This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on May 7, 2018 - May 13, 2018

IN an effort to study the voting patterns or voters’ inclination in the May 9 general election, I actually try consciously to avoid adopting a racialist or regionalist tone. So, when the “catastrophic” term “tsunami” is tossed around to describe a possible one-sided “all in” onto one side of the political divide by a particular group of voters, I try hard to stay away from characterising the tsunami as, for example, a Chinese or Malay one, or even a Sabahan one.

This is mainly because I feel that after more than half a century of nationhood, we should all strive hard to transcend racial or regional lines and fight for our nation’s democratisation as a people. If ever we still distinguish between our immutable differences, we will be distracted from our pursuit of more freedoms and choices for all Malaysians.

So, if there indeed is a tsunami coming, I think, at best, we should characterise it as an urban or rural one. The urban tsunami has long been coming, at least since the last two elections. People living in the urban or suburban areas are more well versed in and exposed to the various best practices around the world, not the least in politics, economics and civil society activism. It is only natural that they feel uncomfortable with the longest ruling administration in the (semi-)democratic world. And it just happened that many of these worldly residents are of Chinese descent, who voted overwhelmingly for the opposition in the last two elections, which prompted the coining of the “Chinese tsunami” phrase five years ago. The Chinese voters alone simply could not bring about the spectacle whereby more than half the voters opted for the opposition.

Conversely, rural voters who are more dependent on the largesse of the incumbent government would tend to vote for the latter. And it just happens that most of these voters are Malays, which is perhaps what also prompted the coining this round of the phrase “Malay tsunami”, which is still yet to be seen. But again, either a Malay or a Chinese tsunami alone is not sufficient to bring about the kind of change in government that many desire to see. If ever there is a tsunami, it has to be a Malaysian one.

Nomination day gave no hint of such tsunami as the process went by without too much outwardly expressed strong sentiments from either side. In Sabah, the throngs of white-shirted supporters hoisting flags and ushering Parti Warisan Sabah president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal to his nomination appear overwhelming on online video, but otherwise, the process went on smoothly. The many processions in Peninsular Malaysia were much as expected.

PAS, as expected, contested more than two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, with its again expected war cries of winning most and forming government alone. But what eventually would happen is that it is more likely to play a kingmaker or spoiler role in this election. There is no denying that PAS’ spiritual appeal is extremely strong, especially among those who are sick and tired of what they perceive as rampant corruption and blatant abuse of power. So, instead of voting for Pakatan Harapan, these voters are likely to vote for PAS, thus dimming PH’s dream of capturing more seats. And if PAS continues after the election with its pattern of almost open collaboration with Umno, then the notion of a tsunami, especially the rural version, would be much attenuated.

Indeed, my Malay friends have been telling me that the response from their community to this election, compared with the previous two, has, at best, been lukewarm towards both sides. They attributed this to their lethargy towards what they called “toxic politics”, whereby politicians attacked each other relentlessly, often using “dirty” tricks, but the substance of what politics should be about — such as economic and social developments — has been much neglected. Some Malay friends mentioned the virally famous Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad video, wherein he appeared to have choked up talking about the country’s prospects. They thought that it summed up quite well the feelings of many in their community towards current politics in general, that past mistakes should be acknowledged and the collective future as Malaysians should be well thought of.

Some Malay friends also felt that, unlike non-Malays in the peninsula who have abandoned MCA and MIC to a large extent for being subservient to Umno, the Malay dilemma is a more subtle one. Some even ventured to suggest that inequality, in its many forms, has always been accepted in the community as the norm due to the still somewhat feudalistic culture. And they, therefore, think that Dr Mahathir was clever in subtly changing the Malay narrative by having the children ask what is the true meaning of merdeka in the video. They are of the opinion that if more such somewhat sentimental political messaging is put forward by Dr Mahathir and his team, then it might gain traction and the opposition might eventually get a fighting chance. But time is definitely not on its side as the campaigning period is very short, with scarcely a week left before voting starts.

After listening to my friends’ musings, I feel that there is perhaps a sort of mental tug of war within the Malay community and among many Malay voters, whereby they have to, in a sense, choose between nostalgia for Dr Mahathir’s admittedly transformative policies of yesteryear and their pragmatic need for the current administration’s more targeted policies to develop the community. When I shared this with my Malay friends, they, nonetheless, opined that this sort of dilemma is perhaps more applicable to the socioeconomically needy lot, which cuts across racial lines.

Indeed, I am elated to observe that so far the campaigning has not acquired an overly racialist tone and I hope it will remain that way until polling day and beyond.

Dr Oh Ei Sun advises policy institutes in Malaysia and abroad. He was political secretary to the prime minister from 2009 to 2011.

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