for the cooperation between PH and BN in election campaigning. Leaders of the coalitions often shared the same stage, and showed their solidarity with one another in an effort to convince audiences that their collaboration was genuine.

Despite the leaders’ attempts, the campaigns were still divided between the PH and BN trails. PH campaign events saw more red than blue shirts, while BN’s were dominated by blue shirts. This sent mixed signals to the people, especially the Malays.

Meanwhile, for PN, it was green all along, especially in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. In these states, PAS is the dominant party compared with Bersatu, due to the high percentage of Malay-Muslim electorates.

After about two weeks of campaigning, the results showed that the Malays had yet to warm up to PH and the unity government coalition, with most of the Malay-majority seats going to PN, except in Negeri Sembilan, where BN still held sway over the Malays in the state.

PN won by a landslide in Kedah and Kelantan, and totally wiped out PH-BN in Terengganu. It also gained seats in Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, winning most of the Malay-majority seats in those states.

From holding only five seats prior to the dissolution, PN won 22 seats in the Selangor assembly. The coalition also gained eight seats in Penang, for a total of 11 out of the 40 seats, with PAS itself having seven seats in the Chinese-dominant state.

Although it did not lead to any change at the federal level, the outcome of the six state elections served as a sombre reminder to the unity government coalition that it did not garner the majority of votes from the biggest ethnic group in the country.

But a referendum it was not, according to Prof Wong Chin Huat of think tank Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia.

“Referendum is an abused word in Malaysia, when this is used to mean the whole of Malaysia and as a basis to change a government, when only 45% of voters were involved,” he says.

Comparing the six state elections with that of the US’ mid-term election, Wong says that the elections are potentially a barometer of what is to come in GE16, when three corners collapse into straight fights.

“The outcome shows that PH could retain and even pool its votes for Umno, but not vice versa. Hence, the verdict was on Umno, and by extension, a new mega coalition of PH-BN. If Anwar wants to gamble on this for GE16, it is likely PN would grow stronger,” Wong explains.

Malaysia has had a tumultuous four years politically since February 2020, which led to four changes of government and four PMs. The political instability caused a loss of confidence among investors, complicating the country’s journey towards a sustainable growth path. Therefore, it is no surprise that the unity government is trying its level best to ensure political stability, even perhaps at the expense of fairness.

While denying that he used the MPs’ allocations as bait to gain the support from opposition MPs, withholding their allocations did influence some of them to back Anwar. In October, the first opposition MP representing Kuala Kangsar, Datuk Iskandar Dzulkarnain Abdul Khalid, declared his support for Anwar as the PM, without quitting his party. Iskandar has received the parliamentary allocation after making the declaration of confidence for Anwar as PM.

Emulating Iskandar, four other opposition MPs from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia also declared their support for the PM. They consist of the MPs for Labuan, Gua Musang and Jeli, Kelantan and Bukit Gantang, Perak.

On Nov 20, Datuk Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz Syed Abdul Fasal, the MP for Bukit Gantang, lamented that his requests for allocations from the government were not entertained. He even said that he could support Anwar as PM if he were given the allocations.

Some netizens and non-governmental organisations were riled up by this “allocation for support” mechanism. The argument is that the rakyat in these constituencies should not be penalised just because they did not vote for the government in an election.

Anwar has often projected himself as a gentleman in politics, campaigning for the rule of law and transparency in governance. But when it comes to ensuring political stability in the country, he has shown that he is willing to take the gloves off.

As a result of Anwar’s political acumen, Malaysia has a government that commands the confidence of two-thirds of the representatives in the Dewan Rakyat, the first time since 2008. However, in the current political climate, nothing is set in stone.

In an interview with TV3 to mark his one year in power, Anwar admitted that he was still struggling to win over the Malay votes. While acknowledging his frustration over the slow pace of reforms, he said, “we must navigate wisely and prioritise political stability”.

About a week later, he reshuffled his cabinet and appointed a corporate figure as finance minister II. The market seems to have reacted positively to this latest development.

What else can be expected from the unity government?

The next election will be for the Sabah state assembly, which has to be called by Dec 8, 2025. The government has at least two years to implement its plans to restore confidence in the economy and put Malaysia back on the right path of socioeconomic development. 

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