PAGOH (Nov 8): Datuk Seri Razali Ibrahim is a familiar face in northern Johor, having served as the representative for the Muar parliamentary seat for three terms between 2004 and 2018.

The Umno supreme council member was seen as another rising star in politics who hailed from a region that was the birthplace of many leaders of Johor and Malaysia, including his former mentor Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

However, his ignominious exit from Parliament in 2018 at the hands of political upstart Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman in the 14th general election (GE14) sent him to the political wilderness for a few years.

Now, Razali is resurrected. But whether his comeback will be short-lived or not remains to be seen, as he will be fighting against his former mentor Muhyiddin in Pagoh.

Will Razali regain his political momentum in GE15, or will he falter yet again? Will Pagoh be the new power base for him, or will it be the burial ground of his political career?

"If not winning the election is something that is better for me, I accept my fate. That is why perhaps I could accept the decision made by the top leadership of the party for me to stand in Pagoh to face Tan Sri Muhyiddin.

"If I could not accept losing in the election, perhaps it would be better for me to stand in Kota Tinggi," said Razali in jest, hinting that Kota Tinggi is a much easier seat for a Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate to stand in.

Pagoh is almost synonymous with Muhyiddin, the former eighth prime minister, as he has been holding the seat since 1978, except for two terms when he was made menteri besar of Johor between 1986 and 1995.

Now the president of Perikatan Nasional (PN) — a coalition of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia — Muhyiddin is again contesting in Pagoh, and this will be the second time Muhyiddin is contesting in the constituency while not being part of BN after 2018.

Muhyiddin is among the few former BN leaders who could win his seat without being members of the coalition, even when it formed the government of the day.

The only others who could achieve a similar feat include Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Tan Sri Shahrir Samad.

Therefore, is it mission impossible for Razali to unseat Muhyiddin in Pagoh?

Looking back to when he lost the Muar constituency in 2018, Razali said the initial reaction of course was one of shock, confusion, anger and disappointment. However, after four-and-a-half years, losing Muar has led him to Pagoh today.

"My conclusion was that in GE14, BN got into the election with its opponents being the people. For whatever reasons that may be, the people were the opponents for BN. But this time, the people have become observers, they are no longer BN's opponents.

"This is because the coalition that won in GE14 had disappointed the people for whatever reason. Today, the people are looking at either BN or the party that they supported in GE14 [as choices]," said Razali.

Therefore, an additional factor that will come into play this time round is the candidates themselves, and not just the parties anymore, he said.

As someone who has lost before, Razali is not afraid to face Muhyiddin, the giant of Pagoh. Muhyiddin's long service in Pagoh could become a disadvantage, as the cohort of people today is much different than that in the last 44 years, said Razali.

The automatic voter registration and the enfranchisement of those between the ages of 18 and 20 has changed the political landscape in the country, to the extent that no seat is a safe seat for anyone anymore, said Razali. And this includes Pagoh.

"When you have been there for too long, the name is big. But when the name is too big, you don't get to touch the hearts and minds of the small people on the ground. When we have been too big and sitting for too long, we are no longer going down to the ground and eating at the warung.

"Apparently in Pagoh, many people have not met their 'abah', even when almost everyone knows the name. It is not necessarily his fault, because he might be very busy, but the people in Pagoh desire for someone who walks among them," said Razali.

While it cannot be ascertained whether the people of Pagoh really want someone new to represent them until the ballots are counted on the night of Nov 19, Razali does have a point.

Since nomination day on Nov 5, Muhyiddin has had to divide his time between campaigning in Pagoh and elsewhere across the country due to his position as the president of Bersatu and PN.

When asked what his promises are to the people of Pagoh, Razali said that he is not one that makes election promises. Instead, he said he knows what can be done in Pagoh to improve the livelihoods of the people there.

His approach is more about using and expanding what are already there in Pagoh, and making them better, than bringing in new industries or facilities that are not necessarily what the people want or need.

For example, he sees the importance of upgrading and maintaining the road networks in Pagoh so that produce from rural areas can easily be taken out to market. He also sees the importance of improving the drainage system, to avert the threat of flash floods during heavy rains.

In terms of economic activities, he sees the potential of the plant nursery industry in Pagoh that could be promoted nationwide and even for the export market, and also strengthening the furniture-making industry, as well as the Pagoh Education Hub, which is still quite deserted.

"To create employment opportunities, we don't need something new. We can expand what we already have," said Razali.

Pagoh will see a three-cornered fight between incumbent Muhyiddin representing PN, Razali representing BN and Iskandar Shah representing Pakatan Harapan. The constituency has 69,939 voters.

In GE14, the state seat of Bukit Kepong, one of the seats within the Pagoh constituency, was won by Datuk Dr Sahruddin Jamal from Bersatu, then under the PH ticket. He retained the seat in the 2022 Johor state election with a reduced majority of 710 votes.

In the state election, the Bukit Kepong seat saw a four-cornered fight between Sahruddin, Ismail Mohamed from Umno, Afiqah Zulkifli from Malaysian United Democratic Alliance, and Md Taib Md Suhut from Parti Pejuang Tanah Air.

Meanwhile, the Bukit Pasir seat in Pagoh was won by Kapt (R) Najib Lep from PAS. However, BN wrested back the seat from PAS in the 2022 Johor state election with just a 198-vote majority in a six-cornered fight.

This means that in Pagoh, BN is making a comeback through the Bukit Pasir state seat. Will Razali be able to capitalise on the resurging support for BN, especially in Johor, to win back the Pagoh seat for the coalition?

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