After a difficult start, most strategists, analysts and economists are predicting more trouble in the months ahead. The Edge Singapore’s 10 stocks for the Year of the Monkey are a combination of safe, steady names, value buys and stocks with specific catalysts.

This is the 10th year that The Edge Singapore is putting together a portfolio of locally listed securities that we think will beat the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI). Last year was a difficult year with only four counters in the index finishing in positive territory. We expect 2016 to be not much better.

The persistently low price of crude oil is taking a greater toll on the global economy than many expected. In the US, GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was just 0.7%. ABN AMRO Bank’s chief economist Han de Jong points out in a Jan 29 note to clients that the energy sector is a drag on the country’s economy. “The energy sector is capital intensive, so a sharp cut in investment spending has a noticeable impact on total investment spending for the whole economy,” de Jong says. “Durable goods orders fell sharply in December, [by] -5.1% m-o-m... most likely caused by a sharp drop in energy [sector spending].”

Also, many economists had predicted that low prices at the pump would boost consumer spending. But it turns out that the impact from that spending on GDP may not be large. Ajay Kapur, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BOAML) Global Research’s head of Asia and global emerging markets strategy, argues that too much of global growth in the past 15 years has been driven by the very wealthy. “The top 1% of US households account for 20% of national income,” he says. “Plutonomists move the economic dial, not the average consumer.” Unfortunately, lower oil prices have little influence on the spending habits of the rich. “Their spending is a lot more volatile than the average guy’s,” Kapur adds. “Anti-corruption campaigns in emerging markets and a rise in the savings rates of developed- market plutonomists have put a dent on luxury spending.”