This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily on May 7, 2018 - May 13, 2018
ONE month ago, Selangor Barisan Nasional launched a 10-point manifesto featuring 100 initiatives for the people of Selangor if it succeeds in recapturing the state in the 14th general election.
That’s a rather big “if”, say political analysts and voters who spoke to The Edge Malaysia weekly last week. The broad view was that Selangor, the most urbanised state in Malaysia, is “unwinnable” for BN.
Independent pollster Ibrahim Suffian, who predicts that BN will retain power at the federal level on May 9, thinks the coalition “has little to no chance of recapturing Selangor”. Their best hope, he says, is to take advantage of multi-cornered contests to try and gain more seats.
Their chances are low because support for Pakatan Rakyat (PR), which captured the state in 2008 when PAS was in the fold, was at about 60% when it retained Selangor in GE13 in 2013, he says.
“To make gains, they really need to surpass a very high threshold,” says Ibrahim, who is executive director of the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research.
Things are not that much different since PAS quit PR in 2015 and the coalition was reborn as Pakatan Harapan (PH) with the addition of Parti Amanah Negara — a splinter party of PAS — and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.
“To win Selangor, they need to win the hearts and minds of a large of number of non-Malay voters that make up the electorate. In addition, they need to nominate a strong menteri besar who can be a credible alternative to [Datuk Seri Mohamed] Azmin Ali. BN does not appear to have anyone in that league in this particular election,” says Ibrahim.
Even Selangor BN chairman Tan Sri Noh Omar is not too optimistic about the coalition’s chances in Selangor. He told reporters in March that he would be happy if BN could obtain a simple majority.
“I am not too ambitious and would be happy if we are able to obtain a simple majority. We have 56 state assembly seats in Selangor ... so looking at the overall perspective, there are 36 seats we can win. We have to face reality. There are some seats that we can win, some are 50-50, and there are those which we will lose,” he was quoted as saying.
BN took 12 out of 56 state seats in Selangor in GE13, securing just 39% of the popular vote. DAP and PAS won 15 seats each while PKR took 14. PAS, notably, made strong inroads in Selangor, doubling its seats from just eight into 2008, due to a stronger opposition showing throughout the country.
For Selangor voters, the factors that have kept them happy with the incumbent government include a waiver of assessment rates for low-cost flats, free water, a charismatic menteri besar in Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and his Peduli Rakyat initiatives.
Yusri Harun, 50, thinks there are plenty of benefits for Selangor folk under PH. The rakyat are also more empowered, he says. Since Pakatan took control of Selangor, he knows who his district councillors are and what they do.
“We know them and can see them often, so we can complain straight to them about issues that affect us, be it a blocked drain, irregular garbage collection or anything else. It is totally different from the BN period,” the voter in the Paya Jaras state seat tells The Edge Malaysia weekly.
As for the water disruption that Selangor faced in March that affected over 563,660 people, Yusri says Sungai Buloh, where he lives, was not affected. “But I think we can’t blame the Selangor government 100% for this. All parties must be responsible for it, especially when it always happens when an election is near,” he says, referring to the impasse in the state’s water asset restructuring and the federal government’s role in it. The last water crisis in Selangor happened in January 2013.
‘People not fanatic about parties now’
It is actually “very easy” if BN wants to win back Selangor, says Yusri, who has an administrative job in an engineering consultancy firm in Kelana Jaya. “Frankly, people are not fanatic about any parties these days, unlike in the past. Just show you can govern well and fulfil the promises you have made. People can see for themselves.”
So far, however, Yusri says BN representatives have yet to show they can do what they promised. “They promised two things in the past general election: to resolve the traffic congestion here and build us a new secondary school as the current one in Saujana Utama is congested. But until now, still nothing,” he says.
He is also unhappy that the government cannot control the retail price of petrol. “Now that the election is coming, petrol has not risen even a sen in the past several weeks. It’s too clear lah. Don’t give excuses to the people. We don’t really understand the big economic issues, but this simple thing we can see for ourselves lah.”
Like many urbanites, Grab driver Johari, 39, who is voting in Shah Alam, feels that the more important issues burdening the rakyat are the rising prices of goods, which he blames on the goods and services tax (GST), and stagnant wages, which he claims the federal government has failed to resolve. “They (BN) said after GST comes in, some things will be cheaper. Where got?”
Asked whether he is comfortable that the PH coalition includes Chinese-majority DAP but not PAS, he retorts, “The race issue again! I would like to ask my Malay brethren: is there a difference between a Malay cheating a Malay and a Chinese cheating a Malay? Do you feel better if you’re cheated by your own race? We all suffer when we have a bad government. We are all good on the ground, so tell those politicians to stop inciting hatred among us.”
New electoral borders advantage and the PAS factor
There are 2.42 million voters in Selangor, of whom 1.25 million (51.93%) are Malays; 786,710 (32.57%) Chinese; 333,268 (13.8%) Indians; and 40,894 (1.7%) from other ethnic groups.
A majority of the Malays voted for BN in GE13. If their choice remains unchanged, seven state seats won by Pakatan Rakyat in Selangor then could go to BN following the recent redelineation exercise, which resulted in the creation of a number of mono-ethnic constituencies.
The seven seats are Ijok, Dusun Tua, Sementa, Selat Klang, Pelabuhan Klang, Sijangkang and Morib, The Edge Malaysia weekly has previously reported. Sementa, for example, used to have 45.6% Malays, 28.1% Chinese and 25.7% Indians. It now has a whopping 75.49% Malays, 13.14% Chinese and 10.65% Indians.
