(Jan 19): Asia’s worst-performing emerging-market currency in the past year is being tipped as the one likely to suffer least from the global slings and arrows of 2017.
The Philippine peso, which weakened 4.6% in the past 12 months, is forecast to be the most resilient to external risks this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 10 foreign-exchange analysts. The Thai baht and Indian rupee together rank second, while China’s yuan is last.
“External factors won’t impact the peso much because the nation doesn’t largely depend on trade, especially with China or the US,” said Tsutomu Soma, the general manager of the fixed-income department in Tokyo at SBI Securities Co. “China-dependent economies are likely to be hit the most by Trump policies as his eyes are more on China.”
In the Jan 5-12 questionnaire, participants were asked to rate Asian currencies by their likely vulnerability to seven external factors ranging from US President-elect Donald Trump’s stated views on protectionism to the effect of oil-price swings and the prospect of an economic slowdown in China. The following tables show the results: