This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 31, 2023 - August 6, 2023

THE list of candidates has been finalised and the race for who will govern the six states — Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu — for the next five years will start once the nomination process on July 29 concludes.

Unlike in the 14th general election (GE14) and GE15, the state elections will see mainly straight fights between the unity government and Perikatan Nasional (PN), with youth-focused Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) trying to wrestle some seats away, mainly from Pakatan Harapan (PH) incumbents.

Over the past few weeks, we have already seen component parties of the unity government — such as Barisan Nasional's Umno and PH's Parti Keadilan Rakyat, DAP and Parti Amanah Negara — getting a head start in the campaigning via meet-and-greet sessions with voters at events organised in the name of promoting "Madani" values and initiatives.

Yet, support for their opponent PN, which made remarkable inroads in GE15, appears to continue to gather pace, with its events to announce its candidates attracting the attendance of thousands of supporters.

Here is a look at the hottest seats where the fights are expected to be intense — identified based on GE15 voting trends compiled from data at polling stations where the winning margin was no more than 10% — and the key personalities to watch this election season.

(Illustration by Nurul Aida Mohd Noor; data sourced from the Election Commission)

The outcome in Selangor will be the most watched among the six state elections, with Pakatan Harapan (PH) expected to put up a strong defence to maintain control of the state, which it has governed since 2008, against Perikatan Nasional's (PN) charge — led by its former menteri besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali.

Azmin is returning to Hulu Kelang, where he made his state election debut. The seat is within the Gombak parliamentary constituency, which he contested and lost to his protégé and current caretaker MB Datuk Amirudin Shari in GE15.

Azmin will go up against Amirudin's political secretary and Bukit Melawati incumbent Juwairiya Zulkifli, who was reportedly placed there at the last minute instead of Parti Amanah Negara's Anfaal Saari, as Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) wanted to take on their former party leader, who had jumped to Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) in 2020. Will Hulu Kelang, which saw PN enjoy the strongest support among the three state constituencies under Gombak, pave the way for Azmin's comeback to active politics?

Another notable mention is Bersatu's Datuk Seri Rina Mohd Harun, who is attempting a comeback after losing in Sepang in GE15. The former federal minister is vying for Batu Tiga against PH's Danial Rashid (Amanah). In total, Bersatu is contesting 31 of the 56 state seats up for grabs in Selangor.

Meanwhile, Amirudin is defending the Sungai Tua seat against PAS Youth secretary Muhammad Hanif Jamaluddin. PH's share of votes for the Sungai Tua seat dropped to 49.7%, according to GE15 voting data, from 61.6% in 2018. It will be interesting to see whether Amirudin is able to reverse the trend amid consistent attacks on his party's collaboration with long-time rival Barisan Nasional.

BN's performance has been particularly weak in urban areas such as Selangor, where it won only four state seats in GE14, down from 12 in GE13 (2013) and 20 in GE12 (2008).

If GE15 votes were translated into state seats, BN would have won only two seats last November, amid the infighting between Umno President Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and its dissidents, who include former party Selangor chief Tan Sri Noh Omar, who is widely seen as an influential figure in the state's northern region.

Noh's daughter, Nurul Syazwani Noh, will contest under PN's ticket the Permatang seat, one of two state seats under the Tanjong Karang parliamentary constituency that Noh had held since 1995, until he was dropped from contesting in GE15. Nurul Syazwani will go up against PKR's Tanjong Karang division chief Mohd Yahya Mat Sahri, a former special officer to PH's first Selangor MB, Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim.

In the upcoming polls, BN will contest 12 seats, mostly those that Bersatu contested in 2018 when it was part of PH.

PH reluctantly conceded two seats — Dusun Tua and Gombak Setia, which DAP and PKR held respectively — to its former arch-rival, giving BN the dozen seats to play with. BN is fielding two heavyweights in these constituencies — BN Selangor chairman Datuk Wira Megat Zulkarnain Omardin in Gombak Setia and Umno Hulu Langat division chief Datuk Johan Abd Aziz in Dusun Tua.

Except for Dusun Tua, DAP will defend the remaining 15 seats it won in Selangor during GE14, of which Sungai Pelek and Kuala Kubu Bharu (KKB) will be relatively challenging, according to secretary-general Anthony Loke Siew Fook in a recent interview with party mouthpiece The Rocket.

"Every seat is key for us to put in efforts, but these two seats, Sungai Pelek and KKB, are expected to see relatively more challenges [than the others]," he was quoted as saying.

Sungai Pelek's voter demographic comprises 58.6% Malay voters — the highest number of the ethnic group in DAP's portfolio in Selangor, followed by KKB's 49% and Sekinchan's 45.2%.

