This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on March 23, 2016.

KUALA LUMPUR: Sarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Adenan Satem’s announcement on Sunday that the State Legislative Assembly would be dissolved in about a week has cast the die for the Barisan Nasional’s unbroken rule of the Borneo state to be endorsed at the ballot box yet again.

Although the last state election in 2011 was the worst outing to date for the ruling coalition in Sarawak, which won 55 seats to the opposition’s 15 and one independent member, Adenan can expect a favourable outcome in the coming round, sentiment on the ground indicates. This is despite headwinds arising from adverse economic and political developments in Sarawak and externally in the last two years.

A key factor favouring Adenan is that the state has added 11 new state constituencies since the last election, most of which are expected to add to the tally of BN seats in the bag.

This was highlighted by the polls watchdog group Bersih 2.0 and Merap, an election analysis project, when they expressed concern in January over the effects of the latest re-delineation exercise for Sarawak.

In its analysis, Merap found that based on the voting trends seen in the 13th general election, BN has a strong chance of winning 9 out of the 11 new seats. In the BN-friendly seats, it said the average size of the constituency has shrunk by between 25% and 47%.

Overall, it observed, there was a worsening of the imbalance between the number of voters among constituencies, eroding the concept of ‘one man, one vote, one value’ as the democratic norm.

Electoral boundaries aside, Adenan has a slew of positive cards at his disposal to ensure that BN comes up trumps in the impending 11th state election.

Chief among them is a feel-good factor that Adenan has brought to the state since he took over from Tun Abdul Taib Mahmud in March 2014, ringing in attention-grabbing changes after 33 years of Taib’s dominance over the lives of Sarawak’s people.

Among his eminent tactical moves are the negotiations with Putrajaya for the devolution of power to Sarawak, an issue that strikes a strong chord with the people in the state. A further acknowledgement of this, regional sentiment came when Adenan proposed last week that July 22 be declared Sarawak Independence Day and made a state holiday to mark its freedom from British colonial rule.

Another landmark step was the opening of the Sarawak civil service to holders of the Unified Examination Certificate awarded by independent Chinese schools. This has obviously gone down well with the Chinese community in the state and should yield a good dividend in the election.

Last November, Adenan announced that Sarawak was adopting English as the official language of the state administration, in addition to Bahasa Malaysia, calling it a practical and logical step.

Last Tuesday, Adenan scored a coup with indigenous groups when the state government revoked the gazette abolishing their customary rights to land earmarked for the Baram dam.

Not surprisingly, a public opinion survey on Adenan’s administration a year after he took office showed that 74% of respondents were satisfied with his government, while 68% approved of it. This was despite 56% of respondents telling the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research that corruption in the state was at a serious level and should be the top priority of the government.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat believes that Adenan has said and done the right things, he may wrest back some opposition seats in both urban and rural areas in the upcoming state election. This victory would be magnified by the nine extra BN-friendly seats he would gain from redelineation.

“The X factor is likely to be how far Sarawakian voters see themselves detached from national issues, especially in a state election,” Wong said in comments to The Edge Financial Daily.

“BN would like them to believe national troubles will stop at Sarawak borders.

On the other hand, the opposition would want the voters to think more nationally and treat the state election as a mid-term election for (Prime Minister Datuk Seri) Najib Razak, instead of a personal referendum for Adenan,” he said.