JOHOR BAHRU (Sept 7): While Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Umno may not be directly participating in the Pulai by-election, their influence on the election's trajectory is undeniable.

The by-election has reached its final phase, with a significant shift in focus. It has moved from the question of whether the Unity Government can maintain its two-thirds majority in Parliament to a new narrative introduced by the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN).

This follows the High Court's decision this week to grant a discharge not amounting to acquittal (DNAA) to Zahid, who had faced 47 charges in the Yayasan Akalbudi corruption case. Under the opposition's new narrative, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, seen by many as a progressive reformist, is accused of compromising his principles to facilitate the dropping of the graft charges against Zahid.

At a ceramah held on Tuesday in Kempas state constituency (which is within the Pulai parliamentary constituency), Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin once again took a firm stance against Anwar and Zahid. He mockingly referred to Anwar as the "teacher" who supposedly showed excessive favoritism to his "student" Zahid. This, according to Hamzah, led to Anwar sacrificing the struggle for reform in order to secure Zahid's exoneration from the corruption charges.

Hamzah also countered Pakatan Harapan (PH) leaders who drew comparisons between Zahid's case and that of Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin. He pointed out that in Zahid's trial, the prosecution applied for the DNAA after a prima facie case had been established, whereas in Muhyiddin's case, it was his own legal team that filed for the charges to be dismissed.

In making this argument, Hamzah not only sought to garner the support of Malay voters but, more crucially, to sway votes at the grassroots level within Umno. Kempas state constituency has a total of 4,336 voters, of whom 1,597 (approximately 37%) are Malays.  Chinese voters make up 45%, totaling 1,947 individuals.

In the 15th general election, the late Amanah deputy president Datuk Seri Salahhudin Ayub, representing PH, received 1,906 votes in Kempas. Umno secured the second-highest number of votes with 667, while the PN candidate received 549 votes. This time around, PN is striving to secure 90% of the Malay votes, which necessitates gaining the support of Umno's grassroots.

Political analyst Datuk Jeniri Amir shares a similar perspective. He told The Edge that some Umno grassroots votes may shift towards PN as a manifestation of their dissatisfaction with the leadership.

This perspective strongly resonates with young Malay voters. Hassan, a 28-year-old resident of Kempas, openly shared with The Edge his observation that young Malay voters hold a significant aversion towards Umno and Zahid.

"Many Malays are deeply dissatisfied with the rising cost of living, and now, with Zahid receiving a DNAA, I believe the coalition government will lose even more votes," he said.

Nevertheless, Johor, being the birthplace of Umno, remains a political stronghold with a substantial grassroots presence. Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz, Pulai Umno chief Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed and Kempas state assemblyman Datuk Ramlee Bohani have consistently led PH candidates into Malay areas, striving to maintain Umno's grassroots support.

Conversely, Amanah continues to leverage on the legacy of Salahhudin, hosting numerous Rahmah sales events in Malay areas. Given Salahhudin's impressive track record of service and the favorable sentiments of many voters towards him, PH believes it can retain its Malay voter base.

In contrast to the recently concluded elections in six states, PN leaders have seldom raised the 3R issue in the Pulai by-election, nor have they reiterated the narrative of the Unity Government's potential downfall.

At the Kempas ceramah, Hamzah asserted that PN would continue to act as the opposition, emphasizing the necessity of securing the Pulai parliamentary seat to prevent the coalition government from maintaining a two-thirds majority.

The Unity Government, formed by Anwar in November 2022, has 148 MPs, the exact number required for a two-thirds majority in Parliament. To retain this majority, PH must defend the Pulai seat, which became vacant following the passing of Salahuddin on July 23.

Hamzah also extended his outreach to the Chinese community, highlighting the appointment of Beluran MP Datuk Seri Ronald Kiandee, a Christian, as a vice president of Bersatu as an example to counter the longstanding accusation from PH component party DAP that PN is "extremist". Nevertheless, PN continues to face challenges in making inroads within the Chinese community, as Chinese voters are more preoccupied with the emergence of the "green wave".

Boo, a 45-year-old businessman, expressed such a view to The Edge, saying that while he is displeased with the dropping of graft charges against Zahid, he is more concerned about the surge of the "green wave".

"Yes, we are frustrated about Zahid's DNAA verdict, but we should consider the broader issue, which is the rise of the green wave. They have made significant gains in six state elections, and if this wave reaches Johor, it will instil fear in non-Malay communities."

Under the Pulai parliamentary seat, there are two state seats — Kempas and Perling — with a total of 166,563 registered voters, according to Election Commission statistics as of the last general election.

PH has primarily organized large-scale events in Perling, a constituency represented by DAP's Johor chairman Liew Chin Tong. PH's central goal is to maintain the support of Chinese voters, with a particular focus on persuading Malaysians working in Singapore to return to their hometowns to vote.

Jeniri the analyst pointed out that while many voters are dissatisfied with the Zahid case outcome, they feel constrained because supporting PN means endorsing PAS, and the Chinese community still harbours reservations about PAS's conservative and extremist stances.

"In light of this, with most non-Malay communities, especially the Chinese, still supporting PH, I believe PH can retain this seat, even though the majority of votes may decrease. Naturally, higher voter turnout would be more advantageous for PH."

Although PH is perceived as having a chance to retain this seat, if the election results indicate a further shift of Malay votes from PH-BN towards PN, Zahid may face intensified pressure, potentially impacting the stability of the coalition government.

The Pulai by-election involves a three-cornered contest involving PH candidate Suhaizan Kayat, PN candidate Zulkifli Jaafar and independent candidate Samsudin Mohamad Fauzi. Polling is scheduled for Saturday.