Kedah has received much attention since the change of its state government post-Sheraton Move in 2020, in part due to the larger-than-life character of its caretaker menteri besar (MB), Datuk Seri Sanusi Md Nor.

Sanusi's no-holds-barred political speeches have even got him into hot water with the authorities. However, the PAS election director remains wildly popular with Kedahans, partly because he is seen as the biggest thorn in the unity government's flesh.

Sanusi's popularity is being milked by PN to lead another wave of the so-called "green tsunami" across the peninsula, with him defending the Jeneri state seat he won in 2018. Located in the rural district of Sik, Jeneri has been sitting firmly in PN's — or rather PAS's — grasp over the last two general elections.

The PR coalition wrested the seat from BN in 2008 with a 1% majority, when it counted PAS as a member. Though BN took the seat back in 2013 with a 9.1% majority, Sanusi helped PAS claim the seat in 2018 under the now-defunct Gagasan Sejahtera coalition.

While Sanusi's winning margin of 10.7% in 2018 was not big, the support for PN in Jeneri expanded with a margin of 42.1% in GE15, based on the voting pattern seen in the polling stations there for the Sik parliamentary seat.

Meanwhile, another former Kedah MB — Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid — is eyeing a comeback to the state's politics through the Pedu seat, which he won for two terms in 2004 and 2008. Mahdzir left Pedu in GE13 to contest for the Padang Terap parliamentary seat, which he managed to win back from PAS. He kept Padang Terap for two terms too, before losing it in 2022.

But Pedu will not be an easy win for Mahdzir, who is spearheading the PH-BN charge in Kedah, despite the coalition managing to secure a respectable 45.9% of the votes there in 2022 (BN: 39.9%; PH: 6%), as PN had 53.4%. The collective votes for BN-PH in 2018 was 56.9% (BN: 39.6%; PH: 17.3%), versus the then Gagasan Sejahtera's 43.1%, which resulted in the seat returning to PAS after two terms under BN.

Another national leader trying to get back into the state's politics is Datuk Mahfuz Omar, the former four-term member of parliament for Pokok Sena — from 1999 to 2004, and from 2008 to 2018 — mostly under PAS. Mahfuz stood again in Pokok Sena in GE15 under PH (Amanah), but was toppled by PAS Kedah state commissioner Datuk Ahmad Yahaya.

Now, Mahfuz will stand in Alor Mengkudu, one of three state seats under Alor Setar, which happens to be one of the state capitals that fell into PN's hands in 2022, alongside Kuantan in Pahang and Kangar in Perlis. Fielding him in Alor Mengkudu may be PH's strategy to regain the support of Malay voters, to bring Alor Setar back into the PH-BN fold.

Other notable leaders in the Kedah state election include Kedah DAP chairman Tan Kok Yew, contesting the Derga seat against Bersatu's Muhamad Amri Wahab, and PKR's Shamsul Anuar Abdullah, contesting the Padang Serai seat against Bersatu's Khairul Anuar Ramli.

Penang has been in the limelight in recent days, following PH's move to drop a handful of executive councillors (excos) and party stalwarts from its candidates list. Component party PKR has named new faces for eight of the 13 seats it is contesting, while DAP has removed seven of its incumbents.

While DAP's Chow Kon Yeow has been named the chief minister candidate for a second term, caretaker deputy CMs Datuk Ahmad Zakiyuddin Abdul Rahman and Prof P Ramasamy have been dropped as candidates by PKR and DAP respectively.

Zakiyuddin, the Pinang Tunggal incumbent, says he will continue to support PKR contestants, but Ramasamy has been critical of the way his party finalised the candidate line-up.

A scholar, Ramasamy parachuted into Penang in 2008, winning both the Batu Kawan federal and Perai state seats. In 2013, he was replaced by late party veteran P Patto's daughter Kasthuriraani Patto in Batu Kawan. This time in Perai, he is replaced by fresh candidate Datuk Seri Sundarajoo Somu, the former deputy president and CEO of Eco World Development Group Bhd.

Ramasamy's supporter Satees Muniandy was droppped after serving as assemblyman for Bagan Dalam for just one term.

Another supporter, David Marshel, a former councillor with the Seberang Perai City Council, has retaliated and expressed his intention to contest as an independent in Perai. Two others — PN's Sivasuntaram Rajalinggam from Gerakan and MUDA's Vikneswary Harikrishnan — are also expected to stand in Perai.

While most of the urban seats in the state are considered "safe deposits" for PH, the same cannot be said for a handful of Malay-majority constituencies.

