This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on December 4, 2023 - December 10, 2023

AS the unity government marks one year in power, some wonder whether it can last another year. While the Anti Party-Hopping Law is making it difficult for members of parliament (MPs) to change allegiances, coalitions can still switch sides en bloc.

And the support given by the five Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) MPs to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim also shows that MPs are still free to throw their support to any leaders, without having to quit their respective parties.

Given that the unity government comprises coalitions that prior to the 15th General Election (GE15) were campaigning against each other, questions arise as to whether the dust has settled in the political arena and whether all parties are moving towards the same goal.

Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, professor of political sociology at Universiti Sains Malaysia, says: “[The government] is more stable compared to 2018 to 2022 with a strong two-thirds majority. For the first time since 2008, we see a government with a two-thirds majority. It’s a sign of stability and certainty as well.

“In fact, it gives political and moral legitimacy to the current leadership to continue with policies and what needs to be done for the coming years.”

The unity government came to power through a political compromise between Pakatan Harapan (PH), led by Anwar, and former adversary Barisan Nasional (BN) leader Datuk Seri Zahid Hamid, after GE15 concluded with no single coalition gaining a simple majority.

Together with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Parti Warisan Sabah and the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), Anwar was sworn in as the 10th Prime Minister after securing 148 votes — the exact number for a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat.

Then, the withdrawal of support from Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman caused the unity government to lose the two-thirds majority. This loss did not last long, however, as five Bersatu MPs, starting with Kuala Kangsar MP Iskandar Zulkarnain Abdul Khalid threw their support to the PM. Today, Anwar enjoys the support of 152 MPs in the Dewan Rakyat.

Nevertheless, with coalitions still having the room to manoeuvre politically, theoretically, the unity government can still fall. Most political analysts whom The Edge spoke to believe, however, that the unity government will last for a term.

“It can last a full term unless Anwar wants an early election, likely using simultaneity with some state elections,” says Wong Chin Huat, professor at the Jeffrey Sachs Center on Sustainable Development of Sunway University.

In the unity government coalition, PH holds 81 seats, followed by BN with 30, GPS with 23 seats, GRS with six and other smaller parties with a total of seven seats. The five Bersatu MPs who support Anwar’s leadership are not counted as a coalition.

This means the unity government can collapse only if both BN and GPS abandon it. In this scenario, the opposing bench will have a total of 127 seats in the Dewan Rakyat, more than the simple majority of 112 seats needed to form the federal government.

If only GRS and the smaller parties that collectively hold seven seats abandon the unity government, it will not result in a change of government. And if only BN or GPS abandons Anwar, the government still stands.

If BN and the other smaller parties that collectively hold seven seats switch sides, the country will have a hung parliament, as no coalition will hold a simple majority of 112 seats. This is assuming that the five Bersatu MPs that supported Anwar will return to supporting Perikatan Nasional (PN).

It would take a lot for this kind of manoeuvring to happen, especially as relationships between PH and BN have improved over the last one year. The unity government has also done a lot to revisit the Malaysia Agreement 1963, which will placate the Borneo Bloc.

“A year ago, some were doubtful whether the working relationship between PH and BN would last. After one year, however, the labelling, stigma and stereotyping between the component parties, especially Umno and DAP, have reduced and the government is moving in the right direction,” says Sivamurugan.

“Maybe the political remarks based on ideology among the leaders do not exist anymore, and all are willing to compromise and sacrifice to retain the government.”

Nevertheless, Sivamurugan believes the unity government might continue to face the threat of falling if it fails to attract support from fence-sitters, who are leaning towards PN. Judging from the declining approval ratings of the PM so far, it does not seem like the unity government is winning the political narrative.

Be that as it may, the Sabah elections, which must be held before Dec 8, 2025, are the first test of the popularity of the unity government. This means the unity government has at least 1½ years before the election campaigning starts again.

Although the unity government might be able to stay for the full term, it will not be without challenges. While challenges from without are a given, Anwar will also have to undertake a delicate balancing act within the unity government.

In the immediate term, the first test would be the cabinet reshuffling that many expect to happen soon. In this regard, while Anwar would want to have a strong cabinet, he will still have to ensure that all parties, including his own Parti Keadilan Rakyat, are happy with the arrangement.

“He has to look at the current members’ performance, their commitment to his Madani agenda and, of course, his hands are tied to the collaboration with other coalition component parties. He needs a team who are willing not to compromise his agenda and will put aside political interest, and if that happens, we might see a major overhaul [of the cabinet],” says Sivamurugan.

While there are grouses about the performance of some cabinet ministers, a major overhaul might not be on the cards because Anwar needs the support of the coalition partners — PH alone cannot form the government.

“PH does not have enough support. Umno is weak. So, [Anwar] has to help Zahid, and use [Parti Amanah Negara] to make inroads to fight the green wave, at the expense of [reform],” says Edmund Terence Gomez, formerly with Universiti Malaya.

A cabinet reshuffle could send the message to the public and investors that Anwar has control of the government. A successful reshuffle could provide a signal that all is well in the unity government, and that political competition has been set aside for the benefit of the country. In short, the outcome of the cabinet reshuffle would signal whether the focus is on performance or politics.

At the end of the day, the main challenge that the unity government faces is implementing sustained reforms and a restructuring of the economy to achieve a sustained growth trajectory that will narrow income gaps so that they converge to the income levels of developed countries.

In 1998, at the start of the Reformasi movement initiated by Anwar, he had said that political actions such as the setting up of a new party were “tactical manoeuvres”.

“The underlying principle is initiating change and reform of the system,” Anwar was quoted as saying at the time.

Having said that, Anwar “cannot afford to be distracted, or diverge from time to time into other matters” such as political concerns, says Dr Oh Ei Sun, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia.

“He needs to be focused on making Malaysia an attractive place that is open for business again,” Oh says.

Dr Yeah Kim Leng, professor and director of economics studies at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia, says the Madani Economy Framework prescribes values and principles not only for strengthening the economic foundations but also to develop a harmonious, cohesive and progressive society that leaves no one behind.

To this end, Yeah says, the main hurdles are related to the continuing need to raise the standard and quality of the education system and human capital development, as well as pertaining to government delivery and governance systems.

“A sustained focus on curbing corruption, leakages and wastage can lead to increased investor confidence and stronger multiplier effects of government spending on raising annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth by up to a percentage point,” he says. 

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