KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 11): With less than 24 hours to go before the state polls, the Selangor Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) unity government’s push to secure the three-term PH stronghold is stumbling over some hurdles — cast from within.

The challenge for PH-BN has always been to convince supporters of BN — now a partner with PH in the Unity Government — to vote for PH candidates, particularly in urban Malay areas. But, as the last day of campaigning ramps up, the other hurdle tripping up the unity government has been the lacklustre support for PH events from the BN grassroots.

At the PN talk in Hulu Kelang on Wednesday (Aug 9) night, featuring its menteri besar candidate Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, the coalition’s top brass “welcomed” what they claimed to be a handful of Umno supporters among those who attended.

During visits to other PH-contested seats on the typical campaign day, there was a notable difference in the size of the BN machinery. What PH candidates need in traditional BN territory is for BN supporters to walk shoulder to shoulder with them, exemplifying the solidarity that hardcore BN supporters need to see, in order to believe.

At a PN Hulu Kelang campaign, a man in a PN shirt claimed to be an Umno member. “We (Umno members) are here (at this event, to support PN), but we’re not making it obvious,” he claimed.

Citing unhappiness over the party leadership, in particular Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, the supposed Umno member was emotional when explaining the reason for his presence at an opposition talk. He said several of them have helped PN to campaign, as a protest against the president and Umno’s partnership with PH overall.

In our walkabouts in the state, the consistent feedback we got from grassroots Umno supporters was of discontent. Discontent with Zahid’s broken promises to not team up with PH chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim or with the party’s bogeyman — DAP; discontent with the internal purge of respected Umno leaders in January; and discontent with Zahid himself.

Even so, Unity Government leaders all spoke of improved collaborations at the grassroots level in recent weeks. For instance, events attended by PH top leaders and candidates appeared to include the participation of those garbed in BN livery.

As discussions about Umno popped up, one comment from a veteran editor stood out — that nobody should underestimate the machinery of this once-dominant party that has presence in over 22,000 “cawangan” (branches) located nationwide.

In BN-contested seats like Gombak Setia, the machinery has cooperated well with PH, with joint decisions and actions being implemented for the campaigning process, according to a party insider.

In Lembah Jaya, where PH candidate Syed Ahmad Syed Abdul Rahman Alhadad (popularly known as the rapper Altimet) is contesting, the coalition organised training sessions for election volunteers at the Umno Ampang building, he told The Edge.

“There is cooperation between BN and PH, in some areas better than in others. It is pretty good in some parts of Selangor — but it is more of PH campaigning for BN candidates,” said political analyst Dr Bridget Welsh, Honorary Research Associate with the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia.

“I don’t see BN going out actively to campaign for PH candidates,” Bridget says. “However they are not opposing [the candidates].”

These instances of lack of unity leave gaps in the PH-BN defence, which could make them vulnerable to PN’s overtures to disgruntled BN supporters.

At least three such constituencies will see intense competition come Aug 12 — Malay-majority urban seats Hulu Kelang in Gombak, Taman Medan in Petaling Jaya, and Batu Tiga in Shah Alam — taking their cue from the thin vote margins of under 10% that separated the two coalitions in the 15th General Election (GE15) nine months ago.

“It’s 50-50 for Hulu Kelang,” says its constituent Ahmad, who gave his vote to PN in 2022. “It depends on where BN (Barisan Nasional) voters go...there are protests (against Zahid), but you can’t really read the situation,” adds the man in his 40s, who was previously a BN supporter.

In the three hot seats, between 19.4%-22.5% of voters opted for BN in GE15. And with Hulu Kelang and Taman Medan having straight fights between PN and PH this Saturday, where these BN votes end up this time around will ultimately determine the winner.

In Taman Medan, motorsports event organiser Haziq says that “it is PH or PN here”. PN even did its candidate list announcement there, which sits in the heart of Petaling Jaya, as a show of force earlier in July.

Unlike in rural areas where PAS takes the lead, PN’s success hinges on Bersatu’s presence in these urban seats, which grew at the expense of Umno even before GE14 in 2018. Once seen as a party without grassroots support, Bersatu has improved its machinery in such locations where its main competition in BN deteriorated in the last five years.

With less than 24 hours to go, the phenomenon where ‘one vote for PH is one vote for BN’ and vice versa “is yet to be created fully”, said Universiti Sains Malaysia Professor of Political Sociology Dr Sivamurugan Pandian. “At the grassroots level, there is still lots of work to be done,” the political analyst said.

At this point, it appears likely that PH will retain the state with a smaller majority. As urban Malay voters become more pragmatic and less fanatic, that race to the finish is the most intense for Selangor in a decade.

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