In GE15, PN wrested the Malay-majority Tasek Gelugor, Kepala Batas and Permatang Pauh parliamentary seats from Umno and PKR. PH managed to retain Balik Pulau, but by a small margin.

For the Aug 12 election, former minister Datuk Reezal Merican of BN, who had lost his Kepala Batas parliamentary seat to PAS's Siti Mastura Muhammad in GE15 after serving for two terms, will meet incumbent Khaliq Mehtab Mohd Ishaq from PN (Bersatu) in Bertam.

Businessman Khaliq, among the four assemblymen motioned to vacate their seats for party hopping in March, won by a mere 217 votes in 2018.

Within the Permatang Pauh constituency, where PKR's Nurul Izzah lost to cleric Muhammad Fawwaz Mohamad Jan from PAS in GE15, PN is fielding PAS's Amir Hamzah Abdul Hashim in Permatang Pasir while PKR is fielding cleric Rosidi Hussain in Penanti — all indicative of the religious demography of the constituency.

In the BN stronghold of Sungai Acheh, Umno is seeking to wrest back the seat from Zulkifli Ibrahim, who won it by 416 votes in 2018 under a PKR ticket. It will be a tough road ahead for Zulkifli, who has defected to Bersatu.

On Penang island, Gerakan president Dominic Lau has thrown down the gauntlet in Bayan Lepas, a seat comprising 64.8% Malays, causing unease among PAS members, who threatened to withdraw their support.

Lau will go against PH's Azrul Mahathir Aziz from Amanah, who wrested the seat from Umno in 2018 by 5,245 votes. The semi-rural constituency adjoining the Bayan Lepas industrial zone is affected by the Penang South Islands project. In total, Gerakan is contesting in 19 of Penang's 40 seats, as is the case with DAP.

Having failed to make notable inroads in Negeri Sembilan in GE15 with just 22% of the popular vote, PN is making another attempt to penetrate the homeground of key unity government leaders Anthony Loke and Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan by mocking the BN-PH partnership among their loyal supporters.

This election will see Loke, DAP secretary-general and transport minister, defending the Chennah state seat. Interestingly, his competition will be Rosmadi Arif, a local ketua kampung who had garnered praises from Loke himself during the flooding incident in Chennah in 2021. Rosmadi will be contesting on Bersatu's ticket.

Umno deputy president and defence minister Mohamad Hasan will be defending Rantau from underdog PAS's Rozmal Malakan. The Rantau and Chennah seats have a strong showing from both BN and PH, with combined votes secured in GE15 exceeding 80%.

It is a slightly different situation for caretaker MB Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun of PKR, who will defend the Sikamat seat, where PN managed to chip away some of the voter base from both PH and BN in GE15.

Aminuddin is named the MB candidate for this election as well, Prime Minister and PH chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said on July 22, to quash speculation that BN was aiming to push Umno state chief Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias to the state's top post.

Jalaluddin, who is also Jelebu MP, will be defending the Pertang seat against PAS's Amirudin Hassan.

Political observers have differing views about the chances of PN getting more seats in Negeri Sembilan, citing BN's and PH's strong showing in the past.

BN won more than 50% of the popular vote in 2008 and 2013; PH secured 53.9% in the 2018 election.

While PN won no parliamentary seats in 2022, it still garnered a sizeable popular vote of 22%, leaving BN's and PH's voter base at 32.2% and 44.8% respectively.

Ironically, both BN's and PH's strong hardcore supporter base could spell trouble for them, as party leaders had strongly dismissed the possibility of forming a partnership prior to GE15. It remains to be seen whether the supporters will support the unity government arrangement or protest the partnership between these former adversaries.

Another factor in play is Khairy Jamaluddin, who was sacked from Umno earlier this year. The former Rembau MP, now a free agent often critical of Umno, still has clout in Negeri Sembilan — with some comparing his popularity in the state with Mohamad Hasan's.

Other notable candidates include former Communications and Multimedia minister Datuk Eddie Syazlee Shith, who will be contesting on Bersatu's ticket in Juasseh against Umno Negeri Sembilan women chief Puan Sri Bibi Sharliza Mohd Khalid, wife of former menteri besar Tan Sri Isa Samad.

Isa Samad's son, Mohd Najib Mohd Isa, will also be helping Umno defend the Bagan Pinang seat as a new candidate, against PAS's Abdul Fatah Zakaria. Former MB Tan Sri Rais Yatim's son Danni Rais will also be contesting in Klawang under the Bersatu ticket.

Terengganu, formerly seen as a swing state, saw PN's clutches tighten in GE15 as the coalition achieved a clean sweep of all eight parliamentary seats in the state. This is in contrast to GE14, when BN managed to retain two seats.