Several other constituencies won by PR are said to have also become marginal seats. They are Taman Templer, Gombak Setia, Hulu Kelang, Taman Medan, Paya Jaras, Batu Tiga, Seri Serdang and Sungai Kandis (previously Seri Andalas). Assuming BN retains its 12 seats from GE13, plus the 15 seats that may fall following the redelineation, it will have at least 27 seats in the state legislative assembly, which is still short of the 29 seats it needs for a simple majority.
PAS, which left PR over differences with DAP, has not openly declared itself as an ally to Umno, but the two parties have avoided outright attacks on each other. Given the above tally, just two more seats from PAS would then enable BN to form a simple-majority coalition government. Some political observers, like Associate Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi at the Academy of Malay Studies in Universiti Malaya, is not discounting that possibility.
National issues aside, the BN candidates’ list, with many young faces in Selangor, is a plus for the coalition, according to political analyst Azmi Hassan.
The party must now prove it is very different from previously, when internal bickering led to its downfall in 2008, says Azmi. “If they can be convinced, then the Selangor voters may vote for change [back to BN] since they are confident the people’s welfare is the priority,” he says via a text exchange.
Hardcore rural support and communal fears
But disillusionment with BN over governance issues like those at troubled strategic investment fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) has spread. Such sentiment has even spilt over to BN’s hardcore supporters on the outskirts of Selangor, including Malay youth, though many are still wary of PH.
“We don’t want [Datuk Seri] Najib Razak anymore. He has got too many scandals. And the BN explanation about 1MDB ... come on lah, we are not kids lah,” says Asri, 29, the more vocal among a group of four young men this writer met when they were sharing an early dinner at a roadside shop in Kampung Jawa. “We are now 50-50 about which party to choose. But if BN drops Najib, we will choose BN straight. To us, there is no difference under either coalition. But we don’t want our Malay rights to be taken away under PH; we don’t want Chinese to control the economy,” he says.
Asked why they believe that the three Malay-based parties in the PH coalition would allow that to happen, he hesitates a moment, before saying, “Because they want to win, they will agree to anything from DAP.”
Taking a trip from bustling Petaling Jaya up to the coastal village of Telok Gong, one gets the sense that the most obvious issue that separates urban and rural Malays is this: the lingering but very real fear of the erosion of Malays’ special rights and the perception that the Chinese will control the economy, which Merdeka Center had highlighted, still topped the list of concerns for many Malays. It also shows that this is an issue PH has not addressed well.
The word ubah used in a question on whether Selangor will see a change in government to BN triggered a defensive response from a Kampung Jawa resident. “Do you want chaos or peace? Do you want things to be better or worse?” he asks, thinking the question was about a change in federal government. Ubah has been used as a clarion call by PR since GE13 to rally support to take over Putrajaya.
The resident, who did not share his name, dismissed the scandal at 1MDB as “merely political talk before elections”. On Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s return to active politics to battle it out with Najib, he says, “This person did a complete U-turn and is now befriending all his enemies. Can you trust such a person? Well, I think Najib is good. Yes, things are expensive now but the government is helping people with BR1M. I think Selangor people are starting to see that now,” he adds.
His sentiment was shared by Yusof Mohomed, 72. “I won’t comment about Najib and Mahathir’s fight. But there’s nothing wrong with 1MDB and the development it is bringing to this country cannot be disputed,” said the retiree, whom we met in Shah Alam.
Just minutes before that, Yusof was seen hugging the BN candidate for the Batu Tiga state seat, Datuk Mua’adzam Shah Ya’kop, during a walkabout at the night market in Seksyen 18. “It’s actually the first time I am seeing the BN candidate. I don’t know how we lost Selangor in the last two terms, but I truly hope we will win back Selangor this time,” says Yusof, who has been voting for BN for decades.
About 30 minutes away in Kampung Telok Gong, which is said to be a BN stronghold, the crowd at Azmin’s meet-the-people event to rally support for Pelabuhan Klang candidate Azmizam Zaman Huri could barely fill a canopy, though the remaining seats were quickly taken up by PKR election workers on Azmin’s arrival.
“This is considered very good, amoi, because it used to be that PKR could not even put up a flag here — it would be torn down or disappear,” says a local resident who is a PKR supporter.
‘Ripe for change after 10 years with PR’
GE14 marks Mua’adzam Shah’s debut as an election candidate. The Shah Alam Umno Youth chief is confident of taking back Batu Tiga from PH. He claims he has been serving the people there for the past few years. “The people of Selangor are also ripe for a change due to problems that they have faced from as far back as 10 years ago that have never been resolved, for example, their need for a new sports centre. I am also fairly certain that Chinese votes are coming back to us too,” he says. Asked how BN can win back Selangor, he launches into a near recitation of BN’s manifesto.
BN candidate Ben Liew Pok Boon, who is being fielded for the second time in Teratai after failing to win the seat in GE13, admitted that BN was overconfident in the past two general elections, and only sent candidates to places where they would stand at the last minute.
“This time, it’s very different. We have done a lot of work since 2013 and we are well-prepared. The people are feeling cheated by PH after two terms, during which a lot of promises were made. The people were forgiving during the first term because they were new in government. But when they still couldn’t manage basic issues like rubbish collection, water and dengue in the second term, the people have become fed up and want BN back in power,” he says. — The Edge Malaysia