The focus this time will be on whether BN can retain the 10 seats it won in 2018 against PAS, which secured 62.4% of the votes cast in GE15.

In the prior state election held in conjunction with GE14, PAS formed the Terengganu government with a two-thirds majority of 22 out of 32 seats, led by Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, more fondly referred to by locals as Dr Sam.

Ahmad Samsuri is set to defend his Ru Rendang seat, located within the Marang parliamentary constituency, a PAS stronghold. He will be leading PAS's defence of the state with familiar faces such as PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang's son, Muhammad Khalil Abdul Hadi, who will be defending his Batu Buruk seat.

PAS is fielding candidates for 27 out of the 32 state seats, while Bersatu will contest in the remaining five.

On the other side, BN will be leading the unity government's charge in Terengganu by contesting 27 seats, like PAS. PKR will aim for three seats while Amanah is targeting two. The contest will see BN pitted against many former party strongmen who are now with PN's Bersatu.

BN Terengganu chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Said, who is leading the Pakatan Harapan-BN attempt to take Terengganu, will be defending his Kijal seat, which he has held since 2004, from Bersatu state chief Datuk Razali Idris — formerly Umno youth chief for Terengganu.

Ahmad Said was Terengganu menteri besar between 2008 and 2013. He was succeeded by his colleague Datuk Seri Ahmad Razif Abdul Rahman before the state fell into PAS's hands in 2018. Ahmad Razif is also set to defend his Seberang Takir seat against PN's Khazan Che Mat, who once served as Umno state assembly member for Batu Rakit.

Another notable name among BN's candidates is Datuk Seri Jailani Johari, a former Hulu Terengganu member of parliament and deputy communications minister, who will be contesting the Ajil state seat.

Heavyweights aside, MUDA has decided to field a single candidate in Terengganu as part of its plan to establish its presence in the state. One of its co-founders, Luqman Long, is contesting the Bandar seat in Kuala Terengganu.

Based on GE15 voting trend — and excluding seats in which the election outcome is being challenged in court — BN had the highest number of votes only in Telemung, with a margin of 3.5%. Umno's Datuk Rozi Mamat will defend the seat for a fifth term against Bersatu's Mohd Zawawi Ismail, who once won the Kuala Berang state seat on an Umno ticket.

Kelantan is a stronghold of PAS, which has been the dominant force in the state for the past 33 years. It dominated the state assembly in GE14 after winning 37 seats, compared with BN, which won only eight. It also retained the state with an overwhelming majority in 2018, albeit with a number of seats won with margins of less than 10%.

The green force remained strong, in fact it grew stronger, during GE15 in 2022 — when PAS trounced BN across all 14 parliamentary seats in the state.

And based on the voting trend at the time,  PN would have had a clean sweep of 42 out of 45 state seats (vote count for the remaining three state seats in the Gua Musang parliamentary constituency was not available from the Election Commission as the outcome of the seat is being contested).

Leading the PN defence in the state, PAS is fielding candidates for 39 seats, while Bersatu will vie for the remaining six.

And their defence will be led by PAS leaders, including caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Ahmad Yakob and his deputy Datuk Mohd Amar Abdullah, who will be defending their Pasir Pekan and Panchor seats respectively. Ahmad will be going against Mohamad Zamakh Sari Ibrahim of PKR, while Mohd Amar will defend the seat for the fifth time — this time against PKR deputy state chief Syed Mohd Alidustur Syed Mohd Zain.

Half of PN's candidates in the state polls are new names.

Likewise, BN has dropped many old names, including Umno veteran Datuk Seri Md Alwi Che Ahmad, who served in Kok Lanas. Md Alwi has been replaced by Ahmad Deraman, who will go head to head with Datuk Mohamed Farid Mohamed Zawawi, who was once the political secretary of former home minister Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin of Bersatu.

Only four BN candidates who contested in GE14 will be returning to the polls this Aug 12, which will see 31 Umno candidates here. This compares with six from PKR and seven from Amanah.

Of the four, three are contesting in Galas, Paloh and Nenggiri — state seats within the Gua Musang parliamentary constituency, which some deem as BN's last stronghold. The seat fell to PN with a 0.3% margin in GE15.

Apart from Gua Musang, only the Kota Lama state seat within the Kota Baru parliamentary constituency saw some competition for PN, which secured the seat with a slim 6.1% margin.

While the Pakatan Harapan-BN coalition may have a fighting chance in Kota Lama, it has to deal with the disappointment among its supporters after the seat — traditionally contested by PKR — was given to Amanah's Dr Hafidzah Mustakim, who is running against PAS's Datuk Zamri Ismail.

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